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Author Topic: Avalons are like Justin Bieber tickets  (Read 1154 times)
dree12
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March 19, 2013, 09:49:40 PM
 #1

I sometimes feel that the course of events in the near future will be very erratic. As soon as Avalon announces the imminent opening of Batch 3, it feels as if hundreds would rush to move assets into XBT. And once Batch 3 opens, I bet it won't be half an hour before it sells out.

The question is, why? Participating in an ASIC lottery is little better than participating in a regular lottery. Why is there such a rush to queue? Is it for the thrill, is it the gambler's fallacy, is it something else entirely? It almost feels as if Avalon will be the next SatoshiDICE—when measured by how much money people lose, and lose gladly.
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Mike Christ
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March 19, 2013, 09:51:29 PM
 #2

We need more supply to meet this demand! 

Fuzzy
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March 19, 2013, 10:30:00 PM
 #3

I sometimes feel that the course of events in the near future will be very erratic. As soon as Avalon announces the imminent opening of Batch 3, it feels as if hundreds would rush to move assets into XBT. And once Batch 3 opens, I bet it won't be half an hour before it sells out.

The question is, why? Participating in an ASIC lottery is little better than participating in a regular lottery. Why is there such a rush to queue? Is it for the thrill, is it the gambler's fallacy, is it something else entirely? It almost feels as if Avalon will be the next SatoshiDICE—when measured by how much money people lose, and lose gladly.

I'm disappointed to see people think of ASICs this way, "Participating in an ASIC lottery is little better than participating in a regular lottery.", sigh, if that's how you feel, then no one's forcing you to "gamble", but those of us with more than two braincells to rub together can see where bitcoin is going, and the truth is, mining is far more interesting than just buying and holding.

And if you can see the potential that Bitcoin has, the odds are far better than any lottery.
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March 19, 2013, 10:30:18 PM
 #4

I sometimes feel that the course of events in the near future will be very erratic. As soon as Avalon announces the imminent opening of Batch 3, it feels as if hundreds would rush to move assets into XBT. And once Batch 3 opens, I bet it won't be half an hour before it sells out.

The question is, why? Participating in an ASIC lottery is little better than participating in a regular lottery. Why is there such a rush to queue? Is it for the thrill, is it the gambler's fallacy, is it something else entirely? It almost feels as if Avalon will be the next SatoshiDICE—when measured by how much money people lose, and lose gladly.
Half hour?

Half minute is more like it.

Money will flow fast enough to probably trip an NSIS or TFi trigger. (I am joking!)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Office_of_Terrorism_and_Financial_Intelligence


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area
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March 19, 2013, 10:41:33 PM
 #5

The second 'batch' of Batch 2 took a long time to sell out, on the order of several hours, even with everything going smoothly (with confirmation emails from both the store and BitPay).

The first 'batch' of Batch 2 was a comedy of errors, so hopefully they've learned from all that.
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March 20, 2013, 01:53:22 AM
 #6



Half minute is more like it.



The ordering site will crash for sure  Cheesy  I think ngzhang should use some lottery method to decide who will get an order Cheesy

At the time batch 2 opens, there was still guess that Avalon spent all the pre-order money to only made 2 prototypes, but now it is confirmed that they can deliver

But, till May/June the network will rise to at least 200TH:

Asic miner first round  12T
Asic miner second round 50T
Avalon batch 1 20T
Avalon batch 2 40T
Avalon batch 3 60T
BFL Huh

At that time one Avalon will mine about 1-2 coins per day, fall back to the same performance of a 6 GPU machine one year ago. Of course the btc price now has made it 10x profitable than one year ago, so 2-3 month ROI still possible, but BFL is a big variable here

Bogart
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March 20, 2013, 03:27:03 AM
 #7

IMO, the potential rewards are so great that they are worth all of the risk, all of the mouse-jockeying, and all of the other BS that one needs to go through in order to obtain one.

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
simonk83
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March 20, 2013, 03:46:38 AM
 #8

Avalons are like Justin Bieber tickets


Very hard to get, and ultimately disappointing?

Smiley
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March 20, 2013, 05:00:57 AM
 #9

IMO, the potential rewards are so great that they are worth all of the risk, all of the mouse-jockeying, and all of the other BS that one needs to go through in order to obtain one.
Mind if I ask how many BTC you have earned since your delivery? (Round number is fine)


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DrG
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March 20, 2013, 06:17:54 AM
 #10

I would say it was more like a crapshoot in my experience.  I tried for batch 1 - failed.  Batch 2.1 right at opening, got to walletbit 6 times only to be told to pay like $5 or something like that.  I choose not to pay the errononeous amount and got screwed.  So I tried to Batch 2.1 (admittedly missed it at the start) and by the time I learned I had to use guest checkout my order got canceled even though the clock had over 8 minutes left.

Yeah I still feel I got screwed while others are able to order 10 units  Cry

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