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Question: Lots of people think Monday morning is when it will finally rebound due to an inflow of cash due to Dwolla and wires etc.  Where do you stand?
I do not have money in process on its way in. - 20 (12.7%)
I do not have money in process on its way in, but think there will be a lot of Monday morning buying. - 62 (39.5%)
I do not have money in process on its way in, and do NOT think there will be a lot of Monday morning buying. - 18 (11.5%)
I have money on its way in, and plan to buy BTC when it gets there. - 53 (33.8%)
I have money on its way in, but I'm probably going to withdraw it and not buy BTC. - 4 (2.5%)
Total Voters: 157

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Author Topic: Monday morning rally for real?  (Read 3405 times)
casascius
Mike Caldwell
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The Casascius 1oz 10BTC Silver Round (w/ Gold B)


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June 12, 2011, 04:16:03 AM
 #1

The talk on #bitcoin-otc is that bitcoins are a great buy now because droves of first-timers will be lining up on Monday morning to buy in.

I find myself in the doubter camp.  To me, I can't think who would rationally want to jump in on Monday morning.  Especially knowing that over 60% of the "value" of Bitcoins evaporated while no more than two percent of them moved.  (as determined by Saturday volume divided by total circulation)

Then again, a lot of people want one or two of them just for fun - the same way I bought a few BitBills even though I have no imminent plans to spend them.  They certainly have a future, and the P2P network itself is standing up well.  And things would be a lot different if every joe citizen who wanted a couple bitcoins didn't have such a difficult time getting them.

So anyway, would you mind answering my poll?

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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June 12, 2011, 04:17:56 AM
 #2

The best time to buy is after the price goes up a lot, not down, so I share your doubts.

Buy high, sell low.
dingus
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June 12, 2011, 05:23:11 AM
 #3

The best time to buy is after the price goes up a lot, not down, so I share your doubts.

Buy high, sell low.

Can't...tell...if...serious...

ding·us/ˈdiNGgəs/
Noun: Used to refer to something whose name the speaker cannot remember, is unsure of, or is humorously or euphemistically omitting
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June 12, 2011, 05:42:02 AM
 #4

The coins are still over valued.. At 30 they are insanely overvalued. 

Fundamentals do actually matter and right now you cant buy anything with bitcoins...

Hi forum: 1DDpiEt36VTJsiJunyBc3XtG6CcSAnsQ4p
imperi
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June 12, 2011, 05:45:08 AM
 #5

The coins are still over valued.. At 30 they are insanely overvalued. 

Fundamentals do actually matter and right now you cant buy anything with bitcoins...

Except drugzzz. Don't forget.
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June 12, 2011, 08:05:45 AM
 #6

The coins are still over valued.. At 30 they are insanely overvalued.  

Fundamentals do actually matter and right now you cant buy anything with bitcoins...

You can buy dollars with BTC (repeat this to yourself 10 times).  Sometimes you can buy more dollars than you paid for them (which is the whole point of buying BTC).  Sometimes less (cut your losses or wait it out).

This ability means BTC is not your average virtual currency (Liberty Reserve, PayPal USD, facebook credits, amazon gift cards, WoW gold, iTunes points, smurph berries, farmville pigs, zynga poker chips, etc. etc.)

And FYI, this is the fundamental backing bitcoin: http://bitcoin.sipa.be
(not the number of bitcoin merchants)

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June 12, 2011, 08:14:16 AM
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two percent of them moved.  (as determined by Saturday volume divided by total circulation)

Where did you get the saturday volume movement? Thanks.
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June 12, 2011, 10:03:17 AM
 #8

I think on wednesday we will see the rally. People havent yet got their funds in.

But if I had funds I would by some now.

There will be a couple of turbolent months. But I can only see bitcoin going up in the long term.
Even if there are some major bugs right now. The fact that they were found means they will get fixed.

I can imagine people looking back in a couple of months thinking they sold em to cheap now.




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June 12, 2011, 10:47:30 AM
 #9

Depending on the closing price today I think we might see a small rally on Monday. People will have the perception that if it was worth $30 a few days ago then it's got to be worth more than it is now. The ability to hold that price will be based on the amount of new investors and what the large holders decide to do.

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Keep it real


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June 12, 2011, 12:49:38 PM
 #10

Depending on the closing price today I think we might see a small rally on Monday. People will have the perception that if it was worth $30 a few days ago then it's got to be worth more than it is now. The ability to hold that price will be based on the amount of new investors and what the large holders decide to do.

Closing price?  I think you may want to use a different term than that, as the market is always fluctuating.
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June 12, 2011, 01:56:12 PM
 #11

The coins are still over valued.. At 30 they are insanely overvalued. 

Fundamentals do actually matter and right now you cant buy anything with bitcoins...

Not true! You can buy anything in my store! www.cheaplightning.com


Selling goods from Japan for BTC. http://www.cheaplightning.com
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June 12, 2011, 02:33:54 PM
 #12

The problem with using "Well, are you buying?" as a metric is that a lot of people here first bought in at like $0.50 or so. If someone invested $1000 at that price, they're already well over $30,000 in at this point. $30,000 is more than my annual stipend as a grad student. If I had that much invested in one instrument, then no, I don't think I'd be looking to put more money into it.

Ian Maxwell
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June 12, 2011, 02:38:00 PM
 #13

It'll be more likely we see Monday evening action rather than Monday morning action. Well, US evening, Japan morning

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June 12, 2011, 03:46:26 PM
 #14

Have some cash on the way to Mt Gox that I will use to buy if sub 15, if not I will probably wait and observe, it's just too crazy now

Looking for an easy way to charge bitcoins at: houseofreplicas.net, high quality replica watches. Using WP with the E-shop plug-in at the moment for charging credit-cards.
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bitcoin address: 1e8SHzCbxTJNo8LkNomeRppTSKX7rDwuB
imperi
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June 12, 2011, 03:49:25 PM
 #15

Have some cash on the way to Mt Gox that I will use to buy if sub 15, if not I will probably wait and observe, it's just too crazy now

You'll be lucky if it ever goes back down there.
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June 12, 2011, 04:04:01 PM
 #16

Have some cash on the way to Mt Gox that I will use to buy if sub 15, if not I will probably wait and observe, it's just too crazy now

You'll be lucky if it ever goes back down there.

hehe lucky maybe not since I already have some coins bought at the very peak (31$) Wink

Looking for an easy way to charge bitcoins at: houseofreplicas.net, high quality replica watches. Using WP with the E-shop plug-in at the moment for charging credit-cards.
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imperi
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June 12, 2011, 04:06:35 PM
 #17

If you look historically at the volume of $ being traded each day, compared to the price per Bitcoin, I don't think $31 was such a bad deal for over $2 million being traded daily. Even after the price crash, so much money is being traded. Bitcoins are in high demand. I think people just weren't ready for the price to go higher, and got scared, leading to a crash that experienced traders were instigating to take money from suckers. Also Mtgox isn't exactly stable so it isn't good for very high volume trading (yet).
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June 12, 2011, 05:04:02 PM
 #18

People who became interested in bitcoins after all the SR press will not have their funds ready to trade until Monday -- I know because I am in this exact situation, eagerly waiting for my Dwolla bank transfer to go through tomorrow.

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imperi
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June 12, 2011, 06:27:13 PM
 #19

People who became interested in bitcoins after all the SR press will not have their funds ready to trade until Monday -- I know because I am in this exact situation, eagerly waiting for my Dwolla bank transfer to go through tomorrow.

I started transferring money to dwolla the moment after the very first SR article was published (on wired.com), and was able to purchase on June 7th. So you are late to the show.
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June 12, 2011, 06:59:28 PM
 #20

Looks like this thread may have started a pre-market frontrun of psychological resistance @ $10

pretty thin market, interesting how the rumor mill can cause a $12 move....
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