Monday morning rally for real?

[casascius]

This is a poll I posted in the regular discussion board, until I realized that newbies probably can't vote on it.  So I thought I'd post it on the newbie board, as the newbies on the board probably have the more relevant answer.

The talk on #bitcoin-otc is that bitcoins are a great buy now because droves of first-timers will be lining up on Monday morning to buy in.

I find myself in the doubter camp.  I'm not buying BTC.  To me, I can't think who would rationally want to jump in on Monday morning.  Especially knowing that over 60% of the "value" of Bitcoins evaporated while no more than two percent of them moved.  (as determined by Saturday volume divided by total circulation).

 
 

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[stordoff]

I think we'll see a spike on Monday, but not back up to the $30 level. IMO, that was just unsustainable at the present time.

[JellyfishRancher]

The reason the value changed so much is because many people are hoarding bitcoins right now, so there are very few bids and one large sell can eat them all up. I am fairly confident that Monday morning will mean a new influx of traders as bank transfers will finally go through then. I will certainly be making a mad rush to buy BTC as soon as I can Monday when my transfer goes through, in order to get in before everyone else.

[BobPanda]

The reason the value changed so much is because many people are hoarding bitcoins right now, so there are very few bids and one large sell can eat them all up. I am fairly confident that Monday morning will mean a new influx of traders as bank transfers will finally go through then. I will certainly be making a mad rush to buy BTC as soon as I can Monday when my transfer goes through, in order to get in before everyone else.

totally agree !

[jondecker76]

I wish I would have kept some cash in MTGOX, I would have been buying all I could over the weekend!  Lesson learned, I'm going to keep a small amount (an amount that I can afford to lose if something goes wrong)  for occasions just like this

[CbineUltra]

yep just waiting for my money to get on my account... hope my bank is quicker then other peoples

[BobPanda]

yep just waiting for my money to get on my account... hope my bank is quicker then other peoples

really strange. a pending transfer from last week just came in to mtgox a few minutes ago.
so i immediately bought. 
and now let's hope for the remains to arrive soon.

[fcmatt]

since this is bitcoins... it is hard to use past experience to make any type of guess.
but normally when something falls this fast people do get excited and want to buy.
i would say by monday evening we will be back up to 16-18.

what i find curious is why would someone sell on a weekend? as in that big block. why not
wait until weds or something when there is more support?

[1.21gigawatts]

I would like to think that people have their money tied up, but dropping more than 50% doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for anyone looking to buy bitcoins.  I think the only rally we might get is the rally before the next difficulty goes up

[Zeth]

I'm planning on buying at least 3 BTC tomorrow on top of what I already have. If there's similar people, we can expect a reversal of fortune.

[wujh]

people may be too scared to buy btc as planned before.
but I did heard from a distributor, the people want to buy in btc is significantly increased since the plummet of the price.

[1.21gigawatts]

I guess there shouldn't be people complaining who are waiting on the sidelines to get in.  Of course some people are mad because of the slowness..."Took X number of days to get my money and by that time bitcoins already doubled in price"

In this case, it was a blessing in disguise

[klaus]

its a chance to get bitcoins

[Crazy]

Rally on Monday? Probably not. A margin increase at best. What you should be waiting for is the Silk-Road-Reopening rally. 

[konakevin]

I was so pissed watching BTC jump from 15 to 30 while waiting for Dwolla to set up my account.  Now I'm glad for the wait period... saved me some $$$.  I think I'll wait for it to go back under 10 before buying.

[SpaceLord]

A few things:

SmartMoney blog posted a eye-catching headline and article. There's around 800k subscribers to the SM magazine. Let's say twice that many people read the blog. Let's say 1% of these people are willing to try BitCoin out, and each of these people have 200 dollars, on average, to spend. That's 3,200,000 people with 0 BTC entering the market. That could move the MtGox price up quite a bit.

It was picked up on the Yahoo home page. That's a big deal.

It can take several days to get going with BitCoin. I give it till Tuesday afternoon to heat up. We'll see.

[jgarzik]

I find myself in the doubter camp.  I'm not buying BTC.  To me, I can't think who would rationally want to jump in on Monday morning.  Especially knowing that over 60% of the "value" of Bitcoins evaporated while no more than two percent of them moved.  (as determined by Saturday volume divided by total circulation).

Bitcoin has always been a thinly traded market.  A $150k buy causes the price to skyrocket, 1000% or more.  A $150k sell causes a huge price drop, 60% or more.  $150k is nothing to a VC or bored trader.

This is precisely how thinly traded, volatile markets behave.  Penny stocks are quite similar (including all the vocal lovers and haters on twitter and various message boards).

More importantly, on weekends, bank transfers and big money are completely asleep.

Absolutely nothing has changed fundamentally about bitcoins in the past days/weeks.

[BTCPrizes]

This is a poll I posted in the regular discussion board, until I realized that newbies probably can't vote on it.  So I thought I'd post it on the newbie board, as the newbies on the board probably have the more relevant answer.

The talk on #bitcoin-otc is that bitcoins are a great buy now because droves of first-timers will be lining up on Monday morning to buy in.

I find myself in the doubter camp.  I'm not buying BTC.  To me, I can't think who would rationally want to jump in on Monday morning.  Especially knowing that over 60% of the "value" of Bitcoins evaporated while no more than two percent of them moved.  (as determined by Saturday volume divided by total circulation).

 
 

I believe there will be a slight raise on monday but not a huge spike. Fear runs deep and many traders are probably reluctunt to buying in. We'll see more miners for sure and fewer buy-ins. Perhaps larger investors will get in at this point but we've just about broken the emotional barrier of $10... so it could really go either way.

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

A few things:

SmartMoney blog posted a eye-catching headline and article. There's around 800k subscribers to the SM magazine. Let's say twice that many people read the blog. Let's say 1% of these people are willing to try BitCoin out, and each of these people have 200 dollars, on average, to spend. That's 3,200,000 people with 0 BTC entering the market. That could move the MtGox price up quite a bit.

It was picked up on the Yahoo home page. That's a big deal.

It can take several days to get going with BitCoin. I give it till Tuesday afternoon to heat up. We'll see.

That's a very optimistic view you have there. I'd rework your formula to maybe 1/10th of 1% at best. Most people who are interested are watching from the sidelines, and having a look at the fundamentals. It'd be really neat if a few large benevolent / supportive people or entities would create some more liquidity in the market. $5m should do the trick.

[dinzy]

I expect there will definitely be a bump from all the people trying to get in.  Such as myself