STEEM price speculation thread

[grajson]

I think we are somewhere at the top of a bubble, the marketcap is just crazy. I wish the succes for tthe project but the price has to drop.

[jeffthebaker]

Ignorant people are still investing in to Steem with the mindset that they can use their Steem Power to get publicity and money from blogging. Once everyone comes to consensus that Steemit is a top-heavy pump and dump economy that only favors the handful at the top, the newbies will stop investing and stop posting. When that happens, bottom will fall out completely, and marketcap will disappear.

[European Central Bank]

Once everyone comes to consensus that Steemit is a top-heavy pump and dump economy that only favors the handful at the top, the newbies will stop investing and stop posting.

when has that ever stopped altcoin buyers? they seem to thrive on the idea of being raped by the people pulling the strings.

[raphma]

I'm selling my earnings as soons as possible... this bubble is about to explode. The numbers dont match, it's all FOMO.

[bbc.reporter]

I'm selling my earnings as soons as possible... this bubble is about to explode. The numbers dont match, it's all FOMO.

When the majority thinks one thing will happen the opposite usually happens. I have seen this over and over again like the market is playing with my mind leaving me frustrated. But yes to be safe it is better to stay away if you have missed going in at the low price before the rise. But the ones who are timing the market well did a good job trading Steem.

[grajson]

I'm selling my earnings as soons as possible... this bubble is about to explode. The numbers dont match, it's all FOMO.

When the majority thinks one thing will happen the opposite usually happens. I have seen this over and over again like the market is playing with my mind leaving me frustrated. But yes to be safe it is better to stay away if you have missed going in at the low price before the rise. But the ones who are timing the market well did a good job trading Steem.

I'v seen this opinion many many times, but how to determine what the majority is thinking? I thing that this rule is more accurate when the coin is forgotten and the price is at the bottom, most of people expect the coin will die and suddenly it's getting pumped. When The coin is pumped liske Steem right now most of people know that it will fall but the ones who are investing are counting to catch some more % before the bubble poops.

[kjadB]

Ignorant people are still investing in to Steem with the mindset that they can use their Steem Power to get publicity and money from blogging. Once everyone comes to consensus that Steemit is a top-heavy pump and dump economy that only favors the handful at the top, the newbies will stop investing and stop posting. When that happens, bottom will fall out completely, and marketcap will disappear.

good idea but initial distribution is totally awful. a reboot with a better launch is almost a certainty, and STEEM doesn't have enough head-start to overcome the perception of 'greedy founders'

[sadasa]

Ignorant people are still investing in to Steem with the mindset that they can use their Steem Power to get publicity and money from blogging. Once everyone comes to consensus that Steemit is a top-heavy pump and dump economy that only favors the handful at the top, the newbies will stop investing and stop posting. When that happens, bottom will fall out completely, and marketcap will disappear.

good idea but initial distribution is totally awful. a reboot with a better launch is almost a certainty, and STEEM doesn't have enough head-start to overcome the perception of 'greedy founders'

What was the initial distribution because it has just popped up and this is the first I have seen of it and straight to 3rd MCP  

[kjadB]

Ignorant people are still investing in to Steem with the mindset that they can use their Steem Power to get publicity and money from blogging. Once everyone comes to consensus that Steemit is a top-heavy pump and dump economy that only favors the handful at the top, the newbies will stop investing and stop posting. When that happens, bottom will fall out completely, and marketcap will disappear.

good idea but initial distribution is totally awful. a reboot with a better launch is almost a certainty, and STEEM doesn't have enough head-start to overcome the perception of 'greedy founders'

What was the initial distribution because it has just popped up and this is the first I have seen of it and straight to 3rd MCP  

a mega stealth/ninja mine from insides and a few lucky guys like smooth who mined a bag and became a 'convert', now the $$ have captured some other big crypto identities by the short hairs too (anonymint, jl777, fluffypony etc), the incentives to enrich early adopters with some degree of 'profile' is warping the common sense of usually sane individuals, we're all human after all. I can't believe these guys have been seduced this quickly, but the $$$ are large I guess. When I saw anonymint flip from criticizing smooth to jumping onboard I realised the extent of the powerful profit incentives STEEM has unearthed. Then I saw jl777 in the SuperNET slack doing the same ... STEEM is a harpie temptress come to seduce the crypto elites

[iamnotback]

VERY IMPORTANT

What many people don't realize is that STEEM's price is being debased by 100% per annum. But for STEEM POWER holders this is a 90% reverse-split, meaning they only debased effectively by 10% per annum.

This means that the price of STEEM could drop to half (decline by -50%) yet the STEEM POWER holders would only see a 5% decline (0.5 × 190% = 95%) in the exchange value of their holdings.

Another example implication is that while the STEEM price remains unchanged, the value of STEEM POWER's holdings are increasing 0.176% per day (1.9^1÷365).

Note that holders of STEEM are being debased by 0.19% per day (2^1÷365), which would also be the loss in the exchange value of STEEM holdings while the STEEM price is constant.

If this is very confusing, then you are not alone. This is difficult to explain.

I think it would have been easier to understand if the token had instead been deflationary where the STEEM needed were take from STEEM accounts instead, so that the price would always be rising. This appears to be another key flaw in the psychological design of Steem that could be corrected with a fork.

Edit:  Steem's inflationary choice somewhat disincentivizes speculators from holding STEEM (at all and instead of STEEM POWER) which might add some demand for STEEM POWER, but also reduces the amount of demand for STEEM where the funding model gets its funds.

[raphma]

I'm selling my earnings as soons as possible... this bubble is about to explode. The numbers dont match, it's all FOMO.

When the majority thinks one thing will happen the opposite usually happens. I have seen this over and over again like the market is playing with my mind leaving me frustrated. But yes to be safe it is better to stay away if you have missed going in at the low price before the rise. But the ones who are timing the market well did a good job trading Steem.

that's how FOMO works, you never know when it's gonna drop, but for sure it will drop.
i'm still using steemit and making a few bucks/day and every day i sell my earnings(only steem dollars of course... steem powers would need 2 years...)

[Master_dandosha]

VERY IMPORTANT

What many people don't realize is that STEEM's price is being debased by 100% per annum. But for STEEM POWER holders this is a 90% reverse-split, meaning they only debased effectively by 10% per annum.

This means that the price of STEEM could drop to half (decline by -50%) yet the STEEM POWER holders would only see a 5% decline (0.5 × 190% = 95%) in the exchange value of their holdings.

Another example implication is that while the STEEM price remains unchanged, the value of STEEM POWER's holdings are increasing 0.176% per day (1.9^1÷365).

Note that holders of STEEM are being debased by 0.19% per day (2^1÷365), which would also be the loss in the exchange value of STEEM holdings while the STEEM price is constant.

If this is very confusing, then you are not alone. This is difficult to explain.

I think it would have been easier to understand if the token had instead been deflationary where the STEEM needed were take from STEEM accounts instead, so that the price would always be rising. This appears to be another key flaw in the psychological design of Steem that could be corrected with a fork.

Edit:  Steem's inflationary choice somewhat disincentivizes speculators from holding STEEM (at all and instead of STEEM POWER) which might add some demand for STEEM POWER, but also reduces the amount of demand for STEEM where the funding model gets its funds.

Thank you for info , i miss the opportunity to catch some cheap steem but lucky enough to catch some at 43 .

[BellaBitBit]

I think it could easily reach a 500,000.00 market cap by this fall if not sooner.   A lot of excitement around it and people are making money..well crypto!  Is this not what we all want, a platform or app that brings newcomers to bitcoin and crypto?

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

This feels like a replay of Paycoin in some ways.

[iamnotback]

My analysis thus far:

So far, the most significant flaws I observe thus far in Steem are:

• There is too much selling pressure because users get paid 50% of blogging rewards in STEEM (and miners/liquidity providers) which can be cashed out immediately, and this amounts to > 50% debasement per year that can be sold. The users who are coming to earn money because they need or want money, so they are likely to cash out as much as they can. If rewards were predominately paid in STEEM POWER which has a 1 year weighted average divestment schedule (2 years total), then users might be less incentivized to signup?
• The dysfunctional voting+ranking system and the whales having too much influence needs overhaul, but at least this is probably doable. However there is a tension between the promotional hype value of very high rewards (that motivate users to join) and fairer distribution of rewards.
• Eternal 100% debasement is not sustainable. The debasement rate should be supported by actual transaction fees and drop to that level at some point.
• The 80-90% "pre"-mine is resented by many potential investors who could otherwise be supporting the funding model while transactions are given time to be developed and ramp up. Note that new signups need to have some tokens, else they have no stake-weight to even post or get started with. Perhaps we could use UNPROFITABLE proof-of-work mining instead to get them enough tokens to get rolling in a decentralized paradigm?
• Nothing is incentivizing transfers other than cashing out. I have a radical proposal in mind to improve this.

Whales will become totally irrelevant when the user base and posting volume increases by 10x or 100x or even 1000x. There just aren't that many whales and whales have the same voting power restrictions as anyone else. A rare whale sighting will be a big deal.

You presume all whales are benevolent. Stake will eventually end up in a power-law distribution, because perpetual 100% debasement is not sustainable (even the transactions fees of the entire earth could not support it).

Also it is incorrect to say they play by the same rules. 3 x 3 = 9 is not 1/2 of 6 x 6 = 36.

Any way, I have proposed a partial solution.

[magicalacademy]

http://thestringpuller.com/2016/07/a-steeming-bubble/

[The1crypto]

This topic looks dead, nobody cares about stem price any more

[The1crypto]

It looks like nobody cares indeed. It's dropping like that

[maralet2020]

it will never go above eth my friends. eth btc dash are the ultimates.

[bananadines]

Let's see how long it could maintain being at 3rd place on CMC. I think it will be quite a feat for STEEM to stay at the 3rd place for one year. Do you think it will stay there for a long time or will we see it go down quickly just like the others?

Judging from the hate it is receiving in the forum it has really rattled the cage.

I am sure that STEEM will get some more attention in the bullish phases. It will be stable and grow up a little bit. But I am ot sure how long this will hold on