Market Penetration

[Melbustus]

This past week, my godmother, my brother-in-law, and a friend from highschool have all asked me where to get bitcoins. They all originally heard of bitcoin through me, but now they've obviously been exposed to the hype in the past few weeks and are now of the "crap, he was right, I have to get in" mentality.

Contrast this to a couple friends I introduced bitcoin to last year, both of whom I had long technical/economic conversations with, and both of whom went and did their own research, and believe that bitcoin is a potential paradigm shift for reasons that they understand well.

The people who are coming to me now wanting me to buy them bitcoin probably couldn't explain the basics. They just have some rough sense of it being "digital gold" and look to the recent price run-up as proof.

Obviously unsophisticated people jumping on the bandwagon of something they don't fully understand *because* of a price-runup, is a big market-top red flag, but, FWIW, I'm not selling. Again, it's a long game, and I believe we're still extremely undervalued. Yes, we can easily get an insta 50%+ crash one day, but that day could be north of $200; I have no idea, hence the long-term hold.

I'm not entirely sure why I'm posting this; just interested in other people's experiences to try and get some rough sense of how many people have heard of bitcoin at this point.

[BTC Books]

Yes.  My experience has been roughly similar.

I have a couple people bugging me about getting in - I'm making them swear to hold for at least a year, and walking them through it.

Oddly enough though, my first convert was almost a year and a half ago:  and someone with no technical or internet knowledge at all.  Just a really good, instinctive understanding of money.

I know people all over the political map, and I haven't noticed any difference in enthusiasm between right or left wingers.  Which seems anti-intuitive; to me, anyway.  But what I have noticed is that people who travel a lot and have more than one language seem to just get it.

[Herodes]

I told a friend about bitcoin before the olympics when it was at 6 and told him he could probably double what he invested. He didn't invest. Numerous other times after that I told him the price of bitcoins, but he didn't act.

[Tirapon]

I have a feeling there will be lots of people here who told their friends a while ago, but nobody took an interest. Those same people will be taking an interest now with the recent price rises. Unfortunately, I imagine a lot of them will jump in now not wanting to miss out, but I personally can't see this rally being sustainable. I think a lot of people will get burned this way.

[BTC Books]

I have a feeling there will be lots of people here who told their friends a while ago, but nobody took an interest. Those same people will be taking an interest now with the recent price rises. Unfortunately, I imagine a lot of them will jump in now not wanting to miss out, but I personally can't see this rally being sustainable. I think a lot of people will get burned this way.

So you believe that the more people who buy in, the more likely it is to go down?

 

[Herodes]

I have a feeling there will be lots of people here who told their friends a while ago, but nobody took an interest. Those same people will be taking an interest now with the recent price rises. Unfortunately, I imagine a lot of them will jump in now not wanting to miss out, but I personally can't see this rally being sustainable. I think a lot of people will get burned this way.

Lots of people jumped onto the bubble in the summer 2011. It went all the way to 32, then crashed and went down to 2. However, if the people who invested at 32 had been holding and offloading today, they would've doubled their money in less than 2 years. That kind of payback many people would've been very happy with. Many don't understand the fundamentals, and are impatient and jumps onto whatever wave they can catch, and if the price drops, they panic sell and lose out. There's no loss until the loss has been realized. Also the golden rule: Never invest more than you can affort to lose!

[Tirapon]

I have a feeling there will be lots of people here who told their friends a while ago, but nobody took an interest. Those same people will be taking an interest now with the recent price rises. Unfortunately, I imagine a lot of them will jump in now not wanting to miss out, but I personally can't see this rally being sustainable. I think a lot of people will get burned this way.

So you believe that the more people who buy in, the more likely it is to go down?

 

No, I think that there will be lots of people buying as we get to the peak (whenever that happens) and they will get cold feet and sell when they see the price dropping. I'm guessing the same happened in the 2011 bubble.

[Tirapon]

I have a feeling there will be lots of people here who told their friends a while ago, but nobody took an interest. Those same people will be taking an interest now with the recent price rises. Unfortunately, I imagine a lot of them will jump in now not wanting to miss out, but I personally can't see this rally being sustainable. I think a lot of people will get burned this way.

Lots of people jumped onto the bubble in the summer 2011. It went all the way to 32, then crashed and went down to 2. However, if the people who invested at 32 had been holding and offloading today, they would've doubled their money in less than 2 years. That kind of payback many people would've been very happy with. Many don't understand the fundamentals, and are impatient and jumps onto whatever wave they can catch, and if the price drops, they panic sell and lose out. There's no loss until the loss has been realized. Also the golden rule: Never invest more than you can affort to lose!

^this, pretty much

[BTC Books]

I have a feeling there will be lots of people here who told their friends a while ago, but nobody took an interest. Those same people will be taking an interest now with the recent price rises. Unfortunately, I imagine a lot of them will jump in now not wanting to miss out, but I personally can't see this rally being sustainable. I think a lot of people will get burned this way.

So you believe that the more people who buy in, the more likely it is to go down?

 

No, I think that there will be lots of people buying as we get to the peak (whenever that happens) and they will get cold feet and sell when they see the price dropping. I'm guessing the same happened in the 2011 bubble.

Ahh.  Yes, I agree.  Hand-holding is required, for those you've introduced to the coin.

I do think that whole cold feet thing is less likely this time around, though.  There's a lot more history for people to look at.

And a lot more obvious nastiness in the world of banking and finance, too.

[BitPirate]

^ this. Many more hands now too.

Look at the chain-fork sell-off. Blink and you miss it.

Most people will now have their finger on the "buy" button when the alarms ring.

[Tirapon]

You both make a fair point, but I'm sure the cycle of spike followed by crash to a higher low will recur several times on the way up. If I felt confident picking the tops I'm sure there'd be a nice profit to be made...

[BTC Books]

You both make a fair point, but I'm sure the cycle of spike followed by crash to a higher low will recur several times on the way up. If I felt confident picking the tops I'm sure there'd be a nice profit to be made...

Yeah.  I gave up on that.

I buy (now that I'm done mining) and spend and hold.  No more of that trading crap for me - I'm just no good at it.

[BitPirate]

You both make a fair point, but I'm sure the cycle of spike followed by crash to a higher low will recur several times on the way up. If I felt confident picking the tops I'm sure there'd be a nice profit to be made...

When you're looking at a market expanding from zero to , it's not worth it. Each coin you potentially buy back at a higher price is magnifying reductions in your total realised profit when you want to cash out.

[bitcoiner32]

In response to the OP, I got into bitcoin after hearing about it on a This Week in Tech podcast in early 2011. Made a bunch of money in the runup to $32, so I told my family about it. They invested as the price was falling back down. They lost a bunch of money but hung onto their bitcoins. Now they are way up (obviously) but I still haven't been able to convince as many people as I thought I could to buy bitcoin. I'm gonna keep working on it gently though since I also believe bitcoins are still way undervalued. $70 will look cheap when its at $500 in a few years, IMO.


Also I put on my business website that I accept bitcoins over 2 months ago, but haven't gotten a single inquiry yet. I'm sure that'll change sometime relatively soon though. And as soon as they have those bitcoin ATMs available for a decent price I'm putting one in our reception area and offering a discount for people who use it.