Estimating price based upon cost to mine?

[Elwar]

Has anyone done any calculations on the Bitcoin price based upon the cost to mine?

A quick check at this calculator: http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator shows that at the current difficulty, a $1,500 60GH/s mining rig will produce ฿189 or $11,921 per month.

I know that those ASICs are just starting to ship out, but at this price it would be smarter to buy an ASIC than to put that $1,500 in MtGox.

Once those ASICs start shipping on the level of being able to buy a PS3, the price of Bitcoin will likely more closely mirror the cost to produce as opposed to being so high above the manufacturing costs.

How many ASICs are currently on order and how much will this affect the difficulty? That is key to determining the target price level.

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[BTC Books]

I mined for a long time, until last August - and it just doesn't make sense anymore with the numbers as they are.  Not for me, anyway.

In 776 blocks your numbers will change drastically.  Difficulty is scheduled to go up by roughly one million.  Even under the almost impossible scenario that you get your 60 Gigahash ASIC in three weeks from today, difficulty will go up again just as you receive it, and probably by a lot more.

But reality is, if you order an ASIC today, you won't see it for four or five months at the earliest.

At a difficulty of 25 million or so, you're looking at 36 BTC a month.  Although yes, probably at well over $100/BTC.

Spend $1500 now buying BTC and you're at about the same number.  Unless it really takes off - then you've lost money.

Bird in the hand...  That's why I quit mining.

Fair disclosure:  I'll be getting a Jalapeno (or something similar), hooking it up to a <5W Sheeva Plug I've got laying around, and solo mining just to support the network.  I could get lucky...

[Littleshop]

I know that those ASICs are just starting to ship out, but at this price it would be smarter to buy an ASIC than to put that $1,500 in MtGox.