Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom looks even nicer today:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    196,730,893,058 (-7.85%)
Adjust time:    After 814 Blocks, About 6.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,390,754,658 GH/s

Wish we had the reason behind drop, but hard to argue with it very nice change for us miner's.   Also on value around 5 dollar or so up on coinbase (it went down for a little bit to high 640's, but went back up pretty soon after).   Bot little gain on value and decent looking drop looks great to me.  

I am hoping I am wrong on guess and it keeps going down on difficulty.  Only thing that scares me is if it is someones upgrading.  In that case could be a temporary drop and end up with a bigger hash rate in the end.  Guess that would be the pessimistic possible view.

any crazy big s-9 upgrade is not sensible.

but another miner like bitfury,avalon, insosilicon(sp) could do that.

As long as the s-9 is the only working .1 watt machine bitmaintech can go slow and force all of us to go slow.

they have no need to rush as we have  past the ½ing and they are the only game in town

The thing I keep thinking of is most of the "big mines" for lack of better term already have put in the money for info-structure. So I don't see a lot of them going away unless they go the way of say SP and go bankrupt.   I think a lot of these mines will upgrade just depends when.  And honestly some of these mines might be in places where electricity is so cheap a S7 upgrade might make sense in some cases.

But I could be all off base on it with upgrades.  I just am surprised on drop I thought we would have seen it sooner.  But it is a little bit smaller drop on bitwisdom (although not by much).

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    198,646,231,015 (-6.95%)
Adjust time:    After 667 Blocks, About 5.1 days
Hashrate(?):    1,402,236,920 GH/s

[1714510383]

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[1714510383]

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[1714510383]

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[petahashminer]

18.07.2016 23:22   421344
29.07.2016 06:57   422705


1361   blocks
Estimated diff change -8.38%   
Estimated diff  195604406292

seems nothing has changed since yesterday.

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   197,393,792,649 (-7.54%)
Adjust time:   After 599 Blocks, About 4.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,403,757,498 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.1 minutes
3 blocks: 33.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   11:40 (2.6 minutes ago)


Numbers are decent.

As for what happens next  1ph farms or bigger with 5 cent power or less can stay with s-7's they should wait as the s-9 are costly.

but slow replacement may be what all the farms will do.

since the s-7 at 8 cent power or less make money

a 200 s-7 farm is 940th
it makes 190 usd a day at 8 cent
it makes 250 usd  a day at  7 cent
it makes  322 usd a day at 6 cent
it makes 375 usd a day at 5 cent.

if diff drops to 199
it makes 241 a day at 8 cent
it makes 307 a day at 7 cent
it makes 373 a day at 6 cent
it makes 409 a day at 5 cent


so the s-7 farms will be slow to switch to s-9

s-5 will look to switch to s-7 over s-9

if they have 3 cent 4 cent or 5 cent power

[Mikestang]

Looks like a little upturn in network hash power, possible some of this drop really was old gear coming off line and we'll see a bit of the new gear start to come back in and take its place.  Although it would be nice to see a few periods of negative adjustment while maintaining a strong btc price.

[topiOleg]

The upturn is very small, maybe around 194 diff in the last two days. So the difficulty might really end around 199 this period, with the possibility to go bit down next difficulty period as well (maybe as low as 190-195 if not many new units plugs in).

[philipma1957]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   199,085,409,986 (-6.75%)
Adjust time:   After 504 Blocks, About 3.8 days

Hashrate(?):   1,417,088,328 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.0 minutes >>>>>>>>>> this is close to -10%
3 blocks: 32.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   


http://nextdifficulty.com/

NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE
Current Hashrate: 1398453 TH/s* - Current price $ 648.001
Conservative: -7.6% -8.3% Continous: -10.4 %
Next Difficulty Value:195778120560
Change will happen on appr. August 3, 2016, 4:07 am
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 506
Bitcoin block reward halving date: July 10, 2016, 12:06 pm or -20 days
Last updated July 30, 2016, 8:46 am GMT, last block: 422854


http://bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks   422856
Total BTC   15.786M
 
Difficulty   213492501108
Estimated   203709668234 in 504 blks
 
Network total   1467345.115 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.76 / 625 s  >>>> this is about 7.84%


We are hanging in there maybe we end up -7.5%

[TheYankeesWin!]

We look good!


http://nextdifficulty.com/

Conservative = -8.1%
Current?       = -8.6%
Continous     = -10.1%


All of those are very good numbers.

[cpfreeplz]

We look good!


http://nextdifficulty.com/

Conservative = -8.1%
Current?       = -8.6%
Continous     = -10.1%


All of those are very good numbers.

-8.3 would be the best number I have a feeling if I don't win I'll have been very close!

I'd have to assume it's going to be somewhere around -8% or -9% with the current trends.

[philipma1957]

302 to go means we made 1714 blocks


https://blockchain.info/blocks


423058 (Main Chain)   2016-07-31 19:27:36

421334 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:07:12


12 days     12 x 144  = 1728
20 hours    20 x    6  =   120
20 mins       2 x    1  =       2

1850 = 0%

1714/1850 -1 = -7.35135%  is real time number


things have picked up a bit so -6 to -8  look to be where we will end up

[TheYankeesWin!]

BTC price keeps dropping it is down to 620 on coinbase!

[philipma1957]

We could use a drop to 550 even to 480 usd.  That could really drop difficulty a lot.

I purchased 300 worth of coin at 619 a few minutes ago.

at a 480 price  8 cent power is a loser for the s-7


that will knock out some farms

at the current 619 price  an s-7 at 10 cent power earns 10 cents a day



I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

[notlist3d]

We could use a drop to 550 even to 480 usd.  That could really drop difficulty a lot.

I purchased 300 worth of coin at 619 a few minutes ago.

at a 480 price  8 cent power is a loser for the s-7


that will knock out some farms

at the current 619 price  an s-7 at 10 cent power earns 10 cents a day



I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

I'm still hoping for it to go up in value myself.  Today was a drop for sure on Coinbase around 640 dropping to daily low of around 616, which was around 24 dollars.  So it was not huge but still decent.  But we have gone back up currently on Coinbase to 623 meaning in past 24 hours a drop of 17 or do dollars.  So after rebound not a horrible drop.

I have had a busy week so kinda less watching price then I normally do.  But I consider myself a long term holder for the most part so dropping is not my goal even in short term.  But hard to feel to bad when looking at current bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    199,586,743,634 (-6.51%)
Adjust time:    After 237 Blocks, About 1.8 days
Hashrate(?):    1,453,881,284 GH/s

[Biodom]

I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

[philipma1957]

I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

here is how I look at it .  i took the risk of early adoption of the s-9 .  I had a lot of people say it would never work out.

so far so good.

I do not want
1)  btc to drop to 480 usd
2) s-9 to raise to 2500

either one is good for me and both will not happen.

so far  bitmaintech has stopped selling s-9's this also works for me.

Basically anything  that prevents massive diff increases works better for s-9 owners.

to me the absolute worse thing for btc would be for bitmaintech to open a batch of s-9's at 1200 usd today.

I have accepted that to mine you need 8 cent or lower power to stand a chance  which I do have in the solar array.  the big problem is I do not have  20 or 30 kwatts of it.

I continue to mine and hope for the best.

and yes coins can go to 2000 usd as that would work for me.

[HerbPean]

I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

here is how I look at it .  i took the risk of early adoption of the s-9 .  I had a lot of people say it would never work out.

so far so good.

I do not want
1)  btc to drop to 480 usd
2) s-9 to raise to 2500

either one is good for me and both will not happen.

so far  bitmaintech has stopped selling s-9's this also works for me.

Basically anything  that prevents massive diff increases works better for s-9 owners.

to me the absolute worse thing for btc would be for bitmaintech to open a batch of s-9's at 1200 usd today.

I have accepted that to mine you need 8 cent or lower power to stand a chance  which I do have in the solar array.  the big problem is I do not have  20 or 30 kwatts of it.

I continue to mine and hop for the best.

and yes coins can go to 2000 usd as that would work for me.

Yeah, hope you don't get fudge as much as I have with the S7 batch 1 ...

This is worst investment I made so far.

EDIT: that is exactly what made me not buy any S9 for now

[Biodom]

I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

here is how I look at it .  i took the risk of early adoption of the s-9 .  I had a lot of people say it would never work out.

so far so good.

I do not want
1)  btc to drop to 480 usd
2) s-9 to raise to 2500

either one is good for me and both will not happen.

so far  bitmaintech has stopped selling s-9's this also works for me.

Basically anything  that prevents massive diff increases works better for s-9 owners.

to me the absolute worse thing for btc would be for bitmaintech to open a batch of s-9's at 1200 usd today.

I have accepted that to mine you need 8 cent or lower power to stand a chance  which I do have in the solar array.  the big problem is I do not have  20 or 30 kwatts of it.

I continue to mine and hop for the best.

and yes coins can go to 2000 usd as that would work for me.

Yeah, hope you don't get fudge as much as I have with the S7 batch 1 ...

This is worst investment I made so far.

EDIT: that is exactly what made me not buy any S9 for now

Right! I don't think coin being $480 will work well for even current s9 owners, unless they want to buy more.
I think that phil's scenarios are optimizing for his current situation and plans, not necessarily for most people involved, but this is just my opinion.
So far, everything worked as he anticipated, though.

[philipma1957]

I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

here is how I look at it .  i took the risk of early adoption of the s-9 .  I had a lot of people say it would never work out.

so far so good.

I do not want
1)  btc to drop to 480 usd
2) s-9 to raise to 2500

either one is good for me and both will not happen.

so far  bitmaintech has stopped selling s-9's this also works for me.

Basically anything  that prevents massive diff increases works better for s-9 owners.

to me the absolute worse thing for btc would be for bitmaintech to open a batch of s-9's at 1200 usd today.

I have accepted that to mine you need 8 cent or lower power to stand a chance  which I do have in the solar array.  the big problem is I do not have  20 or 30 kwatts of it.

I continue to mine and hop for the best.

and yes coins can go to 2000 usd as that would work for me.

Yeah, hope you don't get fudge as much as I have with the S7 batch 1 ...

This is worst investment I made so far.

EDIT: that is exactly what made me not buy any S9 for now

Right! I don't think coin being $480 will work well for even current s9 owners, unless they want to buy more.
I think that phil's scenarios are optimizing for his current situation and plans, not necessarily for most people involved, but this is just my opinion.
So far, everything worked as he anticipated, though.

yeah  i wanted the s-5 long slow diff jump to repeat  as it was the only way I could earn a profit on the s-9  so far it has happened.

but I will need 2 more months of really flat growth  to be pretty sure of profit.  So I mentioned a price drop to 480 usd since it kills the s-7  thus dropping diff rates...

there are a lot of ways bitmaintech can play it as bitcoin is now pretty much in their hands.

they could simply build out s-9's like mad and sell them cheap  they have the money to do that  but I don't see it as a good move on their part.

maybe it is.

[HerbPean]

The diff hashrate is back up big time @bitcoinwisdom

[gt_addict]

Looks like a sharp climb back up  On a plus note its heading for my pick 

[notlist3d]

I really want a btc price drop  to the 480-550 price range

1. you want btc to be at $480
2. you want bitmain to increase the price of S9

I think both of these would be beneficial to almost nobody, except those who trade stuff back and forth.

a. I want the price of btc to stay stable OR slowly increase.
b. I want bitmain to sell S9 for $1200 because this is what they are worth.

Cheers.

here is how I look at it .  i took the risk of early adoption of the s-9 .  I had a lot of people say it would never work out.

so far so good.

I do not want
1)  btc to drop to 480 usd
2) s-9 to raise to 2500

either one is good for me and both will not happen.

so far  bitmaintech has stopped selling s-9's this also works for me.

Basically anything  that prevents massive diff increases works better for s-9 owners.

to me the absolute worse thing for btc would be for bitmaintech to open a batch of s-9's at 1200 usd today.

I have accepted that to mine you need 8 cent or lower power to stand a chance  which I do have in the solar array.  the big problem is I do not have  20 or 30 kwatts of it.

I continue to mine and hope for the best.

and yes coins can go to 2000 usd as that would work for me.

Bitmain stopped selling batches for the moment, but it does not make me think they have stopped S9 production.   I can't imagine having a head start on all other companies right not and not be producing gear.  They could focus on internal or big sales temporary and that would make no S9's for a certain time period for us hobby miners.   I guess I'm kinda a pessimist on it.

If your a optimist you might go to the conclusion they are stuck on production of chips, or researching how to bring down cost's more.   These ideas would not make more more new hashing power so likely best for hobby miners in this section... but again I'm not sure what to think.   

Bitwisdom is up a bit:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    201,749,088,686 (-5.50%)
Adjust time:    After 141 Blocks, About 1.0 days
Hashrate(?):    1,531,566,361 GH/s

And BTC dropped a little on Coinbase.   It has slowed the drop and went up slighly but still a decent loss from height of 23 hours of around 636 to around 615 currently.