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Author Topic: Steem pyramid scheme revealed  (Read 107001 times)
iamnotback
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July 25, 2016, 03:20:36 AM
 #101

One strategy might be to signup as many free 10 SP accounts

The free offer is "$10 worth of SP" (i.e. 3 SP at present) not 10 SP. The 10 SP may have been the offer at one time but not any more.

Ah I see. So the point remains that users need to want to stay on the site, else they will have many abandoned 3 SP accounts.

No doubt. Of course nothing prevents those users from coming back later to claim the accounts if the value goes up. There is no maintenance cost to idle accounts that don't use bandwidth.

See the edit on my prior post.

Price going up doesn't help them reach 30 SP easier. Actually it may become more difficult as more bloggers will be competing.
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July 25, 2016, 03:24:21 AM
 #102

One strategy might be to signup as many free 10 SP accounts

The free offer is "$10 worth of SP" (i.e. 3 SP at present) not 10 SP. The 10 SP may have been the offer at one time but not any more.

Ah I see. So the point remains that users need to want to stay on the site, else they will have many abandoned 3 SP accounts.

No doubt. Of course nothing prevents those users from coming back later to claim the accounts if the value goes up. There is no maintenance cost to idle accounts that don't use bandwidth.

See the edit on my prior post.

Price going up doesn't help them reach 30 SP easier. Actually it may become more difficult as more bloggers will be competing.

By claim, I meant use, not come back just for the cashout. You are still viewing this from a crypto coin perspective where it is all about getting at those coins (like a rat killing itself pressing the button hoping that coins will come out of the chute) not a social media perspective.

If Steem becomes very popular then people who signed up early but stopped using it will probably want to come back. This applies even with no rewards at all. I signed up for twitter very early but never used it for years until it became popular.
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July 25, 2016, 03:31:06 AM
 #103

One strategy might be to signup as many free 10 SP accounts

The free offer is "$10 worth of SP" (i.e. 3 SP at present) not 10 SP. The 10 SP may have been the offer at one time but not any more.

Ah I see. So the point remains that users need to want to stay on the site, else they will have many abandoned 3 SP accounts.

No doubt. Of course nothing prevents those users from coming back later to claim the accounts if the value goes up. There is no maintenance cost to idle accounts that don't use bandwidth.

See the edit on my prior post.

Price going up doesn't help them reach 30 SP easier. Actually it may become more difficult as more bloggers will be competing.

By claim, I meant use, not come back just for the cashout. You are still viewing this from a crypto coin perspective where it is all about getting at those coins (like a rat killing itself pressing the button hoping that coins will come out of the chute) not a social media perspective.

If Steem becomes very popular then people who signed up early but stopped using it will probably want to come back. This applies even with no rewards at all. I signed up for twitter very early but never used it for years until it became popular.

I knew what you meant and my point is it won't easier for them to get their 30 SP at that point, so they may not be motivated to stay after they come back.

Also many will forget/lose their password.

I think we can estimate the attrition rate by combining these two resources:

https://steemd.com/distribution
https://steemle.com/charts.php (Account creations per day)

So I count 6895 account creations past 7 days. So we can see that (13,062 - 6895) ÷ (34,175 - 6895) = 22% remain active. So the attrition rate appears to be over 80%. Appear to be very close to the computation of those who didn't reach power down level.

Edit: the data is here that 29k of 34k (85%) have not reached power down level and majority (of them or new signups?) were not active in the last 7 days:

https://steemd.com/distribution

15 - 20% stickiness I think would actually be okay. We have to see if that is the case longer-term. But it also means that most of the free giveaway will probably end up abandoned, so the argument that it is diluting the insiders is probably not entirely correct.
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July 25, 2016, 03:45:04 AM
 #104

I also have my doubts about whether DPoS is scalable without being centralized.

The quantity of delegates obviously has to be high enough to prevent ease of collusion.  When Larimer was originally trying to change this number to 20 in Bitshares, I was like..wtf?  Are you serious?  20 people can collude easily.  Nearly everyone thought it was a horrible idea, but he was hell bent on making the system a "profitable DAC" over anything else.  It is best not to consider Bitshares a decentralized system, but the first bucket shop without a single point of failure.  Steem is essentially the same thing except a non-single point of failure Reddit hybrid.  It's not a decentralized currency or anything.  

There would need to be something like the original 101 delegate number or more to be considered remotely decentralized.  I'm not exactly a Vitalik fanboy or anything (obviously), but I think he considers this number needed to be around 1001.

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July 25, 2016, 03:48:37 AM
 #105

15 - 20% stickiness I think would actually be okay. We have to see if that is the case longer-term...

https://blog.kissmetrics.com/9-metrics/

Users    1 Million +

At its peak, the social network was processing more than 30,000 signup requests an hour. It is estimated that 20% of sign ups remain active on the site one week after registration.

In October 2014, Ello reorganized itself as a benefit corporation and raised a further $5.5 million in venture capital.

At 3000 signups per day with 20% retention, Steem will require ~5 years to reach only a million uses.

It has to be able to cross the chasm from its one-degree of relation to a Blocknerd to a viral mass audience if you want to see it break out beyond Bitcoin's audience significantly.
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July 25, 2016, 03:52:35 AM
 #106

The funny part is, Anonymint is worried about some parts of this thing being unworkable when Larimer broke literally every single social contract possible in Bitshares.  If you are required to slap yourself in the face 10 times to log in to make this thing functional and keep going, that is what Larimer is going to hard fork it to.  The entire thing could be completely different or wiped at any day.  It's possible Larimer himself taught Vitalik how to hard fork.

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iamnotback
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July 25, 2016, 03:57:48 AM
 #107

The funny part is, Anonymint is worried about some parts of this thing being unworkable when Larimer broke literally every single social contract possible in Bitshares.  If you are required to slap yourself in the face 10 times to log in to make this thing functional and keep going, that is what Larimer is going to hard fork it to.  The entire thing could be completely different or wiped at any day.  It's possible Larimer himself taught Vitalik how to hard fork.

The disabling of signups was done on Steemit, but signups continued on Steem blockchain.

They are hardforking Steem on the 26th to disable liquidity rewards as that was being gamed.

They are also changing some of other block chain protocols on the 26th.

But they do say it is still in Beta.

I agreed with your other post about DPoS being vulnerable to centralized.
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July 25, 2016, 04:04:24 AM
 #108

Correct, Dan knew that we could only afford 20 miners at first, but when the community grows, so will the miners.

...

When DPOS grows, so will the number of miners.

Is that correct  Huh

As Steem grows it will have more users and more bandwidth requirements.

The cost of DPoS is 0(n2) where n is number of nodes because all transactions must be relayed to all nodes. So you can't scale the miners to help scale the bandwidth. That is precisely my point the Graphene isn't really scalable.

That was the most significant design issue that I had to solve in my design. If you pass all transactions around to all nodes, you can't scale decentralized because the communication load scales quadratically in number of nodes. But if you don't pass all transactions to all nodes then you break Nash equilibrium. But I think I found a solution to that.
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July 25, 2016, 04:12:14 AM
 #109

The 50,000 Steem Dollar question on everyone's mind is weather or not STEEM will become more "unstoplable" like Ethereum Classic, or more centralized like Ethereum Core.

For the most part no one (with a few exceptions) is even asking that question. The 50K SD question is whether enough users will sign up to make it worth caring. That was the real issue with Bitshares as far as I can tell, not whether it had the right number of delegates or not. No users = no one cares = number of delegates doesn't matter.
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July 25, 2016, 04:13:12 AM
 #110

You forgot to mention all the alts:

https://steemit.com/@steem/transfers
https://steemit.com/@administrator/transfers
https://steemit.com/@admin/transfers
https://steemit.com/@moderator/transfers
https://steemit.com/@blocktrades/transfers
https://steemit.com/@steemit70/transfers
https://steemit.com/@dan/transfers
https://steemit.com/@steemit40/transfers
https://steemit.com/@steemit78/transfers
https://steemit.com/@steemit77/transfers
https://steemit.com/@steemit76/transfers

This is by no means a definitive list. Most of the steempower is held by a few individuals, and is not sustainable AT ALL(ned, dan, berniesanders, smooth, blocktrades)

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July 25, 2016, 04:15:19 AM
 #111


"blocktrades" is not an alt, it is an identified person/business who has done work for Steemit as a contractor. Obviously "dan" is a founder, but I wouldn't' call it an "alt" of steemit (there are other well-known founder accounts). There rest are indeed alts that they identified as such during the launch.
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July 25, 2016, 04:23:10 AM
 #112

You guys got me. What is an 'alt'? I infer it means insider, but why name it 'alt'? Edit: you must be mean multiple alternative accounts for the same insiders.

The 50,000 Steem Dollar question on everyone's mind is weather or not STEEM will become more "unstoplable" like Ethereum Classic, or more centralized like Ethereum Core.

For the most part no one (with a few exceptions) is even asking that question. The 50K SD question is whether enough users will sign up to make it worth caring. That was the real issue with Bitshares as far as I can tell, not whether it had the right number of delegates or not. No users = no one cares = number of delegates doesn't matter.

Agreed the blockchain specifics can hypothetically be improved over time. The most important for Steem (and any competitor) is the usership adoption and qualities of the community building and content. The blockchain aspect is important for the network effects which requires decentralization, etc, but that isn't the highest priority out of the gate. First priority is prove their enough usership value to kickstart the ecosystem. Note network effects could accelerate usership, but they are not usually impactful immediately on launch.
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July 25, 2016, 04:25:33 AM
 #113

You guys got me. What is an 'alt'? I infer it means insider, but why name it 'alt'?

Alternate/sybil account.
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July 25, 2016, 04:52:44 AM
 #114

It is a lot of work to create a social networking site with a rich enough feature set to attract users outside of some highly motivated demographic.

Looks to me that Steem is getting mostly people who know someone affiliated with blockchains and/or are trend followers and early adopters of new ways to make money online.

To cross that chasm to be able to have viral spread of any user on facebook, requires you have a much more rich feature set than Steem has now. Most users would come to Steem and not find any thing interesting to them, nor any activity they are interested to do.

It is not easy and they have a lot of work ahead of them.

And any competitor will have huge amount of work ahead and catch up.

And there is no guarantee of gaining mass adoption. It is not clear that this model of paying most users nearly nothing and a few others large rewards adds anything to social networking that users really want and need.

I am thinking will need more enticement to cross the chasm. People basically use social networking for relationships and other things that interest and entertain them. The activity value is probably more important than any payout, unless you can really replace their day job, but can you with this model?

The model that might work is the professional bloggers earn a great income on the site, then the other users come there for them and the community. But so far, I don't see what sort of trend developing on Steem, but it is early still.
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July 25, 2016, 05:36:41 AM
 #115

It is a lot of work to create a social networking site with a rich enough feature set to attract users outside of some highly motivated demographic.

Looks to me that Steem is getting mostly people who know someone affiliated with blockchains and/or are trend followers and early adopters of new ways to make money online.

To cross that chasm to be able to have viral spread of any user on facebook, requires you have a much more rich feature set than Steem has now. Most users would come to Steem and not find any thing interesting to them, nor any activity they are interested to do.

It is not easy and they have a lot of work ahead of them.

And any competitor will have huge amount of work ahead and catch up.

And there is no guarantee of gaining mass adoption. It is not clear that this model of paying most users nearly nothing and a few others large rewards adds anything to social networking that users really want and need.

I am thinking will need more enticement to cross the chasm. People basically use social networking for relationships and other things that interest and entertain them. The activity value is probably more important than any payout, unless you can really replace their day job, but can you with this model?

The model that might work is the professional bloggers earn a great income on the site, then the other users come there for them and the community. But so far, I don't see what sort of trend developing on Steem, but it is early still.

While I don't necessarily disagree with this analysis, I think it's too specific. I want to see exit polling data. From the few rage quit posts I've read, it sound like the same threatening tone of #7: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@generalizethis/a-shitcoiner-s-guide-to-shitcoin-logic

Are they seriously abandoning their account to make comments on reddit that will never earn them a cent or collect curator rewards on another site that doesn't yet exist? Steemit is the only game in town (that pays in something other than karma hugs) and likely the payout today will increase over time if the site is successful--so either these people are irrational or full of shit.

There are plenty of metrics that could help measure this, but I'd like to see the stats for incoming and outgoing users who have validated their account--these are people who are serious and who you can be fairly sure are real--though I did see a couple of guys with more than one introduceyourself post yesterday (some will try to game this as everyone knows this is where good money is being focused, and with good reason).


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July 25, 2016, 05:42:36 AM
 #116

Are they seriously abandoning their account to make comments on reddit that will never earn them a cent or collect curator rewards on another site that doesn't yet exist? Steemit is the only game in town (that pays in something other than karma hugs) and likely the payout today will increase over time if the site is successful--so either these people are irrational or full of shit.

If they are the 1.3 billion from Facebook, they aren't likely using Reddit either with its 0.16 billion usership. There are so many different things that users can do on Facebook. Steem is so one-feature-wonder.

And my point is the monetary payouts are not important to most users (because they aren't significant).

The concept of Steem has some upside, but fully leveraging the conceptual model is going to require a lot more development work.
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July 25, 2016, 05:48:35 AM
 #117

Are they seriously abandoning their account to make comments on reddit that will never earn them a cent or collect curator rewards on another site that doesn't yet exist? Steemit is the only game in town (that pays in something other than karma hugs) and likely the payout today will increase over time if the site is successful--so either these people are irrational or full of shit.

If they are the 1.3 billion from Facebook, they aren't likely using Reddit either with its 0.16 billion usership. There are so many different things that users can do on Facebook. Steem is so one-feature-wonder.

And my point is the payouts are not important to most users.

That's even worse as facebook is a data whore, which pickpockets marketing data on your way out the door,

"Excuse me Madam, did you see my wallet?"

Pulling up her stockings, "We, no! But might you be interested in a fine gold watch?"

"No, thanks -- If you'll just kindly give back my ID, I'll go."

As far as payouts go, you can't have it both ways. Users can't simultaneously hate the payout scheme and not care about it. They can act like both, but the reality is a degree of one or the other.

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July 25, 2016, 06:04:31 AM
 #118

I had joined steemit and made a couple of articles and am wondering is it still viable to post there and make a little extra income or is the system rigged in favor of certain writers? I see mixed feedback primarily negative now but want more info from those successfully using it.


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iamnotback
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July 25, 2016, 06:07:43 AM
Last edit: July 25, 2016, 09:00:36 AM by iamnotback
 #119


That article is very myopic:

Quote
Over the past two years, Qntra authors have gotten paid for their work directly by MPEx investors as advertised. At a later time, if someone wants to buy the whole of Qntra, shareholders will get paid for their shares.

...

In essence Steemit users are getting paid by Bitcoin investors via exchanges, similar to Qntra. However these Bitcoin investors interested in STEEM are few and as such there is less than a total of 1,000 BTC worth of bids for STEEM across all exchanges.

If someone holds a large stash of bitcoins, what would compel him to ever buy STEEM? (outside of speculating of course) In the case of Qntra, even before revenue is realized, the company may sell for more than investors paid per share. A STEEM investor never has ownership over any of the content published on Steemit. For them buying STEEM is essentially a gracious donation to content creators.

What he means is that the content is public on the blockchain and is not owned by anyone. Anyone can use that data from the blockchain.

But he fails to understand that the value of a social network is not its content, but its users ongoing use of the site due to their investment in the communities of the site.

Quote
The only hope for Steemit is incentivizing professional content creators to contribute. Professional filmmakers, television producers, comic authors, etc., would be the only content rational Bitcoin investors would be willing to purchase. Even in this case due to the mode of monetization, awarding content payouts will always be optional.

A professional television producer creates a pilot with a $10,000 budget. After a great deal of market testing, the producer realizes the show has great potential with his target audiences. One option for distribution is he can release it for free on a service like YouTube and embed it in a Steemit blog post. Here he is at the whim of generosity of STEEM users. It’s risky distributing in this channel as STEEM users are clearly irrational and won’t pay a realistic price for consuming the media. Another option is the producer to sell it to Netflix as an exclusive for $1mn up front and a possible royalty deal after a certain number of episodes aired. The latter option for the producer will likely prevent him from posting the content on Steemit.

It seems it would be very difficult for Steemit to incentivize professional content creators directly.

He fails to understand that indie content can be a lot more interesting and precisely targeted to smaller audiences (coteries) than Hollywood content.

And indie artists do give away free promos on their work in order to upsell other work or paraphernalia.

Indie artists often jam with their fans so they are in tune with what to create. Also they iterate in smaller morsels, and get feedback along the way.

Putting some content on the blockchain, doesn't mean creators have to put all their content on the blockchain.
albert11
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July 25, 2016, 06:22:58 AM
 #120

The problem with steemit is that posts are way too long, most people nowadays don't bother reading long stories they want to consume the most content in the least amount of time.

Btw I made 5k by posting fake intro post, I created 4 bogus profil, took photos of travel and stuff from facebook wrote a few things and made over 1000$ per post on average, some users asked me some proof which i ignored. Only thing i had to do was to order 5 sim ( in UK u can get as much as you want) so yeah pretty good site

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