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flipme
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August 26, 2016, 11:13:38 AM |
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Another distant possibility I can't rule out somehow is, that the Larimers are indeed geniuses, and everything is going extremely well, as planned.
The condition under which this came true would be met, if Steem was a project ordered by a social media major, with everything thats happening now just as a test run, and everything published now being viewed as demo content for making a good showcase.
If that cat would jump out of the box it would indeed make a nice leap.
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iamnotback
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August 26, 2016, 12:06:59 PM |
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Another distant possibility I can't rule out somehow is, that the Larimers are indeed geniuses, and everything is going extremely well, as planned.
The condition under which this came true would be met, if Steem was a project ordered by a social media major, with everything thats happening now just as a test run, and everything published now being viewed as demo content for making a good showcase.
If that cat would jump out of the box it would indeed make a nice leap.
Very distant. I haven't entirely ruled it out, but afaics (and the I believe the flatlining of serious weekly users is supporting this as I anticipated upthread) the design of the token can't onboard the masses nor the speculators to keep it funded while it does, so what is the attraction for the majors? They only jump on something that is growing fast and already in the millions of users, e.g. the recent flurry of videochat social apps. The open source aspect could have lead to many different ecosystem apps built on top of the blockchain, but I think the structure of the underlying token makes this unlikely to break out of the quagmire I outlined above. the problem is not the value of steem. the problem is how it works. you can't earn something without the "help" of the "whales". or you have to buy a lot of steel from the "whales" to be able to vote yourself.
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Denker
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Activity: 1442
Merit: 1016
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August 26, 2016, 12:22:53 PM |
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With Steem tokens keep falling some people who have planned to invest in it for the long term are now stuck and getting desperate. I saw a video of Tai Zen trying to convince people and himself that the falling price is ok. Here is the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgp0_sS8rLwFor me the price will go up in time but the question I have is when will the price stop falling and how long do we have to wait for the price to go back up? It is not worth the agonizing wait if you ask me. The Larimers and their associates are cashing out. There is a reason for this. Come one we all knew that this was going to happen. Every person who believed that this will be a great project and worth quit some bucks in the future most have lost his mind. Look at the chart!It's dropping like a hot potatoe!And it will keep on dropping.Ok some small break and pump within that but then the sale out will continue while the dumb sheep who invested will stuck. |
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flipme
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August 26, 2016, 12:42:47 PM |
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On the other hand, if everybody says its broken and there are threads on BCT how crooked and what a scam everything is, its usually a good time to buy some.
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flipme
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August 26, 2016, 01:03:20 PM |
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Another distant possibility I can't rule out somehow is, that the Larimers are indeed geniuses, and everything is going extremely well, as planned.
The condition under which this came true would be met, if Steem was a project ordered by a social media major, with everything thats happening now just as a test run, and everything published now being viewed as demo content for making a good showcase.
If that cat would jump out of the box it would indeed make a nice leap.
Very distant. I haven't entirely ruled it out, but afaics (and the I believe the flatlining of serious weekly users is supporting this as I anticipated upthread) the design of the token can't onboard the masses nor the speculators to keep it funded while it does, so what is the attraction for the majors? They only jump on something that is growing fast and already in the millions of users, e.g. the recent flurry of videochat social apps. The open source aspect could have lead to many different ecosystem apps built on top of the blockchain, but I think the structure of the underlying token makes this unlikely to break out of the quagmire I outlined above. the problem is not the value of steem. the problem is how it works. you can't earn something without the "help" of the "whales". or you have to buy a lot of steel from the "whales" to be able to vote yourself.
It would be perfect for vertical markets, framed by Facebook, with a great deal of authors staffed up and a 3 tier payment system in place. Its written in React. |
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flipme
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August 26, 2016, 02:26:53 PM
Last edit: August 26, 2016, 03:06:10 PM by flipme |
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Agreed, but I see the level at parity with SBD, like now. We'll see whether the promise to keep the peg to the US$ holds. Larimer is hell bent to keep it there, he said. So now people may exchange their Steem for SBD, as a hedge against the falling price, which would put a lot of pressure on SBD. Then again, if some announcement was made that could make it snap up very nicely. I just bought some. It would actually be a perfect moment in time for a nice announcement, Friday afternoon, STEEM-SBD at parity. |
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AlexGR
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Merit: 1049
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August 26, 2016, 03:38:00 PM
Last edit: August 26, 2016, 03:49:16 PM by AlexGR |
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With Steem tokens keep falling some people who have planned to invest in it for the long term are now stuck and getting desperate. I saw a video of Tai Zen trying to convince people and himself that the falling price is ok. Here is the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgp0_sS8rLwFor me the price will go up in time but the question I have is when will the price stop falling and how long do we have to wait for the price to go back up? It is not worth the agonizing wait if you ask me. The Larimers and their associates are cashing out. There is a reason for this. Come one we all knew that this was going to happen. Every person who believed that this will be a great project and worth quit some bucks in the future most have lost his mind. Look at the chart!It's dropping like a hot potatoe!And it will keep on dropping.Ok some small break and pump within that but then the sale out will continue while the dumb sheep who invested will stuck. Why are you assuming that every investor must have bought AFTER the pump? They could have bought at 0.0003 or 0.001 for all we know - because there definitely were some spikes between 0.0003 and 0.001. Some people were buying back then and they aren't in the red. And they won't be in the red even if it drops below 0.001 - because their SP quantity has gone upwards a lot. |
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iamnotback
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August 26, 2016, 03:51:50 PM |
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I had read that in July. I agree with him about most of that, except that in my analysis Steemit doesn't have the right structure to scale virally and to encourage those ecosystem apps. The design of Steemit screams short-term pump and cash out. Of course my analysis could be wrong. And I must admit I am not deep into the design specifics of the Graphene and Steem blockchain. I'd like to reveal my design so you could understand what I mean in comparison, but I am inhibited by trying to at least get to a working mockup so I can try to raise some funds and accelerate from there. Note I am speaking with other developers as well. One problem though is that partnerships with unknown people are fraught with potential failure for various reasons. As a professional trader for 20 years on NYSE, etc...
I know for a FACT that they fucked up the Steemit internal market as bad as any random pinhead could (down to < $10,000 24 hour volume)...
So in spite of 2 years of working with Bitshares Dan has no clue how to develop liquidity (or it was a straight-up scam to drain rewards)...
This single data point does not inspire confidence that Steemit knows much more than is already evident.
May be they have smart venture capital partners...
But STEEM is going below 0.001... maybe starting to buy there is not crazy if you want to ride the Larimer train.
Agreed, but I see the level at parity with SBD, like now. We'll see whether the promise to keep the peg to the US$ holds. Larimer is hell bent to keep it there, he said. So now people may exchange their Steem for SBD, as a hedge against the falling price, which would put a lot of pressure on SBD. Then again, if some announcement was made that could make it snap up very nicely. I just bought some. It would actually be a perfect moment in time for a nice announcement, Friday afternoon, STEEM-SBD at parity. I see the SBD as entirely undesired in my design. And I've never thought that pegged assets could be stable or even desirable. Who wants the pegged shit, when they can trade the real thing (liquidity, frictional losses, etc). The entire point is to build the token as a unit-of-account through a widespread unit-of-exchange in a virtual commerce market that other social networks currently can't do. You've got to actually build a content ecosystem that can drive that virtual commerce market. A marketplace (Dan's plan) is nonsense. We don't need another ebay.What most everyone doesn't understand is that you have to tap something that people really need. |
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iamnotback
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August 26, 2016, 04:24:32 PM |
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Another distant possibility I can't rule out somehow is, that the Larimers are indeed geniuses, and everything is going extremely well, as planned.
The condition under which this came true would be met, if Steem was a project ordered by a social media major, with everything thats happening now just as a test run, and everything published now being viewed as demo content for making a good showcase.
If that cat would jump out of the box it would indeed make a nice leap.
Very distant. I haven't entirely ruled it out, but afaics (and the I believe the flatlining of serious weekly users is supporting this as I anticipated upthread) the design of the token can't onboard the masses nor the speculators to keep it funded while it does, so what is the attraction for the majors? They only jump on something that is growing fast and already in the millions of users, e.g. the recent flurry of videochat social apps. The open source aspect could have lead to many different ecosystem apps built on top of the blockchain, but I think the structure of the underlying token makes this unlikely to break out of the quagmire I outlined above. the problem is not the value of steem. the problem is how it works. you can't earn something without the "help" of the "whales". or you have to buy a lot of steel from the "whales" to be able to vote yourself.
It would be perfect for vertical markets, framed by Facebook, with a great deal of authors staffed up and a 3 tier payment system in place. Its written in React. Why does Facebook need a blockchain for this? To be able to pay authors by taking the money from investors? What is the investment incentive? Again I don't think any large market has been demontrated, nor any sustainable funding model. Am I missing something you see? Yeah React is an interesting framework, but afaics that is a much lower priority in terms of what would interest a major social network in an acquisition. |
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FandangledGizmo
Legendary
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Activity: 1138
Merit: 1001
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August 26, 2016, 04:33:53 PM |
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Another distant possibility I can't rule out somehow is, that the Larimers are indeed geniuses, and everything is going extremely well, as planned.
The condition under which this came true would be met, if Steem was a project ordered by a social media major, with everything thats happening now just as a test run, and everything published now being viewed as demo content for making a good showcase.
If that cat would jump out of the box it would indeed make a nice leap.
As a developer Dan is definitely a genius, top 3 with Vitalik and Satoshi. However this is also his downfall as he thinks his ideas on everything else are at that level like an Elon Musk/Steve Jobs and that he is probably worth >25% equity of whatever project he is the lead developer of. Unfortunately his business, entrepreneurial and 'practical' economic skills are very poor imo. He would be a God with 5-10% equity on a project he committed too for 5 years+ while taking his development direction from a successful blockchain entrepreneur or even from the shareholders themselves. In the case of Steem though he did seem to know it was designed for a major artificial CMC pump... As the founder of Steem said... Given that the economics don't stack up at all - It is essentially a pyramid scheme. (There's no revenue, just diluting speculators at a massive daily rate to fund generous user rewards and no realistic plan for future monetization of those users to cover those expenses and turn a profit.) So I do wonder if they knew it was designed to pump then fail but generate a lot of money for them in the interim, (given they mined 80% of initial supply.) Even now there's <0.3% of supply on the market, far less than any major altcoin and yet that amount still manages to dwarf the miniscule Steem buy support. |
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iamnotback
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August 26, 2016, 04:36:36 PM |
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Again I think the this circle-jerk of Western socialism decadence is in grip of Steem(it)'s culture (read the comments of others surrounding mine): Speaking is fine. Taking $2073 from the collective money pool to pay for it is dubious. Of course we in the West think we can afford all of this luxury of waste. It is not that I can't reverberate with feminine energy and understanding, but rather that the universe made me a man to be able to be maximally productive and let the females focus on the nurturing. That is not to say I am never feeding my feminine side (I was feeding far too much throughout my life) The future is not the Western decline. The future and billions of people in the developing countries. And I hope this Steemit meme doesn't represent all the mainstream Westerners. Have we really sunken this far in the West? (I haven't been to the USA since 2006) |
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FandangledGizmo
Legendary
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Activity: 1138
Merit: 1001
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August 26, 2016, 04:37:30 PM |
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Another distant possibility I can't rule out somehow is, that the Larimers are indeed geniuses, and everything is going extremely well, as planned.
The condition under which this came true would be met, if Steem was a project ordered by a social media major, with everything thats happening now just as a test run, and everything published now being viewed as demo content for making a good showcase.
If that cat would jump out of the box it would indeed make a nice leap.
Very distant. I haven't entirely ruled it out, but afaics (and the I believe the flatlining of serious weekly users is supporting this as I anticipated upthread) the design of the token can't onboard the masses nor the speculators to keep it funded while it does, so what is the attraction for the majors? They only jump on something that is growing fast and already in the millions of users, e.g. the recent flurry of videochat social apps. The open source aspect could have lead to many different ecosystem apps built on top of the blockchain, but I think the structure of the underlying token makes this unlikely to break out of the quagmire I outlined above. the problem is not the value of steem. the problem is how it works. you can't earn something without the "help" of the "whales". or you have to buy a lot of steel from the "whales" to be able to vote yourself.
It would be perfect for vertical markets, framed by Facebook, with a great deal of authors staffed up and a 3 tier payment system in place. Its written in React. Why does Facebook need a blockchain for this? To be able to pay authors by taking the money from investors? What is the investment incentive? Again I don't think any large market has been demontrated, nor any sustainable funding model. Am I missing something you see? Yeah React is an interesting framework, but afaics that is a much lower priority in terms of what would interest a major social network in an acquisition. Well the Synereo model has advantages. You can direct revenue from advertisers to users and if you put it on a truly decentralized blockchain you can also prevent censorship as well as have verifiable privacy related features. |
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iamnotback
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August 26, 2016, 04:40:49 PM
Last edit: August 26, 2016, 04:52:16 PM by iamnotback |
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You can direct revenue from advertisers to users and if you put it on a truly decentralized blockchain you can also prevent censorship as well as have verifiable privacy related features.
Advertising revenue is not sufficient to pay the users. We've documented this so many times, it is really ridiculous that I've had to repeat this dozens of times. I was the first person to point this out several months ago. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jan/28/how-much-are-you-worth-to-facebookYou could pay a few curators or authors from ad revenue, if the other users don't expect to get paid. But then what is your onboarding paradigm to bring in the masses? I am waiting to see how Synereo actually works. For me at least, the process calculus mumbo-jumbo technobabble is an enigma at this point. But I don't understand in any case how they expect to be able economically justify this with an advertising revenue model. Perhaps they feel they can much better target ad spending relevance, and thus achieve much higher revenue per user? |
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iamnotback
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August 26, 2016, 04:47:53 PM |
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As a developer Dan is definitely a genius, top 3 with Vitalik and Satoshi.
Disagree. He is smart, as I am smart, but neither of us are geniuses. Dan appears to me be naive. He is smart though and apparently a talented developer and technology savant. Note there is a lead programmer on Steemit who is not Dan and appears to do much of the actual coding. However this is also his downfall as he thinks his ideas on everything else are at that level like an Elon Musk/Steve Jobs and that he is probably worth >25% equity of whatever project he is the lead developer of. Unfortunately his business, entrepreneurial and 'practical' economic skills are very poor imo. He would be a God with 5-10% equity on a project he committed too for 5 years+ while taking his development direction from a successful blockchain entrepreneur or even from the shareholders themselves.
Agreed. Actually 5 - 10% is exactly the level I am thinking to take of my project, with a similar 5 year commitment to the long-term. Even now there's <0.3% of supply on the market, far less than any major altcoin and yet that amount still manages to dwarf the miniscule Steem buy support.
Because there is a disincentive to even speculate on it, as I explained earlier today upthread. |
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FandangledGizmo
Legendary
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August 26, 2016, 04:55:36 PM |
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You can direct revenue from advertisers to users and if you put it on a truly decentralized blockchain you can also prevent censorship as well as have verifiable privacy related features.
Advertising revenue is not sufficient to pay the users. We've documented this so many times, it is really ridiculous that I've had to repeat this dozens of times. I was the first person to point this out several months ago. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jan/28/how-much-are-you-worth-to-facebookYou could pay a few curators or authors from ad revenue, if the other users don't expect to get paid. But then what is your onboarding paradigm to bring in the masses? Yes, very interesting, I've looked at various user values before too. It would seem a US user is worth about $50 a year. I guess you could probably up that to $100-200 a year, depending on your level of activity and if you opted in for and actively consumed some targeted advertising. In addition to increased privacy, low/no censorship that might be enough to attract a reasonable amount of Facebook users who currently earning zero. However I agree there is no model where paying for the type of content you see on Reddit and now Steem makes sense because we are talking minuscule amounts when you divide their revenue among the total content even when weighted to the most popular. (Reddit is actually still in the red I think, makes less revenue than it costs to cover running expenses, never mind paying users.) |
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FandangledGizmo
Legendary
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August 26, 2016, 05:07:45 PM |
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As a developer Dan is definitely a genius, top 3 with Vitalik and Satoshi.
Disagree. He is smart, as I am smart, but neither of us are geniuses. Dan appears to me be naive. He is smart though and apparently a talented developer and technology savant. Note there is a lead programmer on Steemit who is not Dan and appears to do much of the actual coding. Perhaps but only once you actualise your ability on a large blockchain project can you be compared. Dan was also the founder and lead developer on BTS. https://bitshares.org/ https://bitshares.openledger.info/#/He/it was a pioneer in many areas and I still think even now it's miles ahead of a lot of competitors. Steem was also created and launched fairly quickly where other projects take much longer and cost much more. So I think he is gifted/exceptional in that area. |
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iamnotback
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August 26, 2016, 06:12:41 PM
Last edit: August 26, 2016, 06:26:16 PM by iamnotback |
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As a developer Dan is definitely a genius, top 3 with Vitalik and Satoshi.
Disagree. He is smart, as I am smart, but neither of us are geniuses. Dan appears to me be naive. He is smart though and apparently a talented developer and technology savant. Note there is a lead programmer on Steemit who is not Dan and appears to do much of the actual coding. Perhaps but only once you actualise your ability on a large blockchain project can you be compared. Dan was also the founder and lead developer on BTS. https://bitshares.org/ https://bitshares.openledger.info/#/He/it was a pioneer in many areas and I still think even now it's miles ahead of a lot of competitors. Steem was also created and launched fairly quickly where other projects take much longer and cost much more. So I think he is gifted/exceptional in that area. I agree. Accomplished and gifted I think are more accurate than genius. Satoshi's invention was genius. Afaics Dan hasn't come close yet. Afaics, nothing Dan has produced is actually viable, although we have to acknowledge that Steem(it) opens a lot of people's eyes and it represents an important experiment to learn from (if not somehow morphing to widespread viability). I can't say with any certainty that there is a huge gap between massive accomplishment and widespread viability, but I tend to think so. But I also recognize that Dan (and his lead programmer!) are accomplished and talented enough. So they may have or will unlock viability at some point. They have an established base of technology to work from, which took a couple of years to develop. Actually it is quite exciting. Going to be interesting to see how this all plays out, including what others are working on. I wish I was Dan's age and had his health at this juncture. What an exciting time to have complete facilities and abilities. It brings back fond memories of my late 20s and early 30s (and an intense desire to get back there!), in which I was churning out production at a similar clip. |
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iamnotback
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August 26, 2016, 06:47:57 PM
Last edit: August 26, 2016, 07:17:17 PM by iamnotback |
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Please check my logic. Synereo has a chicken-or-egg dilemma. They need massive adoption to drive demand for the AMP token by advertisers, yet what is their plan to onboard adoption? The masses don't care enough about ideological decentralization to adopt some quirky new social network. Steemit showed how to onboard some usership, but it also appears to be limited by the fact that blogging isn't that popular and isn't something very many people can do well. Also there is no way to distribute the rewards such that all users would be incentivized to join for financial gains, even a uniform distribution would be a paltry amount per user. (also add that it is stuck in a circle-jerk where we can't maximally earn unless we cowtail to the preferred memes there) Also both were allegedly "pre"-mined ~90%. Steemit claims it will distribute about 40% of that to signups, but signups appear to be mostly Sybil attacks, not real users. And no where near the millions of signups needed to distribute that 40%. I will propose a solution to this posited dilemma. However please feel free to point out if I have constructed a strawman. |
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flipme
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August 26, 2016, 11:44:50 PM |
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I had read that in July. I agree with him about most of that, except that in my analysis Steemit doesn't have the right structure to scale virally and to encourage those ecosystem apps. The design of Steemit screams short-term pump and cash out. Of course my analysis could be wrong. And I must admit I am not deep into the design specifics of the Graphene and Steem blockchain. I'd like to reveal my design so you could understand what I mean in comparison, but I am inhibited by trying to at least get to a working mockup so I can try to raise some funds and accelerate from there. Note I am speaking with other developers as well. One problem though is that partnerships with unknown people are fraught with potential failure for various reasons. As a professional trader for 20 years on NYSE, etc...
I know for a FACT that they fucked up the Steemit internal market as bad as any random pinhead could (down to < $10,000 24 hour volume)...
So in spite of 2 years of working with Bitshares Dan has no clue how to develop liquidity (or it was a straight-up scam to drain rewards)...
This single data point does not inspire confidence that Steemit knows much more than is already evident.
May be they have smart venture capital partners...
But STEEM is going below 0.001... maybe starting to buy there is not crazy if you want to ride the Larimer train.
Agreed, but I see the level at parity with SBD, like now. We'll see whether the promise to keep the peg to the US$ holds. Larimer is hell bent to keep it there, he said. So now people may exchange their Steem for SBD, as a hedge against the falling price, which would put a lot of pressure on SBD. Then again, if some announcement was made that could make it snap up very nicely. I just bought some. It would actually be a perfect moment in time for a nice announcement, Friday afternoon, STEEM-SBD at parity. I see the SBD as entirely undesired in my design. And I've never thought that pegged assets could be stable or even desirable. Who wants the pegged shit, when they can trade the real thing (liquidity, frictional losses, etc). The entire point is to build the token as a unit-of-account through a widespread unit-of-exchange in a virtual commerce market that other social networks currently can't do. You've got to actually build a content ecosystem that can drive that virtual commerce market. A marketplace (Dan's plan) is nonsense. We don't need another ebay.What most everyone doesn't understand is that you have to tap something that people really need.The 3 tier system is great, SBD pegged to a Dollar is the perfect token for the merchant side, as it won't float. The rest of the cake could be easily cut to be shared between marketeers and buyers. |
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