Bitcoin bubble crash @ 100$ Summer of 2013?

[xavier]

It will only crash if serious bad news comes in. Otherwise, there is no other way but up with perhaps temporary hickups or horizontal movements allowing the market to catch up with the breakneck speed.

It would take REALLY bad news. The recent problems with the fork chain didn't do it.
A gov ban on bitcoin would have some effect, but the recently issued finCEN ruling actually shows that an US ban is not imminent, providing further support for BTC going mainstream.

I really don't see any good reason it should stop at $100 or thereafter. Maybe a little delay, as we saw at $50. Then up, next stops $200 or $250 (3 weeks), then $500 (somtime in may), then $1000 (during the summer).

YES for this analysis

This doesn't make sense. Past history is not an indication of future performance. So much variables changed since June 2011. You could take all your numbers and put a random one and it would be as much precise. Try to understand why the price crashed in 2011 and what changed since then. I don't say it won't crash but history is not likely to repeat itself.

YES

Isnt it funny how all the logical arguments point to the price going up further.

All the illogical ones, about a fear of a bubble, because the rise has been too fast, because of a certain chart pattern, etc etc , point to the price falling.

As someone who aims to trade on reason and logical grounds rather than emotional, I know which side of the order book Im on right now.

[gollum]

I’m curious what people are thinking that are buying into an exponential price curve?
Are they expecting bitcoin to continue go up much more than other investments, or are they afraid their fiat currency (euro) may lose in value significantly?

When I’m trading stocks I prefer to buy into dips rather than just buying when something is going up. I usually do the opposite: short stocks or indices that are going up too much, too fast and take profit on the dip.

I can’t see why bitcoin would be different, we should have a huge dip when this rally loses momentum. For long term investments 20-30$ is a good level to buy huge amounts of bitcoin.
For the long term I think 1000$-5000$ may be a good target if bitcoin becomes a PayPal killer

[nobbynobbynoob]

I can’t see why bitcoin would be different, we should have a huge dip when if this rally loses momentum. For long term investments 20-30$ is a good level to buy huge amounts of bitcoin.

FTFY

For the long term I think 1000$-5000$ may be a good target if bitcoin becomes a PayPal killer

And at least ~100x that amount if bitcoin ever becomes a major player as a reserve currency, or is used by major corporations to store and transfer real value.

1 BTC could trade at 1000 USD before the end of this year, given the recent activity witnessed. Of course, in truth, I don't think it's likely to rise that quickly, and it could be a major bubble if it does, but I wouldn't rule it out now either (I would've ridiculed the notion only three months ago!).

[cbeast]

Bitcoin is the new Berkshire-Hathaway common stock

[gollum]

100 was reached which triggered lot of dumb money to buy at levels between 100-150 which now could have been the top for this time. This time the bitcoin market has a broader user base, more hashrate (more secure) and got more merchants offering services for coins. So lets say 70-80% could be enough in this crash.

$150 * (100%-80%) = $30
$150 * (100%-70%) = $45

[gollum]

Seems like BitCoin and LiteCoin is crashing now - BTC down from 147 to 100 (32%) and LTC from 6$ to 3,7$ (38%).
If the downtrend continues for several days/weeks we will probably end up with BTC down 80% and LTC down 90% from ATH.

[coffeeee]

Seems like BitCoin and LiteCoin is crashing now - BTC down from 147 to 100 (32%) and LTC from 6$ to 3,7$ (38%).
If the downtrend continues for several days/weeks we will probably end up with BTC down 80% and LTC down 90% from ATH.

Two hours later and it has rebounded to 120.

I would wager that these quick price dips are people sitting on piles of coins who think to themselves, "Welp, if I cash out now, I can have 500k. Good enough for me."

[wopwop]

Seems like BitCoin and LiteCoin is crashing now - BTC down from 147 to 100 (32%) and LTC from 6$ to 3,7$ (38%).
If the downtrend continues for several days/weeks we will probably end up with BTC down 80% and LTC down 90% from ATH.

Two hours later and it has rebounded to 120.

I would wager that these quick price dips are people sitting on piles of coins who think to themselves, "Welp, if I cash out now, I can have 500k. Good enough for me."

yep we are already returning to the normal

probably 300$ by april 15

[gollum]

Seems like BitCoin and LiteCoin is crashing now - BTC down from 147 to 100 (32%) and LTC from 6$ to 3,7$ (38%).
If the downtrend continues for several days/weeks we will probably end up with BTC down 80% and LTC down 90% from ATH.

Two hours later and it has rebounded to 120.

I would wager that these quick price dips are people sitting on piles of coins who think to themselves, "Welp, if I cash out now, I can have 500k. Good enough for me."

yep we are already returning to the normal

probably 300$ by april 15

Yes the parabolic curve can last forever, and ever and ever... or not. I am expecting a huge drop to 30$ so all noobs are shaken out.

Ironically Zero Hedge mentioned BitCoins parabolic curve just hours before the drop from 147$ to 100$


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-03/bitcoins-go-parabolic

[humanitee]

words

Log chart.
Buy.

[WishIStartedSooner]

I’m curious what people are thinking that are buying into an exponential price curve?
Are they expecting bitcoin to continue go up much more than other investments, or are they afraid their fiat currency (euro) may lose in value significantly?

When I’m trading stocks I prefer to buy into dips rather than just buying when something is going up. I usually do the opposite: short stocks or indices that are going up too much, too fast and take profit on the dip.

I can’t see why bitcoin would be different, we should have a huge dip when this rally loses momentum. For long term investments 20-30$ is a good level to buy huge amounts of bitcoin.
For the long term I think 1000$-5000$ may be a good target if bitcoin becomes a PayPal killer

With every bubble more people learn about it. The price explodes when the right person gets behind it. I've been buying because the possibility of the bubble bursting isn't 100% It may not be a bubble. But in the grand scheme if this thing is going to succeed... well it's very young, and I want to have some skin in the game, is that the expression?

[chriswen]

Currently on the hourly trend we are seeing a double top forming.  This is quite significant.

[gollum]

This market is crazy, we got almost 200$ today and BTC now is correcting to 170$.

Hopefully we will get a bigger correction (crash) that will scare all the greedy noobs that dont know anything about bitcoin but just want to get rich quick.
For the best of the bitcoin community I am hoping for a crash towards 20$ so the noobs dissapeear and the geeks can build a stronger foundation before bitcoin becomers main stream. Right now I dont think the technology or the eco system is ready for a massive main stream users.

Biggest issues of bitcoin right now:

-Not user friendly Not easy to use by your mom, dad and grandma... Bitcoin is to geeky to have a market cap of billions $ right now

-Monopoly of one exchange - It is a huge problem that one exchange (MtGox) got most of the bitcoin market.

-Security risks for noobs - Instawallet was the latest big hack lately

-Lack of Scalability MtGox and other popular sites are not built to be used by millions of users

-Lack of anonimity - (Governments can easily track individual accounts, the smallest problem is tax problems, biggest problem is people who think they are anonymous when they buy stuff from Silk Road...

-Risk of 51% takeover - Bitcoin can esaily be controlled by governments, corporations or maffia with an investment of a few million dollars in ASIC-computers. They can use their 51%+ hashing rate to either screw the network or block some accounts that they dont like. Anyone investing 20 million dollars in ASIC right now will have 90% of the network.

[smoothie]

OP did you buy back in? lol

[zarl]

-Lack of anonimity - (Governments can easily track individual accounts, the smallest problem is tax problems, biggest problem is people who think they are anonymous when they buy stuff from Silk Road...

What if client is propper connected through Tor ? I go thinking this is 100% anonimity
And if paranoid, can bring laptop to a hotel or some place, in another city. to make the transfer

[zarl]

-Risk of 51% takeover - Bitcoin can esaily be controlled by governments, corporations or maffia with an investment of a few million dollars in ASIC-computers. They can use their 51%+ hashing rate to either screw the network or block some accounts that they dont like. Anyone investing 20 million dollars in ASIC right now will have 90% of the network.

Is this really true ? sounds like something to maybe fear ?

[zarl]

-Risk of 51% takeover - Bitcoin can esaily be controlled by governments, corporations or maffia with an investment of a few million dollars in ASIC-computers. They can use their 51%+ hashing rate to either screw the network or block some accounts that they dont like. Anyone investing 20 million dollars in ASIC right now will have 90% of the network.

Is this really true ? sounds like something to maybe fear ?

It is the only thing we should fear. Hopefully ASIC will become mainstream before "they" actually think about it.

But Governments are not that stupid.
They maybe even read this post ;(

[gollum]

According to CNN one US soldier stationed in Afghanistan costs around 1 million dollars per year to "fight terrorism". So the cost to fight or control BitCoin will be the equivalent of 20 US Soldiers per year, thats nothing for NSA with billions in budget. The FBI and IRS will also love bitcoin since its tracable, they will easily track down and screw people for small crimes.

Our beloved bitcoin might become the fiat-beast we wanted to abandon.

[humanitee]

According to CNN one US soldier stationed in Afghanistan costs around 1 million dollars per year to "fight terrorism". So the cost to fight or control BitCoin will be the equivalent of 20 US Soldiers per year, thats nothing for NSA with billions in budget. The FBI and IRS will also love bitcoin since its tracable, they will easily track down and screw people for small crimes.

Our beloved bitcoin might become the fiat-beast we wanted to abandon.

LOL
wat

[gollum]

According to CNN one US soldier stationed in Afghanistan costs around 1 million dollars per year to "fight terrorism". So the cost to fight or control BitCoin will be the equivalent of 20 US Soldiers per year, thats nothing for NSA with billions in budget. The FBI and IRS will also love bitcoin since its tracable, they will easily track down and screw people for small crimes.

Our beloved bitcoin might become the fiat-beast we wanted to abandon.

LOL
wat

Yes The Government can have 90% control over bitcoin network with the budget of 20 soldiers = 20 million dollars

20 US Soldiers = 20 million dollars =>
$20 000 000 / $1000 = 20 000 ASICs
20 000 * 60 Ghash = 1 200 000 Ghash compared to 60 000 GHash today