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Author Topic: Pullback from $75?  (Read 2825 times)
Tirapon
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March 21, 2013, 11:11:18 PM
 #1

I think this rally has been getting ahead of itself - thoughts?
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sgbett
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March 21, 2013, 11:13:41 PM
 #2

I thought that very same thing...


...at $35

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March 21, 2013, 11:14:01 PM
 #3

I agree... this is just mental.

But, in the long term, I don't see why the price can't go $1000 per coin.

I love bitcoins - everything about them.
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March 21, 2013, 11:16:15 PM
 #4

Right now a big spender is trying damn hard to push it down. Constantly laying on the super walls and the sizable asks right at the bid price.
Tirapon
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March 21, 2013, 11:44:01 PM
 #5

Even on a logarithmic scale it's spiked above the trend. I would feel a lot more comfortable if it dipped again for now, or at least slowed to steady exponential growth.
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March 21, 2013, 11:45:59 PM
 #6

Even on a logarithmic scale it's spiked above the trend. I would feel a lot more comfortable if it dipped again for now, or at least slowed to steady exponential growth.
I'd be happy with that also. I would enjoy sustained growth.
mokahless
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March 22, 2013, 12:21:53 AM
 #7

I thought that very same thing...


...at $35

+1

Then again at $45

And again at $68


flibbr
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March 22, 2013, 12:28:06 AM
 #8

I thought that very same thing...


...at $35

+1

Then again at $45

And again at $68



Yeap. Same.

But persistent growth will go on.. as long as they keep printing the fiat money to buy the coins with.

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March 22, 2013, 12:38:05 AM
 #9

Even on a logarithmic scale it's spiked above the trend. I would feel a lot more comfortable if it dipped again for now, or at least slowed to steady exponential growth.

Haha, we are calling exponential growth 'steady' now  Grin
Tirapon
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March 22, 2013, 12:46:25 AM
 #10

Even on a logarithmic scale it's spiked above the trend. I would feel a lot more comfortable if it dipped again for now, or at least slowed to steady exponential growth.

Haha, we are calling exponential growth 'steady' now  Grin

Yeah, re-reading it I guess that doesn't really make sense but I think you get what I meant.
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March 22, 2013, 12:50:04 AM
 #11

i think everyone knows it has to cool off, i'd be delighted if it stays above $60 for a week or more, get our breath back then march on up to 100

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March 22, 2013, 12:51:52 AM
 #12

I think we could dip as low as 66-ish, but will take at least one more crack at 74-ish before a more major pullback. Or we could just bust upwards and keep going. But I'm mostly pulling all this out of my butt.  Cheesy
Tirapon
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March 22, 2013, 12:55:00 AM
 #13

I think we could dip as low as 66-ish, but will take at least one more crack at 74-ish before a more major pullback. Or we could just bust upwards and keep going. But I'm mostly pulling all this out of my butt.  Cheesy

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March 22, 2013, 12:58:31 AM
 #14

I thought that very same thing...


...at $35

+1

Then again at $45

And again at $68



Yeap. Same.

But persistent growth will go on.. as long as they keep printing the fiat money to buy the coins with.


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March 22, 2013, 01:02:29 AM
 #15

Even on a logarithmic scale it's spiked above the trend. I would feel a lot more comfortable if it dipped again for now, or at least slowed to steady exponential growth.

Haha, we are calling exponential growth 'steady' now  Grin

Yeah, re-reading it I guess that doesn't really make sense but I think you get what I meant.

It makes perfect sense to say something like this now.  I just found it funny because it clearly shows the situation we are in.
Tirapon
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March 22, 2013, 01:07:26 AM
 #16

'Steady exponential growth' should normally be something of an oxymoron...

...but Bitcoin Grin
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March 22, 2013, 01:13:53 AM
 #17

'Steady exponential growth' should normally be something of an oxymoron...

...but Bitcoin Grin

indeed
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March 22, 2013, 02:36:03 AM
 #18

I won't be surprised if we pull back to exponential support at $50, nor will I be surprised if we bum-rush $100 in a few days.

Because if we're now reaching the millionaires' club, we're going to have to shift up to a new exponent at some point. A steeper slope on the log-scale chart.
Tirapon
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March 22, 2013, 02:40:30 AM
 #19

But I want to buy more coins  Cry
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March 22, 2013, 02:51:59 AM
 #20

It's unreasonable to expect steady exponential (or steady anything) growth.

The user base will come flooding in in fits and starts.

For example, say the current rise is from the "Reddit effect". We all know that Redditors can bring down websites when they flood across the Internet to visit stories. It's unreasonable to expect that they will flow in in an exponential fashion: with one friend telling 2 and those 2 telling 4, and so on... rather, they will all descend at once.

There was a jump in prices as they all finally got funds cleared and bought. Then the price rose by ~60%, which will result in a renewed flourish of Internet activity, which will result in additional waves of takeup down the road.

I expect the same will be true for institutional or large investors. Big buys, then an amplifying network effect.

So rather than steady growth, we will see S-curve jumps. Each s-curve will have a ripple of following activity -- either resonant/amplifying, or dampening.

I expect (wild guess) the "Reddit effect" will be a large s-curve followed by smaller (dampening) s-curves.
I expect (wild guess) that the "Big investors" and the increased interest from European investors are a small effect now, but will be followed by amplifying effects.

Anyway, to cut to the chase.... It's reasonable to expect a much-high-than-exponential growth in the early days, interspersed with short periods of calm. I don't think that is indicative of a bubble. In fact, it makes sense to make the best of the steep part of each of the S-curves.... The bigger the stone cast, the wider the ripples.

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