Possible explanation for the recent 48 hrs price massacre (newbies post)

[andes]

Re-posting inside newbies, so that more people can comment.

I am no trader, but it makes sense to me that many miners or early adopters were waiting for some round number to cash out, and it happened that 30 dollars caused some wealthy bitcoiners to sell massively. Remember that the nature of bitcoin is a bit strange in that the early adopters got massive amounts of bitcoins at practically no cost, so this gives them incentive for selling massively at some point to get filthy rich. When they decide to cash out, massive price drops are to be expected. This in turn caused many other miners and scared weak hands to sell also, and the price to drop further.

If this theory is right, we should be just in a healthy correction, meaning bitcoins are changing hands from a first generation adopters owning dirt cheap bitcoins in massive amounts, to second generation adopters, owning less amounts of relatively more expensive bitcoins, and should see the price start rising again soon. The more early adopters sell their massive amounts of bitcoins, the healthier the bitcoin economy will be, because people who buy at higher prices dont have so many bitcoins, and are expecting to see more profit before voluntaily selling.

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[andes]

[andes]

I dont think too many early adopters must sell at the same time to see this price drop:

[killer2021]

Very interesting post I am expecting a rally.

[Valalvax]

I like pretty graphics, it lets me not read the stuff and still understand (just kidding, I read it the first time, and I agree, someone dumped their coins when the dumping was good... I bet you next time it makes it to 30 it'll happen again, because some rich (bitcoin-wise) guy will think "better do it before someone else does")

[ciore]

Very interesting explanation. Thx

[BitcoinPorn]

This is great.  I already liked the post just reading it.

[Nicolai Larsen]

Makes sense ^^

[browep]

where did that graph come from?  How did they get the data?  Would love to get my hands on it.

[k]

where did that graph come from?  How did they get the data?  Would love to get my hands on it.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts

[bitminerrr]

Interesting indeed. I wonder how btc will fair in the long term, do you guys think it's self sustaining?

[RandyFolds]

Bitcoinwatch has 2,027,616.34 BTC changing hands in the last 24 hours. I don't think the hoarded 'early adopter' stash is nearly as large as you suppose.

[SgtSpike]

I would be very curious to see the number of coins still sitting in their generation addresses from blocks created before April.

For instance:  The 50 BTC from the second block ever created is still sitting in an early adopter's hands.
http://blockexplorer.com/address/12c6DSiU4Rq3P4ZxziKxzrL5LmMBrzjrJX