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Author Topic: And I thought I would never live to see such a bubble  (Read 1188 times)
GotBitCoins
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March 22, 2013, 03:55:15 PM
 #1

Folks,

Here's the silver chart, beginning of 1980. For months it was traded for 10 $ a coin. And then around december 79  and around the beginning of December 79 @ around 20$ - it went balistic. At first it would climb 1.4% a day and then it went up at 6.7% a day til it got to 40$ where it had a mini correction and then resumed its climb till the all time high at around 50$ per coin!!!



And here we are again 33 years after - the people that are trading bitcoin today weren't even born in 1980 but nothing has changed - Are we at SOME top here - or should we experience a mini correction on our way for the final blow-out @100$ Huh



I am not saying that this would be the end of bitcoin as we know it... - it could go one day way beyond 100$ but for the time being this paraboloa is accelerating at ~11% per day - twice as fast as the rate silver was rising during the huge once in a life time super spike of the 80s....

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DannyHamilton
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March 22, 2013, 05:24:46 PM
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- snip -
I am not saying that this would be the end of bitcoin as we know it... - it could go one day way beyond 100$ but for the time being this paraboloa is accelerating at ~11% per day - twice as fast as the rate silver was rising during the huge once in a life time super spike of the 80s....

Do you have any information on how quickly the value of silver rose during the first 5 years after it was discovered?

TeeBone
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March 22, 2013, 05:44:54 PM
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Classic bubble, you can see it from 10 miles away...the panic buying is getting, well,  pretty panicky lol

You dont have to go back to 1980, in '11 when silver was skyrocketing towards 50/oz you saw the same exact feeling of its "nerver going back down again". Ditto with the houseing bubble.

I havent bought a single BTC yet, and it's tempting, but why buy now when i know it's gonna drop  Smiley

Also, there's an X factor that you cannot apply to trading other commodities - the newness, hacking and other security breaches that can have a severe impact on BTC. This applies elsewhere as well, but not nearly to the extent it does with BTC.

Best bet as a hedge against inflation is still gold in my book. Im astonished how underestimated it is, thousands of years timetested and still going strong.
GotBitCoins
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March 23, 2013, 07:55:25 AM
 #4

I told you....

Is it possible that I nailed the top few hours before it popped?



If this is it - then 2 days from now we should be at 60% of 75$ = 45$

GotBitCoins
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March 23, 2013, 08:06:29 AM
 #5

People's idea of a bubble is quite funny. You can only identify a bubble after a crash.

Sure, there are corrections, but that does not mean bubble.

It has been said a million times:

If BTC will be success, it have to go up in value even further (to accomodate new industries - making place for them in the BTC economy). There is only 1 significant aspect that drives the price and that is adoptation (be it companies adopting it or people investing in it, etc)

Anyone who uses the term "bubble" are completely ignorant of the fundamentals of this experiment.

cosmicblue
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March 23, 2013, 08:12:49 AM
 #6

Quote
If this is it - then 2 days from now we should be at 60% of 75$ = 45$
GotBitCoins
45$ would be a good bottom.

Big dom the donkey destroyer.
Sage
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March 23, 2013, 08:14:37 AM
 #7

As of March 5th the momentum increased significantly.  Usually a sign of a bubble starting.

But then we saw a consolidation period, and a breakout, with yet a greater momentum increase on 18/19th likely driven by the emotion of fear from the Cyprus thefts.

When that fear abates we'll see a correction of any gains that fear caused above and beyond the natural gains Bitcoin would have realized on its prior trend path.  Likely not below 47-50sh.

It's simply went too far, too fast since the 19th.  We are due for a pullback.

BUT....

If the blockchain fork didn't pop the "bubble" then that's a damn good sign the fundamentals are driving the price of Bitcoin.  We may see a correction, and hopefully a more reasonable and steady price increase afterword, but we are not going to see an all out pop below what it was trading at prior to the blockchain fork.

I'm hoping it does get that low.  If so I'm cashing out more precious metals and moving to Bitcoin.
TeeBone
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March 23, 2013, 08:17:24 AM
 #8

It's cash-out time for the early adopters !

I'll predict it settles around $35.
TeeBone
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March 23, 2013, 08:26:21 AM
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It's cash-out time for the earlier adopters !

I'll predict it settles around $35.
definitely not, as an experience trader holding a PhD in market analysis I am quite aware that early adopters are the ones that can be considered 'strong hands', this can be confirmed by checking the earliest blocks mining addresses which have remained in that address for thousands of days

BTC is as a whole is 'early' so it's relative. At any rate, surely there's gonna be a significant selloff after the frantic upswing the past few days/weeks. That's expected.
TeeBone
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March 23, 2013, 08:37:24 AM
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It's cash-out time for the earlier adopters !

I'll predict it settles around $35.
definitely not, as an experience trader holding a PhD in market analysis I am quite aware that early adopters are the ones that can be considered 'strong hands', this can be confirmed by checking the earliest blocks mining addresses which have remained in that address for thousands of days

BTC is as a whole is 'early' so it's relative. At any rate, surely there's gonna be a significant selloff after the frantic upswing the past few days/weeks. That's expected.
Lol you are really blinded by believing Bitcoin is 'early', because you want it to be early so you can make a profit like the 'really really early' people have done (10000%+ profits). That will obviously never happen anymore since everyone here is preying for that

The early stage has long passed my friend, Bitcoin is already covered in mainstream pretty much in any developed country

Nevertheless I believe we are going to a 1000 based on market analysis

Oh, i dont doubt it's going up. Way up. But, not before it dips one more time to 35 bucks lol i dont want to get suckered on my first coin purchase.
dyseac
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March 23, 2013, 08:40:52 AM
 #11

As an online currency - you could argue everyone on the internet could have a use for bitcoins. There are approx 2.4 billion internet users today.
With only 11 million bitcoins in circulation that equals 0.0045833333333333 bitcoins per internet user.

If everyone on the internet wants a coin... it puts them in pretty high demand right now Wink
TeeBone
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March 23, 2013, 08:47:46 AM
 #12

Down to 57, 25% loss in a matter of hours...
GoldenAngel
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March 23, 2013, 08:49:25 AM
 #13

No doubt this is going to be a huge explosion. You do not even need to go back to the 1980's...

Correlate the 2011 btc graph with today's and it will look shockingly similar. Lots of people are going to get burned.

Like really badly burnt.
wopwop
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March 23, 2013, 08:54:45 AM
 #14

BUY BUY BUY i am buying hands on fist right now can't wait till it goes 1000 $ LOL  stupid people selling
wopwop
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March 23, 2013, 08:56:13 AM
 #15

Wow cheap coins for all of us buying all the cheap coins atm Smiley
TeeBone
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March 23, 2013, 08:57:44 AM
 #16

53...
wopwop
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March 23, 2013, 09:00:24 AM
 #17

53...
Yeah I'm buying a lot atm this is THE last chance to buy cheap coins after this race on to 100 $ then 1000 $ PER BTC!!!

BUYING HARDCORE RIGHT NOW
dreem
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March 23, 2013, 09:35:41 AM
 #18

Buying 20 minutes ago near $50 was apparently a good idea, already back in the mud 60s
Kato
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March 23, 2013, 10:08:05 AM
 #19

Buying 20 minutes ago near $50 was apparently a good idea, already back in the mud 60s

...if the correction is over, that is... Wink
dreem
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March 23, 2013, 10:53:50 AM
 #20

Well, a sold 1 hour of being level is about as stable the bitcoin has been in the past week. People might be looking for the kind of stability around a month or so ago, but I would bet it fluctuates at least a little more.
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