Explain me - real bitcoin worth?

[Ilona]

Okay,

I'm merchant who start accepted bitcoin because of bitcoin community contacted us.

I also accumulated some bitcoins and sold them now with some profit. However, all this bitcoin
story is a bubble now. Bitcoin idea was "slow deflation" according to number of users/services starting
to accept bitcoins. But now, 10-15% daily price grow doesn't reflect the same grow of services.


Now, we say, that bitcoin overall value is 800 MLN USD.
So, how we can say that bitcoin price is 800 MLN USD, if 1 bitcoin cost 72 USD, but if you want to sell 10000 bitcoins,
 price will fall to 64.2 USD and while you sold only for 1/800 of the overall value, overall value will be -10%.

But how much it will be if, lets say, 200K bitcoin will be sold at mtgox right now, immediatelly.
200K bitcoins = 14 mln USD, only 1.6% from total market value. But lets see what will happen.
After 20K sold ,the price will move down from 72 to 60, then I have
no idea what will happen, because I do not see orders after 20K. But I believe, the price loss will be so high,
so mtgox.com will be closed immediatelly (its already happened july 2011). And now, what - you can't sell bitcoin,
you can't even know its real price!
And merchants can't accept it, just because we can't know its real price.

There are some bitcoin wallets who have this amount (40-100K of bitcoins), I just do not understand what they are
waiting for.

So how much bitcoin will cost if only 100-200K bitcoins will be sold now? I believe, nothing.

* Where I can immediatelly exchange bitcoin to real money if something will happen to mtgox? How can I use
bitcoin if mtgox.com will be broken? Now, MTGOX.COM is ONE AND ONLY real center of bitcoin market. No mtgox.com - bitcoin
value became 0. Where is a TRUE decentralisation? Do not mention other brokers, mtgox.com holds at least 90% of this market.


Thats why 70 USD price is SOOOOO speculated, its doesn't worth this price, just because in one hour all your savings
can cost 0. (the 2 cases why it could happen explained above).

What do you think ?

[xanrethan]

The real worth of bitcoins will come when people stop tying it so tightly to USD. Once the speculation evens out and people use bitcoins for things besides exchanging it for USD, the economy should start to even out. Right now, the speculation is all caused by people doing short term investments.

Think about it in these terms: if people kept buying gold the moment they got any USD, the price for gold would go up. But the reason we say it this way is we think about price in terms of USD. If we instead considered the price in terms of gold, you would get less gold for the same USD.

[DeathAndTaxes]

MtGox doesn't have 90% of the market.  MtGox doesn't have even 90% of the exchange volume more like 60% to 70%.  If you add in all OTC, and direct brokers it is probably less than half.

Still you already convinced your self Mtgox = ~100% of market and MtGox = Bitcoin so my guess is you have you mind made up.

BTW your depth numbers are just imaginary.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

I also accumulated some bitcoins and sold them now with some profit. However, all this bitcoin
story is a bubble now.

There are plenty of ways you can short bitcoin (make money if bitcoin falls).

If it's a bubble, there's free money waiting for you.

http://youtu.be/y-AXTx4PcKI?t=3m55s

[Ilona]

Bitcoin is convenient instument to get and send payments, yes.

The only thing what is disturbing me as a merchant - is a price fluctuation. 10-20% per day
is something that shouldn't happen. Yes, its grows now, but what if it willl start going down the same
speed as it was up? How you can trust your financial savings when price fluctuations are so high?

The idea of bitcoin is great, but speculation makes it unpredictable price for tomorrow. Bitcoin
SHOULD GROW slowly, according to real usage/services grows. But now, its grows just too fast.

When price grows much faster than usage/services, I feel it like a bubble.