This is a one man band

[rpietila]

I am a bitcoinophile, but do not see a rocket on Monday. Only a stellar piece of news will take us back up in the short term.

You could be underestimating lag with which "good news" affect BTC price. It takes time for newcomers to research Bitcoin and to put themselves into position where they can actually buy it.

This.

For me, it took about a year from when I first heard about Bitcoin, to the first opportunity to buy it (opening of Mt.Gox) and another year to my first smaaall purchase and a third year to my second purchase and half-a-year (until now) before I am finally confident to invest serious money. Too bad the price has seen a 1000-fold increase during my 3,5 years of waiting...

Quick to hear, slow to act.

Now 100s of millions have suddenly heard about Bitcoin, and it may take 1, 2, 3 or more YEARS for them to act in a serious way.

Unless Bitcoin outright vanishes, I believe for sure we will see a 10-fold increase in price in 2013-2015 based on what has already happened alone. All new developments just amplify the trend.

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[Piper67]

If the price remains in the 65-70 range by end of day Monday, it will pick up significantly starting Tuesday.

[rpietila]

If the price remains in the 65-70 range by end of day Monday, it will pick up significantly starting Tuesday.

In what range does it need to be, you believe, it will not pick up on Tuesday? 

[Manticore]

Its just the weekend..... things slow down a bit because the volume is less

Plus its just amateurs playing with the exchanges

Excuse me for asking, but who isn't an amateur in this market??

Well there are some professional traders who are active in the market (ie. people who trade for a living).

There are also some VC's, registered companies and hedge funds who trade.

AFAIK these people mostly trade during the week not at the weekends. You'll see things are more stable during the week for these reasons. These people are not likely to dump their entire holdings in 15 minutes, for example. They are more rational in their trading (ie. they have a trading plan).

Yes, a small minority of professional traders probably exists and and a small hedge fund or two (Malta, etc).....it looks as though the Malta fund is simply a vehicle aimed at institutional investors (who will simply buy and hold), other hedge funds, and, certainly more than anything, HNWIs. Likely that HNWIs will be the bulk of their investors as institutional money is largely much too conversation for direct BTC investment. So HNWIs (who may or may not be professionals) will be calling their own trades through the secondary market (via fund shares). This fund does not look to be discretionary.....so the fund itself is only buying/selling based on client interest in their fund, not based on any sort of strategy.

But, yeah....my point is that 95%+ of investors/traders in this market are not professionals. And does a professional BTC trader even exist?

[Nemesis]

I am a bitcoinophile, but do not see a rocket on Monday. Only a stellar piece of news will take us back up in the short term.

You could be underestimating lag with which "good news" affect BTC price. It takes time for newcomers to research Bitcoin and to put themselves into position where they can actually buy it.

This.

For me, it took about a year from when I first heard about Bitcoin, to the first opportunity to buy it (opening of Mt.Gox) and another year to my first smaaall purchase and a third year to my second purchase and half-a-year (until now) before I am finally confident to invest serious money. Too bad the price has seen a 1000-fold increase during my 3,5 years of waiting...

Quick to hear, slow to act.

Now 100s of millions have suddenly heard about Bitcoin, and it may take 1, 2, 3 or more YEARS for them to act in a serious way.

Unless Bitcoin outright vanishes, I believe for sure we will see a 10-fold increase in price in 2013-2015 based on what has already happened alone. All new developments just amplify the trend.

What a wise man with a wise thinking!
I will hold my btc for few years for you, just for you.

[rpietila]

I am a bitcoinophile, but do not see a rocket on Monday. Only a stellar piece of news will take us back up in the short term.

You could be underestimating lag with which "good news" affect BTC price. It takes time for newcomers to research Bitcoin and to put themselves into position where they can actually buy it.

This.

For me, it took about a year from when I first heard about Bitcoin, to the first opportunity to buy it (opening of Mt.Gox) and another year to my first smaaall purchase and a third year to my second purchase and half-a-year (until now) before I am finally confident to invest serious money. Too bad the price has seen a 1000-fold increase during my 3,5 years of waiting...

Quick to hear, slow to act.

Now 100s of millions have suddenly heard about Bitcoin, and it may take 1, 2, 3 or more YEARS for them to act in a serious way.

Unless Bitcoin outright vanishes, I believe for sure we will see a 10-fold increase in price in 2013-2015 based on what has already happened alone. All new developments just amplify the trend.

What a wise man with a wise thinking!
I will hold my btc for few years for you, just for you.

Nah, when I finally act, I do it and leave no prisoners. And I give you the opportunity to prove your worth in the process. How about this:

Hi folks, did you pick up anything in the fire sale?

<g> no. my trading engine was out of ga$, tried to call brokers to secure "whatever you can buy <55 for immediate wire transfer" but as I was talking it snapped 50->60 in Bitstamp, so I said LOL, wtf and went skiing.

Just came back, yawn. Call me if it goes back <55.

Brokers? Doing ths? ???lol

Yes, not one but 2. They're great, I can vouch for Bittiraha.fi (nick: Technomage), they buying some of the btc for me at lowlow commissions.

You see, I have so many entities in my control buying bitcoin, that I cannot possibly open exchange accounts for all of them (kyc stuff for corporations is crazy), let alone spend my 24/7 doing trading. Also Bittiraha offers instant lock-in, no money down. This is a dream when there is a dip. Or would be, if they themselves had any $$ in the exchanges at the moment of feast...

hahhaha . they did panic sell b4. I hope you hold those coins in your hand.

You seem like a tough guy. How about a battle of walls in Bitstamp next Tuesday? We both erect them, then dance a little, finally you sell to me at the going rate, sounds like a plan huh? 

$50k, 100k, works for me, ok?

[Manticore]

Its just the weekend..... things slow down a bit because the volume is less

Plus its just amateurs playing with the exchanges

Excuse me for asking, but who isn't an amateur in this market??

Well there are some professional traders who are active in the market (ie. people who trade for a living).

There are also some VC's, registered companies and hedge funds who trade.

AFAIK these people mostly trade during the week not at the weekends. You'll see things are more stable during the week for these reasons. These people are not likely to dump their entire holdings in 15 minutes, for example. They are more rational in their trading (ie. they have a trading plan).

Yes, a small minority of professional traders probably exists and and a small hedge fund or two (Malta, etc).....it looks as though the Malta fund is simply a vehicle aimed at institutional investors (who will simply buy and hold), other hedge funds, and, certainly more than anything, HNWIs. Likely that HNWIs will be the bulk of their investors as institutional money is largely much too conversation for direct BTC investment. So HNWIs (who may or may not be professionals) will be calling their own trades through the secondary market (via fund shares). This fund does not look to be discretionary.....so the fund itself is only buying/selling based on client interest in their fund, not based on any sort of strategy.

But, yeah....my point is that 95%+ of investors/traders in this market are not professionals. And does a professional BTC trader even exist?

conservative.....hmmmm.

[zby]

I wonder if all that silliness is a bullish or bear sign?  What do you think?

[xavier]

Its just the weekend..... things slow down a bit because the volume is less

Plus its just amateurs playing with the exchanges

Excuse me for asking, but who isn't an amateur in this market??

Well there are some professional traders who are active in the market (ie. people who trade for a living).

There are also some VC's, registered companies and hedge funds who trade.

AFAIK these people mostly trade during the week not at the weekends. You'll see things are more stable during the week for these reasons. These people are not likely to dump their entire holdings in 15 minutes, for example. They are more rational in their trading (ie. they have a trading plan).

Yes, a small minority of professional traders probably exists and and a small hedge fund or two (Malta, etc).....it looks as though the Malta fund is simply a vehicle aimed at institutional investors (who will simply buy and hold), other hedge funds, and, certainly more than anything, HNWIs. Likely that HNWIs will be the bulk of their investors as institutional money is largely much too conversation for direct BTC investment. So HNWIs (who may or may not be professionals) will be calling their own trades through the secondary market (via fund shares). This fund does not look to be discretionary.....so the fund itself is only buying/selling based on client interest in their fund, not based on any sort of strategy.

But, yeah....my point is that 95%+ of investors/traders in this market are not professionals. And does a professional BTC trader even exist?

Well this is my opinion having watched the market closely for the past few weeks.

Yes these traders do exist  , because I have seen them active and posting on these forums , I have read news articles about them (eg. http://reut.rs/H5N04G). IMO they are mostly on the buy side. I say this in part because the pattern of buying is very clever , whilst the selling is very stupid. Having spent some time watching the order book, it seems the people buying are mostly buying slow - in small chunks regularly over a number of days. The people selling are selling in large chunks, quickly all at once.

Thats one of the reasons Im bullish about bitcoin right now. My opinion is the clever people, the pro's, with the big money, are on the buy side. The amateurs panicking about the price are the ones selling.

Also please note, when I last checked there were nearly 350,000 accounts on MtGox. The market is large now, for that reason alone there are bound to be at least a few pros out there.

Disclaimer: this is my opinion only, I am not a professional, please do not shoot me and also please do your own analysis first before trading!

[Manticore]

Its just the weekend..... things slow down a bit because the volume is less

Plus its just amateurs playing with the exchanges

Excuse me for asking, but who isn't an amateur in this market??

Well there are some professional traders who are active in the market (ie. people who trade for a living).

There are also some VC's, registered companies and hedge funds who trade.

AFAIK these people mostly trade during the week not at the weekends. You'll see things are more stable during the week for these reasons. These people are not likely to dump their entire holdings in 15 minutes, for example. They are more rational in their trading (ie. they have a trading plan).

Yes, a small minority of professional traders probably exists and and a small hedge fund or two (Malta, etc).....it looks as though the Malta fund is simply a vehicle aimed at institutional investors (who will simply buy and hold), other hedge funds, and, certainly more than anything, HNWIs. Likely that HNWIs will be the bulk of their investors as institutional money is largely much too conversation for direct BTC investment. So HNWIs (who may or may not be professionals) will be calling their own trades through the secondary market (via fund shares). This fund does not look to be discretionary.....so the fund itself is only buying/selling based on client interest in their fund, not based on any sort of strategy.

But, yeah....my point is that 95%+ of investors/traders in this market are not professionals. And does a professional BTC trader even exist?

Well this is my opinion having watched the market closely for the past few weeks.

Yes these traders do exist  , because I have seen them active and posting on these forums , I have read news articles about them (eg. http://reut.rs/H5N04G). IMO they are mostly on the buy side. I say this in part because the pattern of buying is very clever , whilst the selling is very stupid. Having spent some time watching the order book, it seems the people buying are mostly buying slow - in small chunks regularly over a number of days. The people selling are selling in large chunks, quickly all at once.

Thats one of the reasons Im bullish about bitcoin right now. My opinion is the clever people, the pro's, with the big money, are on the buy side. The amateurs panicking about the price are the ones selling.

Also please note, when I last checked there were nearly 350,000 accounts on MtGox. The market is large now, for that reason alone there are bound to be at least a few pros out there.

Disclaimer: this is my opinion only, I am not a professional, please do not shoot me and also please do your own analysis first before trading!

I've read that article previously and it has nothing to do with 'pro's with the big money'. Those traders are not using their firms $$ to trade BTC, they are using their own risk capital. Those traders make much riskier and smaller trades than they would ever do with their firms $$ (plus, they likely can't hold securities positions overnight, much less in BTC). They are less prone to buy at these higher levels (they typically look for the quick 10 bagger). Most Wall Street professional traders could never be true believers in BTC and one would have to be a true blue believer to hope for a quick 10 bagger when entering at current levels (they have their 10 bagger currently, as per date of article).

I do not dispute the spirit of what you are saying; you probably have a better handle on the current trades than I do. Just because people are throwing around 'hedge funds', 'VC', etc, it doesn't necessarily mean these groups are moving directly into BTC. If anything, they want to fund start-ups and dabble, for the most part, on MtGox. Perhaps they will move into this in a more meaningful way soon, who knows. There is nowhere near the liquidity in this market for large money managers to get involved at this point......

[Manticore]

I am a bitcoinophile, but do not see a rocket on Monday. Only a stellar piece of news will take us back up in the short term.

You could be underestimating lag with which "good news" affect BTC price. It takes time for newcomers to research Bitcoin and to put themselves into position where they can actually buy it.

Yes, I could be.....

[Luno]

I am a bitcoinophile, but do not see a rocket on Monday. Only a stellar piece of news will take us back up in the short term.

You could be underestimating lag with which "good news" affect BTC price. It takes time for newcomers to research Bitcoin and to put themselves into position where they can actually buy it.

Yes, I could be.....

The more mainstream Bitcoin gets, less time will pass before a potential buyer makes his first purchase.
It's the sheep follow sheep effect. How many Iphone buyers consider specs and Androids before deciding to buy?

[Vladimir]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ

This is what is happening with Bitcoin. We are at "the first follower stage" here I bet.