hardware valuations

[filharvey]

K, we are seeing some nice hardware either out in the wild or promised soon (bfl)

With people who have ordered hardware how would you go about valuing it.

A bfl jalapeño, is 4.5g which at current numbers is about BTC0.45 a day.
A bfl 30g single is BTC3.1
A bfl 60g is BTC6.2
A bfl mini rig is BTC155
A Avalon is BTC6.7

Yes the Avalon is the only one out, but what would u put sale prices on these devices if u were to get them, in the next month, so say diff rises maybe 50%.

Interesting to see what people value their current investments at. I've seen a couple of people willing to sell Avalon batch 2s for 125-150, but thoseto me look reasonable, if diff does not rise too much and pricing of BTC remains above $40.


phil

[Dalkore]

Avalon should be on the top being that it is shipping.   I am interested in seeing people's estimates.

[bittenbob]

My Batch 2 Avalon Pre-Order #666 is available for the low price of just 666 BTC   
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156925.0

[franky1]

edit: apples contain more then 2 seeds each lol 5-6 generally

id base it on hardware cost + 20%-100% profit margin.

not based on after sales speculated production possibilities.

EG would a farmer pay $1000 for a bag of 100 apple fruit seeds which he knew he could grow 500 apple trees to get him 15k apples containing 5 seeds each. giving him 75k seeds/fruit free's in a just few years

nope 50 apples can be bought for well under $50

[Dalkore]

id base it on hardware cost + 20%-100% profit margin.

not based on after sales speculated production possibilities.

EG would a farmer pay $1000 for a bag of 100 apple or orange seeds which he knew he could grow into apple trees to get him 30k apples containing half 2 seeds each (60k seeds) in a few years

nope 50 apples can be bought for well under $50

If apples were $50+ each what would he pay?  How much would seeds go for?

[bittenbob]

If apples we $50+ each what would he pay?  How much would seeds go for?

And what if the price of those apples could be $100 or more by the time they are ripe?

[Dalkore]

If apples we $50+ each what would he pay?  How much would seeds go for?

And what if the price of those apples could be $100 or more by the time they are ripe?

Ah the pure speculative risk.  Heck, maybe you should just sell it to him for $2,000 USD 

[franky1]

If apples were $50+ each what would he pay?  How much would seeds go for?

if apples were $50 each and just wanted 5 seeds then id pay $10-$15 a seed. as id know it only cost the seed producer the cost of slicing a single apple open to make it.

how much those 5 seeds can make me in the future is irrelevant.

whats next selling an unknown artists art for 1 milion dollars purely on the speculation that after he dies it will be worth $2mill or selling pokemon cards to kids for $1000 each at first release purely on the speculation that by the time they reach pension age they will be worth $2000 each

And what if the price of those apples could be $100 or more by the time they are ripe?

if apples were $50 and maybe $100 in a few months due to world market changes. i would not pay thousands of dollars knowing it only cost the manufacturer less then $50 to make.

[Dalkore]

If apples were $50+ each what would he pay?  How much would seeds go for?

if apples were $50 each and just wanted 5 seeds then id pay $10-$15 a seed. as id know it only cost the seed producer the cost of slicing a single apple open to make it.

how much those 5 seeds can make me in the future is irrelevant.

whats next selling an unknown artists art for 1 milion dollars purely on the speculation that after he dies it will be worth $2mill or selling pokemon cards to kids for $1000 each at first release purely on the speculation that by the time they reach pension age they will be worth $2000 each

And what if the price of those apples could be $100 or more by the time they are ripe?

if apples were $50 and maybe $100 in a few months due to world market changes. i would not pay thousands of dollars knowing it only cost the manufacturer less then $50 to make.

Ahh but here is where your logic needs to reflect more, now take that scenario and what if there were only 21 million potential seeds for making a single apple and it is unknown how many of those eventual apples made it?   Now were are getting closer to a reflection of why the hardware carries such a premium.   

[coinnewb]

Hardware price will be whatever the market is willing to bear.  No amount of discussing or arguing about it is going to change that.

[franky1]

If apples were $50+ each what would he pay?  How much would seeds go for?

if apples were $50 each and just wanted 5 seeds then id pay $10-$15 a seed. as id know it only cost the seed producer the cost of slicing a single apple open to make it.

how much those 5 seeds can make me in the future is irrelevant.

whats next selling an unknown artists art for 1 milion dollars purely on the speculation that after he dies it will be worth $2mill or selling pokemon cards to kids for $1000 each at first release purely on the speculation that by the time they reach pension age they will be worth $2000 each

And what if the price of those apples could be $100 or more by the time they are ripe?

if apples were $50 and maybe $100 in a few months due to world market changes. i would not pay thousands of dollars knowing it only cost the manufacturer less then $50 to make.

Ahh but here is where your logic needs to reflect more, now take that scenario and what if there were only 21 million potential seeds for making a single apple and it is unknown how many of those eventual apples made it?   Now were are getting closer to a reflection of why the hardware carries such a premium.   

then logic shows that what could have earned me 10 apples last month is only earning me 6 apples this month id firstly be unhappy with a 2 month delivery time.

but id still only pay what it cost to make with a reasonable profit ontop for the manufacturer.

[Dalkore]

If apples were $50+ each what would he pay?  How much would seeds go for?

if apples were $50 each and just wanted 5 seeds then id pay $10-$15 a seed. as id know it only cost the seed producer the cost of slicing a single apple open to make it.

how much those 5 seeds can make me in the future is irrelevant.

whats next selling an unknown artists art for 1 milion dollars purely on the speculation that after he dies it will be worth $2mill or selling pokemon cards to kids for $1000 each at first release purely on the speculation that by the time they reach pension age they will be worth $2000 each

And what if the price of those apples could be $100 or more by the time they are ripe?

if apples were $50 and maybe $100 in a few months due to world market changes. i would not pay thousands of dollars knowing it only cost the manufacturer less then $50 to make.

Ahh but here is where your logic needs to reflect more, now take that scenario and what if there were only 21 million potential seeds for making a single apple and it is unknown how many of those eventual apples made it?   Now were are getting closer to a reflection of why the hardware carries such a premium.   

then logic shows that what could have earned me 10 apples last month is only earning me 6 apples this month id firstly be unhappy with a 2 month delivery time.

but id still only pay what it cost to make with a reasonable profit ontop for the manufacturer.

Are you saying that a 600% profit margin is unreasonable on something that could literally provide ROI + upto 600% profit 12-24 months?   Pure speculation but at this stage, you need to be real serious and in it for the long-haul.   The low hanging fruit is just about gone.   Only hard digging from here.   Glad I got my hardhat.

D

[franky1]

Are you saying that a 600% profit margin is unreasonable on something that could literally provide ROI + upto 600% profit 12-24 months?   Pure speculation but at this stage, you need to be real serious and in it for the long-haul.   The low hanging fruit is just about gone.   Only hard digging from here.   Glad I got my hardhat.

D

yep the days of pick axing for gold are over and its now time to get the excavators in. but excavator manufacturer would never sell an excavator for $1,000,000 if he knows its only cost $30k to make, even if he knows in 2 years time the customer will be a multi millionaire.

the excavator manufacturer would see their costs of parts and labour of $30k and add some business profit, so maybe $30k-$100k depending on qualify of product and any aftercare support they offer. never based on customers production speculations over a 12 month period

[Dalkore]

Are you saying that a 600% profit margin is unreasonable on something that could literally provide ROI + upto 600% profit 12-24 months?   Pure speculation but at this stage, you need to be real serious and in it for the long-haul.   The low hanging fruit is just about gone.   Only hard digging from here.   Glad I got my hardhat.

D

yep the days of pick axing for gold are over and its now time to get the excavators in. but excavator manufacturer would never sell an excavator for $1,000,000 if he knows its only cost $30k to make, even if he knows in 2 years time the customer will be a multi millionaire.

the excavator manufacturer would see their costs of parts and labour of $30k and add some business profit, so maybe $30k-$100k deending on qualify of product and any aftercare support they offer. never based on customers production speculations over a 12 month period

Your wrong, if this excavator had a gold-radar that could pin-point the gold with quite good accuracy to a certain depth, he would sell it for a huge premium.

[franky1]

Are you saying that a 600% profit margin is unreasonable on something that could literally provide ROI + upto 600% profit 12-24 months?   Pure speculation but at this stage, you need to be real serious and in it for the long-haul.   The low hanging fruit is just about gone.   Only hard digging from here.   Glad I got my hardhat.

D

yep the days of pick axing for gold are over and its now time to get the excavators in. but excavator manufacturer would never sell an excavator for $1,000,000 if he knows its only cost $30k to make, even if he knows in 2 years time the customer will be a multi millionaire.

the excavator manufacturer would see their costs of parts and labour of $30k and add some business profit, so maybe $30k-$100k deending on qualify of product and any aftercare support they offer. never based on customers production speculations over a 12 month period

Your wrong, if this excavator had a gold-radar that could pin-point the gold with quite good accuracy to a certain depth, he would sell it for a huge premium.

lol this is turning into a great comedy thread.

gold miners know where the gold are, they know what plots of land are rich in gold. the equipment should not be valued on the POTENTIAL SPECULATED GUESSED SUGGESTED profits of the customer but based on the manufacturing costs of the machine.

[onealfa]

.....
gold miners know ...... the equipment should not be valued on .........but based on the manufacturing costs of the machine.

Totally and fully disagree.

Q:What is the main factor what determines the price of BTC on the exchanges (MtGox)?
A: Purely - the ratio between demand and availability.  ( and +, perhaps, the level of future hopes)

Why would then the "BTC equipment" be different ?

IMHO, Bitsyncom sure made a lot of calculations. And they would be silly to keep selling this product at the price, which jumped up in a "second-hand" market 10-20 TIMES (!)  in less then 6 weeks.

[Dalkore]

.....
gold miners know ...... the equipment should not be valued on .........but based on the manufacturing costs of the machine.

Totally and fully disagree.

Q:What is the main factor what determines the price of BTC on the exchanges (MtGox)?
A: Purely - the ratio between demand and availability.  ( and +, perhaps, the level of future hopes)

Why would then the "BTC equipment" be different ?

IMHO, Bitsyncom sure made a lot of calculations. And they would be silly to keep selling this product at the price, which jumped up in a "second-hand" market 10-20 TIMES (!)  in less then 6 weeks.

Exactly.

Why should that value (money on the table) be capture by equipment speculators and not the company that will eventually need to grade to a better chip size?   If we knew that all the miners were just going to mine and send a large portion of those gains back to Avalon, you might have a case.  Unfortunately we can't guarantee that so it is better with Avalon than equipment flippers.