If the 75$/bitcoin price was a bubble

[Canaanite]

It would explode yesterday (23/03/2013)
Losing 30% of its value in few hours and than recover means the value is valid, don't you guys think so?

Although people tend forget that 30% decrease out of 75 is 52.5 while 30% decrease out of 20 is 14 the latter doesn't looks that scary as the first one

[1715184964]

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[yocko06]

There is no bitcoin bubble. People who say this are generally speaking without any knowledge of bitcoin at all. People who know the fundamentals of bitcoin can see that the only way it is going to be destroyed is by a severe fault of some sort. not because someone wants to sell heaps of bitcoins and the buy demand isn't there at the exact time. Bitcoin will work it's way maybe slowly but it will succeeded the $75. mark.     

[BIGMERVE]

Not a bubble just a bear trap.

[gollum]

I regret that I didnt buy bitcoin at levels between 2-5$ where I became aware of bitcoin and became a "believer".

Either you believe in bitcoin or you dont.
If you believe in bitcoin you should invest in bitcoin with at least 10% of your salary each month plus make a big onetime buy on a dip.

My longer term view for bitcoin is bullish: If bitcoin really becomes the no. 1 Internet currency / payment system the valuation should be compared to Visa (106 Billion $) and Mastercard (63 Billion$). If we assume Bitcoin is most suitable for the young generation 25% of total credit card transactions and usable for 10% of their transactions (online and on smartphone) each year the result is that 2,5 % of the worlds total credit card transaction have the potential to move to Bitcoin instead.

If we assume that the valuation of all credit card related companies are 300 billion dollars, Bitcoins valuation should be 7,5 Billion dollars. Since it is in growth we should discount for greater user base in the future so the valuation can be several times greater than established credit card companies - 7,5 x 3 = 22,5 Billion dollars = 1071$/ BTC.

But the way is not straight - I assume we will have many crashes to 1000$. Right now I wouldnt be surprised if bitcoin would crash to 20-30$ before stabilizing.


Conclusion

-Buy bitcoin on huge dips with money you can afford to lose.
-Buy Bitcoin regulary every month if you can
-1000 $/BTC is a realistic target if Bitcoin increases in popularity and a growing ecosystem of bitcoin shops.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

[Canaanite]

I regret that I didnt buy bitcoin at levels between 2-5$ where I became aware of bitcoin and became a "believer".

Either you believe in bitcoin or you dont.
If you believe in bitcoin you should invest in bitcoin with at least 10% of your salary each month plus make a big onetime buy on a dip.

My longer term view for bitcoin is bullish: If bitcoin really becomes the no. 1 Internet currency / payment system the valuation should be compared to Visa (106 Billion $) and Mastercard (63 Billion$). If we assume Bitcoin is most suitable for the young generation 25% of total credit card transactions and usable for 10% of their transactions (online and on smartphone) each year the result is that 2,5 % of the worlds total credit card transaction have the potential to move to Bitcoin instead.

If we assume that the valuation of all credit card related companies are 300 billion dollars, Bitcoins valuation should be 7,5 Billion dollars. Since it is in growth we should discount for greater user base in the future so the valuation can be several times greater than established credit card companies - 7,5 x 3 = 22,5 Billion dollars = 1071$/ BTC.

But the way is not straight - I assume we will have many crashes to 1000$. Right now I wouldnt be surprised if bitcoin would crash to 20-30$ before stabilizing.


Conclusion

-Buy bitcoin on huge dips with money you can afford to lose.
-Buy Bitcoin regulary every month if you can
-1000 $/BTC is a realistic target if Bitcoin increases in popularity and a growing ecosystem of bitcoin shops.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

Hey, I dont know where you got your info, but paypal alone had transactions volume of 150billion$.
If Bitcoin will be really become an accepted currency I think you can add additional 0 to the 1000
But its not something that happens within a night, It is still hard to make transactions with bitcoin and it is way more comfortable to deal with Fiat money at the moment. Its a long process that might take additional few years.
 

[gmiwenht]

There is no bitcoin bubble. People who say this are generally speaking without any knowledge of bitcoin at all.

or bubbles

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Losing 30% of its value in few hours and than recover means the value is valid, don't you guys think so?

Actually, it can be a Bull trap, and/or denial. Sharp drop, sharp retrace.

There is no bitcoin bubble. People who say this are generally speaking without any knowledge of bitcoin at all.

500% in three months without a correction, not a bubble? lol People who say it's not a bubble have no experience of financial markets. See, I can make generalizations too!

People who know the fundamentals of bitcoin ..The rest of this irrelevant statement was ignored.

The fundamentals are no different than in 2009 when the genesis block was mined. A few useless sites that accept Bitcoin is not a fundamental plus. When I can pay my electricity, or car payment, or mortgage, or speeding tickets, or hospital bills, even buy something directly on Newegg (without a third party), etc THAT will be a fundamental change.
How is Bitcoin going to take over the world with only 7tx/second? Mastercard does that on a slow day, with broken machines and a blind lady manually punching in the CC#.
You can't get them easily, and if you buy more than 10, you break the exchanges.

Just because it may potentially be worth $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 one day, doesn't mean it's worth it now. I have this shiny new copper penny. It can do all the things listed above, it's physical so you can't delete it, and it still works without internet. Will you buy it for $70?
Bitcoin is not ready to go mainstream. If you push it too fast, before it can handle the volume, the general public will dismiss it faster than they adopt it...The End!


All that said, it will go up further still, after all, it is a bubble

[Vladimir]

LOL, bears in denial are so funny

[Dargo]

The quick recovery is bullish for sure. But it could still take weeks of chopping around and basing before we break $75. We could even see price < $52 before we see > $75, but I think this is unlikely. 

[gollum]

Hey, I dont know where you got your info, but paypal alone had transactions volume of 150billion$.
If Bitcoin will be really become an accepted currency I think you can add additional 0 to the 1000
But its not something that happens within a night, It is still hard to make transactions with bitcoin and it is way more comfortable to deal with Fiat money at the moment. Its a long process that might take additional few years.
 

Im talking about the market cap of VISA and Mastercard and other credit card companies on the stock market - not the transaction value they handle and profit from.

[meowmeowbrowncow]

Don't complain about 50.  IMO, it's a more fundamentally reasonable (stable) rate.


Now, if gov't blunders keep coming - and 'mass adoption' that everyone speculates about, but provides little evidence, does come to fruition.  Then there will be little reason to be bearish.

[Picklee]

it's physical so you can't delete it,

MYTH #1: bitcoins can't be deleted either.

and it still works without internet.

MYTH #2: the bitcoin network doesn't need the internet to continue functioning.

Bitcoin is not ready to go mainstream. If you push it too fast, before it can handle the volume, the general public will dismiss it faster than they adopt it...The End!

I agree, demand for BTC is high and people who have been mining for the past year have hefty hoards of BTC waiting for the market or the "right price". Although I don't think the public will "dismiss" BTC outright, I do think that the public will be resistant to adoption if the supply of BTC is held up by a handful of big hoarders waiting for the $1,000 mark.

[klee]

This chart is useful to see the bubbles AND the exponential growth in action:

http://visualeconsite.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Real-Long_term-US-Stock-Growth.png

1 Buy
2 Hold
3 GOTO1

[Matthew N. Wright]

If you believe in bitcoin you should invest in bitcoin with at least 10% of your salary each month plus make a big onetime buy on a dip.

Reading this gave me a sick feeling in my stomach. Do you honestly think that in order to believe in bitcoin (which we'll consider for the time being as being a public company stock, because that's exactly what it is) you have to *buy* it even when you don't need any bitcoins? Buy bitcoins when you need them, sell them when you don't. That's what a *currency* is for. Do you buy Canadian currency regularly while living in America? Do you buy Korean Won while living in Africa? Do you put money into your paypal account when you have no intention of paying for anything with Paypal this month? Why would anyone who believes in Bitcoin as a currency act in this way?

Okay, so you're not believing in it as a currency (good, because it's not one), but as a stock of a public company, whose owners are *everyone* who uses it and the stock splits every block. Fine. Then you're involved in bitcoin as an investment scheme.

To summarize:

If you believe in bitcoin, use it.
If you want to play the lottery and get rich quick, take the risk of buying some and holding them.

[Richy_T]

Reading this gave me a sick feeling in my stomach. Do you honestly think that in order to believe in bitcoin (which we'll consider for the time being as being a public company stock, because that's exactly what it is) you have to *buy* it even when you don't need any bitcoins? Buy bitcoins when you need them, sell them when you don't. That's what a *currency* is for. Do you buy Canadian currency regularly while living in America? Do you buy Korean Won while living in Africa? Do you put money into your paypal account when you have no intention of paying for anything with Paypal this month? Why would anyone who believes in Bitcoin as a currency act in this way?

Okay, so you're not believing in it as a currency (good, because it's not one), but as a stock of a public company, whose owners are *everyone* who uses it and the stock splits every block. Fine. Then you're involved in bitcoin as an investment scheme.

To summarize:

If you believe in bitcoin, use it.
If you want to play the lottery and get rich quick, take the risk of buying some and holding them.

Just like you keep some $ in your wallet, you probably want to hold some BTC even if you just want to use it as a currency right now. I spent a few of mine last week and by the time I replenished them, the price was up over $5.

[Wekkel]

Would you rather hold fiat in a PIGGS bank?

Bernanke prints 4 BTC markets a day. It's buy and hold for me. And of course I use BTC when convenient.

[Matthew N. Wright]

Would you rather hold fiat in a PIGGS bank?

Bernanke prints 4 BTC markets a day. It's buy and hold for me. And of course I use BTC when convenient.

Money isn't emotional. Once a bitcoiner starts reacting emotionally and convulsing in anger and neckbeard rage, it throws up red flags as to their true intentions. Stop being emotional about money. It's purely a question of logic-- which will fall easier and quicker, the broken USD market that is backed and believed in by most everyone in the world and the US military, or a private beta project backed by speculators looking to get rich quick?

Hold BTC, hold USD. When you emotionally object to holding other currencies than bitcoin, people expect the next words from you to be about reptilian overlords.

[Wekkel]

I am not that enthusiastic 

It's the technology that interests me.

[evolve]

Losing 30% of its value in few hours and than recover means the value is valid, don't you guys think so?

Nope. Huge swings in price that increase as the price gets higher doesn't validate the price, if anything it points to this being a bubble driven by speculation.

I've been warning you guys to be careful since the high 20's...yet I still see people leveraging debt to jump into the market.  Yes there is still a lot of potential upside (hell, I still have a few bucks in the game), but most of you are going to get burned because you are too scared to take profits and are buying into the "new paradigm" hype (ie: 1 BTC will be worth millions of dollars, traditional investment wisdom doesn't apply, etc).

[Vladimir]

It is just market fucking with payment processor of Avalon that is trying to dump BTC.