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Author Topic: Don't forget: There will probably be further batches from Avalon  (Read 2645 times)
Global BTC
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March 24, 2013, 10:31:44 PM
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If you are considering spending 88BTC on a batch #3 Avalon miner, don't forget that Avalon will probably not quit producing and selling their miners after batch #3. By then, they will have upped their production capacity. They will also be able to sell their miners at a considerably lower price. In fact, they will probably have to lower the price quite a lot in order to sell any large numbers, since mining profitability will drop considerably when all of batch #1 and #2, and most of #3, along with the competing ASIC miners, has been installed.

My guess is that batch #4 will be sold with something like a 50% markup over production costs, which means a couple of hundred dollars. The volume will also be larger, maybe 2500 units?

I'm pulling these numbers out of my ass, but it makes complete sense for Avalon to get what they can out of the market and keep lowering the price of their products in order to do so.

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March 24, 2013, 10:42:21 PM
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all that is probably true, but by the time batch #4 will be out, difficulty will be sky high. People want avalons NOW to make all that uber mega fancy profit, get rich, retire early and drive bugatti  Grin
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March 24, 2013, 11:20:08 PM
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You think that after BFL launch his 65nm chip someone buy Avalon with 110nm tecnology?
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March 24, 2013, 11:21:49 PM
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all that is probably true, but by the time batch #4 will be out, difficulty will be sky high. People want avalons NOW to make all that uber mega fancy profit, get rich, retire early and drive bugatti  Grin

+1 this^

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March 24, 2013, 11:27:07 PM
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Since the launch of their site there have been three batches listed. Maybe no more batches are made?
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March 24, 2013, 11:33:48 PM
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Regarding aTg's question: I for one will NEVER buy a BFL unit, I don't care if it's one angstrom technology and mines 120 bazillion petahashes per microsecond while drawing 0.1watt from my cell phone charger, and spits teddy bears out its ass while it's doing it, for the low low price of US$1.99.  Not gonna happen.  The way they've constantly pushed back their ship dates, on a series of products, is totally unacceptable to me and I just can't see myself supporting them no matter how great their product may turn out to be.

Having said all that, there's not a really huge difference between 65nm and 110nm chips.  Really it boils down to power consumption (about double) and die size (about quadruple the area).  Power consumption does matter, but in the near term at least the power draw will be more or less insignificant compared to the mining profits to be had.  Chip die size matters not one iota, since the package has to be a certain minimum size anyways: does it really matter if the die inside that 10mm square plastic chip is 5mm square or 3?

I'm lumping all my available cash into my bitcoin wallet, primed and ready to pull the trigger the moment I get that magic email from Avalon.

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March 24, 2013, 11:38:57 PM
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Regarding aTg's question: I for one will NEVER buy a BFL unit, I don't care if it's one angstrom technology and mines 120 bazillion petahashes per microsecond while drawing 0.1watt from my cell phone charger, and spits teddy bears out its ass while it's doing it, for the low low price of US$1.99.  Not gonna happen.  The way they've constantly pushed back their ship dates, on a series of products, is totally unacceptable to me and I just can't see myself supporting them no matter how great their product may turn out to be.

Having said all that, there's not a really huge difference between 65nm and 110nm chips.  Really it boils down to power consumption (about double) and die size (about quadruple the area).  Power consumption does matter, but in the near term at least the power draw will be more or less insignificant compared to the mining profits to be had.  Chip die size matters not one iota, since the package has to be a certain minimum size anyways: does it really matter if the die inside that 10mm square plastic chip is 5mm square or 3?

I'm lumping all my available cash into my bitcoin wallet, primed and ready to pull the trigger the moment I get that magic email from Avalon.
How is 620w vs 60w just double?  Last I checked, 620w was more than 10x 60w.

I agree that power draw isn't a hugely significant factor right now though.
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March 24, 2013, 11:54:14 PM
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Likely they will be moving to the new chip in Batch #4 or 5 I would assume.  This will give us our power efficiency.

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March 25, 2013, 12:12:25 AM
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You think that after BFL launch his 65nm chip someone buy Avalon with 110nm tecnology?

You're right. When BFL launches in 4-6 months, Avalon will have a hard time selling 110nm technology. I suspect the price of batch #3 is going to give Avalon the funds they need to improve their process node.

Buy & Hold
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March 25, 2013, 12:18:16 AM
 #10

This is a very special occasion caused by BFL's delay, almost like a lottery. Those who missed the BFL annoncement in June/July and managed to grab some Avalon in October unexpectedly becomes the most benefited Cheesy

On the other hand, those mining professionals who closely followed every step of BFL's ASIC offering from the very first day has yet to see some concret test results, big test for tolerance  Grin

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March 25, 2013, 12:56:10 AM
 #11

all that is probably true, but by the time batch #4 will be out, difficulty will be sky high. People want avalons NOW to make all that uber mega fancy profit, get rich, retire early and drive bugatti  Grin

And yet batch one is still not finished, and batch two is taking a "break". Batch 3 purchases are foolish.
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March 25, 2013, 08:07:47 AM
 #12

all that is probably true, but by the time batch #4 will be out, difficulty will be sky high. People want avalons NOW to make all that uber mega fancy profit, get rich, retire early and drive bugatti  Grin

Yes, and that's my point. It won't work, because difficulty will get even higher than the sky, before they have even broken even with their BTC88 investment.

Since the launch of their site there have been three batches listed. Maybe no more batches are made?

Do you believe that? Why?

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March 25, 2013, 10:22:30 AM
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In the latest newsletter they said they will be no batch #4 scheduled.
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March 25, 2013, 11:35:04 AM
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most likely after batch 3 they will built their own mining farm , not selling batch 4.
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March 25, 2013, 01:54:29 PM
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most likely after batch 3 they will built their own mining farm , not selling batch 4.

I guess this could be the future of bitcoin, there will be many companies competing for the mining operation with petahash installations, and they seldom sell to public, only investors

Of course to reach that stage, bitcoin price will need to break $10K, at least a couple of years down the road

And, if the price of bitcoin crashed due to some software problem, then all these companies will go bust holding lots of cheap coins, so they might still consider sell part of their hardware in exchange of fiat currency

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March 25, 2013, 02:07:44 PM
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They'll offer chips and diagram to the market after this batch, it was planned for after batch#1 but competition didn't show up.

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March 25, 2013, 02:17:50 PM
 #17

They'll offer chips and diagram to the market after this batch, it was planned for after batch#1 but competition didn't show up.
And it seems that in Russia we have first confirmed chip buyers. They want to build small 2.8-3.0Gh device at price $200-$220..
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March 25, 2013, 02:23:17 PM
 #18

They'll offer chips and diagram to the market after this batch, it was planned for after batch#1 but competition didn't show up.

And it seems that in Russia we have first confirmed chip buyers. They want to build small 2.8-3.0Gh device at price $200-$220..

Where do you get this information?

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March 25, 2013, 02:31:08 PM
 #19

They'll offer chips and diagram to the market after this batch, it was planned for after batch#1 but competition didn't show up.

And it seems that in Russia we have first confirmed chip buyers. They want to build small 2.8-3.0Gh device at price $200-$220..

Where do you get this information?
Link to Russian thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157937.0
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March 25, 2013, 02:34:44 PM
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They'll offer chips and diagram to the market after this batch, it was planned for after batch#1 but competition didn't show up.

And it seems that in Russia we have first confirmed chip buyers. They want to build small 2.8-3.0Gh device at price $200-$220..

Where do you get this information?
Link to Russian thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157937.0

Hardly surprising given the recent additions to Avalon's website:

Quote
Is there any plan to sell just the ASIC themselves and let others build their own units?

Yes, if you are interested and are ready to purchase 10,000 chips or more. ( the 65Gh/s unit has 240 chips. ) Please contact init.d (at) bitsyn.com for more information.

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