Bitcoin price vs. market cap

[Sir Alpha_goy]

From coinmarketcap.com (All):

27-Nov-2013
Price = $983
Market Cap = 11,850,000,000
Coin Count = 12,050,000 (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=all)


19-Jun-2016
Price = $753
Market Cap = 11,813,000,000
Coin Count = 15,700,000



It appears market cap line has been slowly drifting away from USD price line.

Will this trend continue?

Is this only a function of coin supply or is something else going on?

Bitcoin is more established since 2013 and has more publicity yet the share value can't stabilize past 2013 highs?

A claim has been made that Bitcoin will slowly walk to $1000 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxkKkN0hluk)

Then "all of a sudden" it gets monkey hammered down by 1,300,000,000 USD volume?

Then to top it off Kim dotcom is supposed to save Bitcoin using the Winklevoss ~$2200 flash spike as a target price?



Who the hell is running this ship?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaEFUwt5eT8




I hear that when you try to change something from within that it ends up changing you.



From Investopedia:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp

Large-cap companies typically have a market capitalization of $10 billion or more. These large companies have usually been around for a long time, and they are major players in well-established industries. Investing in large-cap companies does not necessarily bring in huge returns in a short period of time, but over the long run, these companies generally reward investors with a consistent increase in share value and dividend payments. An example of a large-cap company is International Business Machines Corp.

Mid-cap companies generally have a market capitalization of between $2 billion and $10 billion. Mid-cap companies are established companies that operate in an industry expected to experience rapid growth. Mid-cap companies are in the process of expanding. They carry inherently higher risk than large-cap companies because they are not as established, but they are attractive for their growth potential. An example of a mid-cap company is Eagle Materials Inc.

Something to think about...

[macedoniantable]

Very interesting concept you have uncovered here.
I did not realize the markets were so convoluted like that.
It really makes you wonder who really is running this ship and where we will all end up maybe like those on Gillian's Island.

[CraigWrightBTC]

It is still opinion and analysis by another people, every body can make opinions and analysis. The connection between price of bitcoin and marketcap has power prediction 50:50 only, so depend on our way trade because we have best way for trading and get profit.

[yenxz]

We can see that the relationship between the price of BTC and marketcap have any predictive 50:50 so dependent on trade journey because we have a way best to trade and make profit and this is still the analysis of opinion by some others .

[franky1]

interesting concept, but you are not picking the right numbers.. the price went upto over $1000 in 2013.. so you didnt choose the peak

secondly that high point of 2013 was a super-hype price and not a rational number to use for statistical historic price analysis, most people call it a blip or a out of pattern anomaly. and dont find it useful to include in any real analysis

but lets concentrate on the market cap question..
2009-2012, there was large coin creation = large market cap increase.
today there is less new coin creation.

meaning in 2009-2012 at 50coin a block, if we just called all bitcoins $1 each(fixed) thats $10.5mill cap
meaning in 2012-2016 at 25coin a block, if we just called all bitcoins $1 each(fixed) thats $5.25mill cap added
meaning in 2016-2020 at 12.5coin a block, if we just called all bitcoins $1 each(fixed) thats $2.625mill cap added

so if bitcoin prices were FIXED then the market cap would grow at a slower pace every 4 years.
so you wont see a cap of $31.5 after 12 years of fixed $1/btc but only $18.375, so yea the cap growth would slow down..

as for the bitcoins dollar valuation fluctuation..

well the price is not based on the buys and sells of all 15mill coins at the moment.. its based on only a few hundred thousand coins spread over only half a dozen exchanges(very small section of the whole economic transfer of bitcoin).

i see more patterns related to the lack of usage of exchanges more recently, than any other reason.

we are no longer in the wilds of fast pace day trading of thousands of coins a second with daily volumes of several hundred thousand coins.. where literally everyone was on an exchange daily..
we are now scared to use exchanges(hacks, unregistered businesses, or even KYC of registered exchanges) whatever the reason is, many people are now prefering private OTC trades which yield higher premiums, but do not account towards the publicized bitcoin valuation.
so price movements are less volatile.

here is 2 examples
bitpay got $30mill a couple years back. the investors didnt buy bitcoin on public exchanges but gave bitpay $20mill upfront and have been slowly paid back in bitcoin over time. this is a private deal that has no impact on public exchanges and also reduced bitpays reliance/need to use public exchanges now they have an external source of fiat.
another example is people in the scammy ponzi and multilevel markets "training" videos telling their subscribers to use things like changetip to buy bitcoin
https://youtu.be/k6Kj9SOy1S8?t=38m10s
in both cases these "investor" purchases of bitcoin do not have any effect on public exchanges

i think this will continue to be seen at the current overview of the bitcoin exchanges due to fears of public exchanges right now. . and would only change when big investors who love KYC use legit exchanges to buy large orders (yet to see wall street using public exchanges to make large orders)

in short dont expect 10,000% price increases over 2 years. but steadier movements both up and down with the occassional blip now and then

[European Central Bank]

Then "all of a sudden" it gets monkey hammered down by 1,300,000,000 USD volume?

huh? market cap is decided by coins actively traded, it doesn't pay any attention to the amount of them, it only settles on the immediate price.

it might have lost that much market cap with $50 million of volume. it can do that with $10 million if no one's very interested. if we had daily volume in the billions the market cap might 10-20x higher.

we could have a $1 trillion dollar market cap tomorrow if only one fraction of one bitcoin was the only available thing to buy and sell.

alts can get a $10 million dollar market cap with $1500 daily turnover.

[topiOleg]

Considering Bitcoin $1000 in 2013 was based on huge hype (and corrected a lot), today market cap values similar to the 2013 ones is a good sign.

From 50% (early 2013) to today 75% of Bitcoins mined is +50% more coins today than back then, from 75% to 100% fial supply is only +33% more coins in 2120 compared to today. So the increased number of Bitcoins in existence not going to have so much high effect on market cap anymore.

[Decoded]

interesting concept, but you are not picking the right numbers.. the price went upto over $1000 in 2013.. so you didnt choose the peak

Who decides what numbers are correct?

Even If I would have selected the peak the market cap drift from the share value is still apparent.

I gather though that you seem to feel it is because of coin supply?

I can partially buy that.

As far as the hype goes it looks like 2013 peak and 2016 spike to $800 or so were orchestrated by different groups of people.

I do also find it interesting though that when LTC spiked before halving that it went to $8 and BTC went to $800 for it's "priced in halving" moment.

Might be a useless observation but who really knows right?

What I do know is when people like Kim dotcom are exciting the community I get a bit worried.

Couple that with the drift and any longterm hopes I have for the coins survival start to fade.

I guess if you want to invest in a risky mid cap vehicle Bitcoin is the place to be.

Especially, if you like rolling your dice with the gods in heaven.

Anymore though it is starting to look like Bitcoin is the whore of babylon...

This is a decentralized system. You can't expect it to follow the same rules as a centralised one, let alone a company.

Agreed. The numbers don't really matter, not much of a difference between peak and mid.

I thought the 2016 peak was over enthusiasm for the halving, but then ending up with a price of about $800 for a coin that takes on average less than $600 to make?

[shinratensei_]

interesting concept, but you are not picking the right numbers.. the price went upto over $1000 in 2013.. so you didnt choose the peak

secondly that high point of 2013 was a super-hype price and not a rational number to use for statistical historic price analysis, most people call it a blip or a out of pattern anomaly. and dont find it useful to include in any real analysis

but lets concentrate on the market cap question..
2009-2012, there was large coin creation = large market cap increase.
today there is less new coin creation.

meaning in 2009-2012 at 50coin a block, if we just called all bitcoins $1 each(fixed) thats $10.5mill cap
meaning in 2012-2016 at 25coin a block, if we just called all bitcoins $1 each(fixed) thats $5.25mill cap added
meaning in 2016-2020 at 12.5coin a block, if we just called all bitcoins $1 each(fixed) thats $2.625mill cap added

so if bitcoin prices were FIXED then the market cap would grow at a slower pace every 4 years.
so you wont see a cap of $31.5 after 12 years of fixed $1/btc but only $18.375, so yea the cap growth would slow down..

as for the bitcoins dollar valuation fluctuation..

well the price is not based on the buys and sells of all 15mill coins at the moment.. its based on only a few hundred thousand coins spread over only half a dozen exchanges(very small section of the whole economic transfer of bitcoin).

i see more patterns related to the lack of usage of exchanges more recently, than any other reason.

we are no longer in the wilds of fast pace day trading of thousands of coins a second with daily volumes of several hundred thousand coins.. where literally everyone was on an exchange daily..
we are now scared to use exchanges(hacks, unregistered businesses, or even KYC of registered exchanges) whatever the reason is, many people are now prefering private OTC trades which yield higher premiums, but do not account towards the publicized bitcoin valuation.
so price movements are less volatile.

here is 2 examples
bitpay got $30mill a couple years back. the investors didnt buy bitcoin on public exchanges but gave bitpay $20mill upfront and have been slowly paid back in bitcoin over time. this is a private deal that has no impact on public exchanges and also reduced bitpays reliance/need to use public exchanges now they have an external source of fiat.
another example is people in the scammy ponzi and multilevel markets "training" videos telling their subscribers to use things like changetip to buy bitcoin
https://youtu.be/k6Kj9SOy1S8?t=38m10s
in both cases these "investor" purchases of bitcoin do not have any effect on public exchanges

i think this will continue to be seen at the current overview of the bitcoin exchanges due to fears of public exchanges right now. . and would only change when big investors who love KYC use legit exchanges to buy large orders (yet to see wall street using public exchanges to make large orders)

in short dont expect 10,000% price increases over 2 years. but steadier movements both up and down with the occassional blip now and then

Thank you for your explanation but I want to ask something for you, whether the block is can be empty like an example from 50 after halving become a 25 and every 4 years is be divided a half and this is in the 12.5 and next 4 years is in the 6,25 and that is possible for block to become empty? what happened if that is can happen.

[rizzlarolla]

Thank you for your explanation but I want to ask something for you, whether the block is can be empty like an example from 50 after halving become a 25 and every 4 years is be divided a half and this is in the 12.5 and next 4 years is in the 6,25 and that is possible for block to become empty? what happened if that is can happen.

When did you buy your account?
Start of May March i'm guessing.

Please post your question in the newbie/help section.

[shinratensei_]

Thank you for your explanation but I want to ask something for you, whether the block is can be empty like an example from 50 after halving become a 25 and every 4 years is be divided a half and this is in the 12.5 and next 4 years is in the 6,25 and that is possible for block to become empty? what happened if that is can happen.

When did you buy your account?
Start of May March i'm guessing.

Please post your question in the newbie/help section.

Okay, I just never wanna to know about more specific information about bitcoin especially for the block that's very complicated for me and until this time appearing intentions to learning from the basic of bitcoin especially for bitcoin block and what's wrong with this? I don't have a problem with you ,right?but I really appreciate your suggestion. thanks.