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Author Topic: this is a bubble.  (Read 7596 times)
kokjo
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March 25, 2013, 09:15:23 AM
 #1

the price can not go up by 400% in only 10 weeks, price cannot go exponential.
i don't care about the people from Cyprus, or anywhere else.
anyone who says otherwise are euphoric tards, and are gonna lose money soon.

im not saying that bitcoin is going to die, only that there is coming a major correction soon.
bitcoin will be prepared for these prices in about 1-2 years.


note: im holding ~50/50 usd and btc, at current prices. so that im ready to buy when it goes down, and so that i does not cry if the price hits 200.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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oakpacific
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March 25, 2013, 10:11:53 AM
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The price went up 700% during the 5 weeks after 10/01/2010, from 0.06 to 0.5, and it only took another 2 months for the price to keep staying above 0.5, so I guess....

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March 25, 2013, 10:15:09 AM
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When will the fear mongers stop?


Bitcoin does not care if you cannot comprehend the speed of growth.

Your strategy is quite sensible though. No one should risk more than they afford to lose.

ps: We have had people shouting bubble from the very beginning and all the way up to this point. do not panic Smiley
kokjo
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March 25, 2013, 10:16:37 AM
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The price went up 700% during the 5 weeks after 10/01/2010, from 0.06 to 0.5, and it only took another 2 months for the price to keep staying above 0.5, so I guess....
that does not count and you know it. anyone with 200$ could have done it. here we are talking about something like 600M$(rough estimate, pulled out of my ass, based on the maket cap.)

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
oakpacific
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March 25, 2013, 10:20:22 AM
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The price went up 700% during the 5 weeks after 10/01/2010, from 0.06 to 0.5, and it only took another 2 months for the price to keep staying above 0.5, so I guess....
that does not count and you know it. anyone with 200$ could have done it. here we are talking about something like 600M$(rough estimate, pulled out of my ass, based on the maket cap.)

So you are basically saying:" Once enough money pours in, it can be done."

I know it looks ridiculous(I feel seriously unsettling as well), but I doubt all those thrown down $1M-2M orders in the blink of an eye are that stupid.

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kokjo
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March 25, 2013, 10:23:15 AM
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When will the fear mongers stop?

not fear. its people like you who are pushing the price up, until you realize that you can't sell at a higher price in a reasonable timeframe.

bitcoin is the future, but not the immediate future. its still in beta.

the talk on forum is equivalent to that of june '11

(your next defend of why the price drop in '11: mtgox hack. then i say it was going to happen anyway)

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
kokjo
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March 25, 2013, 10:27:14 AM
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The price went up 700% during the 5 weeks after 10/01/2010, from 0.06 to 0.5, and it only took another 2 months for the price to keep staying above 0.5, so I guess....
that does not count and you know it. anyone with 200$ could have done it. here we are talking about something like 600M$(rough estimate, pulled out of my ass, based on the maket cap.)

So you are basically saying:" Once enough money pours in, it can be done."

I know it looks ridiculous(I feel seriously unsettling as well), but I doubt all those thrown down $1M-2M orders in the blink of an eye are that stupid.
calculated risks: they want you to think that bitcoin are going higher, and then they sell. price pumping 101.

on the other hand: my mother does not know about bitcoin yet: bitcoin is not going to 200$

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
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March 25, 2013, 10:29:48 AM
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The price went up 700% during the 5 weeks after 10/01/2010, from 0.06 to 0.5, and it only took another 2 months for the price to keep staying above 0.5, so I guess....
that does not count and you know it. anyone with 200$ could have done it. here we are talking about something like 600M$(rough estimate, pulled out of my ass, based on the maket cap.)

So you are basically saying:" Once enough money pours in, it can be done."

I know it looks ridiculous(I feel seriously unsettling as well), but I doubt all those thrown down $1M-2M orders in the blink of an eye are that stupid.
calculated risks: they want you to think that bitcoin are going higher, and then they sell. price pumping 101.

on the other hand: my mother does not know about bitcoin yet: bitcoin is not going to 200$

No, I don't think those who can spend so much in such a manner would go through all the hassles of moving their money into Gox, just to make a few hundred thousand bucks and leave it.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
Vladimir
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March 25, 2013, 10:32:45 AM
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as oakpacific said. It is not daytraders buying 1mil$ worth of BTC in one go just to dump it once macd or some goat entrails tells them to. There are folks that buying some BTC for a decade or two. They are driving this market.


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March 25, 2013, 10:45:40 AM
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as oakpacific said. It is not daytraders buying 1mil$ worth of BTC in one go just to dump it once macd or some goat entrails tells them to. There are folks that buying some BTC for a decade or two. They are driving this market.

Exactly, I think it's because many people are following a "buy and hold" strategy, or accumulating Bitcoins with every monthly paycheck and no intention to sell anytime soon.

People are realizing the long-term potential of Bitcoin now since the high from 2011 has been broken.

If this continues upwards like this then obviously at some point it must be a bubble because the amount of inflowing money probably cannot grow exponentially.

My guess is that the exponential growth of the last few weeks will soon come to an end and the price will settle somewhere between 60$-100$.

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March 25, 2013, 01:53:36 PM
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once anyone can naked short sell BTC, these bubbles will pop real quick  Wink
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March 25, 2013, 01:54:52 PM
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once anyone can naked short sell BTC, these bubbles will pop real quick  Wink

what do you mean?
get yourself a bitfinex.com account and start shorting...you only need USD

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March 25, 2013, 02:40:13 PM
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The price went up 700% during the 5 weeks after 10/01/2010, from 0.06 to 0.5, and it only took another 2 months for the price to keep staying above 0.5, so I guess....
that does not count and you know it. anyone with 200$ could have done it. here we are talking about something like 600M$(rough estimate, pulled out of my ass, based on the maket cap.)

So you are basically saying:" Once enough money pours in, it can be done."

I know it looks ridiculous(I feel seriously unsettling as well), but I doubt all those thrown down $1M-2M orders in the blink of an eye are that stupid.
calculated risks: they want you to think that bitcoin are going higher, and then they sell. price pumping 101.

on the other hand: my mother does not know about bitcoin yet: bitcoin is not going to 200$

It's good that none of us have a direct effect on the market. Smiley
Anon136
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March 25, 2013, 02:42:44 PM
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i think you are very wise to take profit if you have a significant investment. i on the other hand dont have enough invested in it to be happy taking profit yet. i will continue to wait to get rich, or not.

also if the bitcoin price crashes the excitement i will feel at the prospect of diverting other assets to take a significant position will greatly outweigh the my negative feelings about the investment i lost with my existing bitcoin position.

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March 25, 2013, 02:59:54 PM
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Have you seen the volume in recent weeks?  The ratio of price increase vs. volume is very different than back in 2011. It may very well be sustainable, depending on the thinking of these new buyers.

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March 25, 2013, 03:02:41 PM
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Have you seen the volume in recent weeks?  The ratio of price increase vs. volume is very different than back in 2011. It may very well be sustainable, depending on the thinking of these new buyers.

Exactly. I asked gribble about it:

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<chmod755> ;;eightball are we in a bubble?
<gribble> About as likely as pigs flying.
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March 25, 2013, 03:10:01 PM
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I tend to agree that the price movement is much more representative of a bubble then anything else. 

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March 25, 2013, 03:23:46 PM
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you have to understand that bitcoin does not abide by the usual laws of economics. The value could be 100 now and it is a real value because that's what people are willing to buy it for.
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March 25, 2013, 03:24:54 PM
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I like how people keep thinking of it like a stock/commodity and want to short it. LOL.
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March 25, 2013, 03:48:49 PM
 #20

Not only is it a cool way to pay and move money, this is a highly disruptive technology implementation (in a good way).  I'm not saying we're quite to that phase yet but look at, for example, how fast cell phones killed the whole must-own-a-landline (or even a car phone) concept of the 70s-90s.

Just like anything else, this is WORLDWIDE and what was the number someone threw out there once?  0.1% of the whole Internet market alone was equivalent to a coin priced into the thousands of Dollars.  $75 seems like a steal if we hit but a fraction of that.

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
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