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Author Topic: Bust Or No Bust?  (Read 1196 times)
Vandroiy
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June 12, 2011, 02:03:25 PM
 #1

We are looking at something extremely similar to past major crashes right now. Look at NASDAQ Echo and DJIA 1929, just massively accelerated. Yet, Bitcoin has the exceptional property of being small, so a massive increase in USD volume might still catch things.

In a major crash, the bubble popping is often followed by the bust; people who don't believe in the crash yet being utterly overrun by accumulating sales, and volatility ridding the market of those causing the fluctuations.

What do you think, are we about to see a bust?



(I think we will. There was too much mania, the market will now be purged of maniacs. But that's just me, maybe I'm wrong.)
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hugolp
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June 12, 2011, 02:12:51 PM
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I think its a big mistake to compare Bitcoin with stablished markets. Bitcoin is young and small, its going to be very volatile, both up and down and its going to beahve like a young market not like a big old market. Nobody should be surprised at the events of the last days and weeks.
Vandroiy
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June 12, 2011, 02:18:38 PM
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I think its a big mistake to compare Bitcoin with stablished markets. Bitcoin is young and small, its going to be very volatile, both up and down and its going to beahve like a young market not like a big old market. Nobody should be surprised at the events of the last days and weeks.

I think that is only true if Bitcoin manages to play that card. If the bursting bubble scares off a big part of the newcomers, the market is almost a closed ecosystem, and I see no reason for it to behave differently from an old market, just accelerated.

In fact, there is a difference: Bitcoin has no floor of real value to fall to, apart from the scarce coins. But they largely haven't been traded yet! There's no net that catches the price if things go bad, but easily a factor 10 down in value if a larger fraction of the coins appear to be traded for money.

Okay, I can't tell the future or anything; but it can happen!
ItsASpork
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June 12, 2011, 03:19:46 PM
 #4

Seeing as we're almost back up to 19, I'd say no bust. Damn shame I was asleep when it hit 8, I planned to buy $1000 worth if it ever dropped below 10.

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June 12, 2011, 03:23:13 PM
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Seeing as we're almost back up to 19, I'd say no bust. Damn shame I was asleep when it hit 8, I planned to buy $1000 worth if it ever dropped below 10.

The MtGox low is very slightly above $10, whoever said it hit $8 was mistaken.

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stick_theman
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June 12, 2011, 03:30:24 PM
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I think its a big mistake to compare Bitcoin with stablished markets. Bitcoin is young and small, its going to be very volatile, both up and down and its going to beahve like a young market not like a big old market. Nobody should be surprised at the events of the last days and weeks.

+1

See Bitcoins as penny stocks on steroid at this moment.  You are in for the long haul, brother.  It's a lifestyle, a commitment and a journey.
Vandroiy
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June 12, 2011, 04:24:58 PM
 #7

Seeing as we're almost back up to 19, I'd say no bust. Damn shame I was asleep when it hit 8, I planned to buy $1000 worth if it ever dropped below 10.

That is EXACTLY what happened before previous busts. The height of matches, too; it served to burn up the remaining inflow from the hype in the past.

How come everybody is so certain of this working out? Hm. Maybe I'm just too pessimistic... still, I can't rely on some general mood for my own speculation.
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June 12, 2011, 06:58:14 PM
 #8

Seeing as we're almost back up to 19, I'd say no bust. Damn shame I was asleep when it hit 8, I planned to buy $1000 worth if it ever dropped below 10.

The MtGox low is very slightly above $10, whoever said it hit $8 was mistaken.

My bad, I read the lowest number on the y axis.

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