Well i don't know about a big drop but it certainly isn't going up.
With a possibly critical mass of users having been scammed out of 30% of their btc at bitfinex you can expect them to dump and never touch bitcoin again. Believe me, they are not going to recommend btc to anyone unless they hate them. It's just waiting now for everyone to get access again to their funds. So far i can't do anything on my account, just view it.
Yep...
Bitfinex was by far the leader USD exchange, and now it's toast, and has badly burned a huge volume of Bitcoin liquidity providers, who will take their funds, and leave at the earliest viable opportunity. Some may come back in the fullness of time, many won't ever be back, at least not until Bitcoin is dominated by regulated exchanges that are fully accountable and operate under reliable jurisdictions. Free market principles and decentralisation are all well and good, but when it comes to finance, greed is the predominant ethos and greed in an unregulated environment, is a monster that nobody wants have to operate alongside.
In the short term, I could see some good volatility as Finex reopens trading and withdrawals, and the exodus via BTC and USD begins, with a huge BTC price premium opening up on Bitfinex being likely as traders for whom USD withdrawal isn't an attractive proposition, fight tooth over nail to get what they have left, off the exchange before it collapses for good. In the long term however, this is needless to say, a huge blow to the Bitcoin ecosystem. To be a viable asset, Bitcoin needs liquid exchanges. There was no western focused exchange more liquid than Bitfinex, and as for the volume on Chinese exchanges, that of it which is actually genuine and/or not inspired by 0% trading fees, a big part of Bitcoin appeal for Chinese investors is Bitcoins easy convertability into USD...well, a big part of that convertabilty has just gone 'püff'.
How any position trader can possibly interpret this Bitfinex massacre as anything but emphatically bearish, is beyond me.
I will be one of those traders who will not be back to BTC. Got my account emptied on Kraken, Kraken gave me some
sorries for your losses, my account is actually untouched on Bitfinex, and Bitfinex opt for the legally baffling decision to socialise all the losses. Tens of thousands of people who have been burned by Bitfinex, will be sitting right now wondering whatever the hell they were thinking off, having large amounts of money sitting on shadowy corrupt exchanges, answerable to know easily determinable authority and existing under no certain jurisdcition. Bitcoin has done nothing in the past 3 years, that plenty conventional stocks hasn't equaled, or bettered. Absolutely no reason why anyone looking to trade markets, needs to risk their capital in Bitcoin.
$500 is the break even price for the miners to keep on mining.
Bitcoin will likely be dipping down lower than that in due course. I shall be long gone by then, but shall be sure to get the popcorn out for the big Bitcoin miners crisis of 2017.......how much ya think Bitcoin will be worth if 36 hour delays on any transaction that doesn't stump up a a $10 fee to the miners become commonplace? (and lets face it, we have all sat sweating waiting for 3-4 hours for transactions to confirm already)
