Bitcoin Price Update for August 11, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
Bitfinex began trading again yesterday for the first time in over a week, and surprisingly the market has taken it in stride. Despite a quick selloff down to the mid-580's $ following some restart issues at Finex, the market just as quickly rebounded back up near the 600 $ level. Now we are once again pinned to the upper end of the still intact 580 - 600 $ trading range, although price did peak up through there on Bitstamp yesterday to reach a local high of 603 $. While we still think that a test of higher resistance in the 620 - 630 $ region is a possibility over the course of the next week or two, there are some technical features on the shorter term charts that are giving us pause for the time being.
Moving on to said technicals, we can see on the 6-hour chart below that despite price being in a minor uptrend, it is also forming a bearish ascending wedge pattern. These formation have been fairly accurate in the bitcoin markets over the past 6-12 months so we are giving it due credence. Additionally, we are at the top of the light blue pivot zone, Willy is overbought, RSI and MACD are trying to paint small bearish divergences, and buyside volumes have been unimpressive.
Meanwhile, SCMR is now painting some green candles despite heavy dynamic resistance overhead at 630 $, market structure is starting to turn more positive, and the A/D line is still pressing to the upside. Not only that, but the 9/18 EMA cross is now turning bullish and there is a large volume profile notch above 600 $ that will need to be filled-in in the not too distant future. Speaking of volume profile, notice that PoC is all the way up above the 200-period SMA so even if we can push through 630 $, there is more resistance waiting in the wings between 640 - 650 $.
Considering that the momentum oscillators are relatively bearish while we are nearing the apex of this ascending wedge, we think another move to the downside in the next few days is a decent possibility. The OTE long zone down around the trendline and at the top of the demand area would be our preferred spot to add to the MT ProTrade, however we are not expecting a move back down to those levels just yet. Instead, at least over the near term, we would still be buyers of a selloff in to the 530 - 550 $ range.
GLGT!
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