Bitcoin Price Update for August 17, 2016

[S3052]

Market Commentary (BTC): 

The waiting game persists as the bitcoin markets continue to compress during this slow summer trading season.  Despite the possibility that we could remain locked in the 550 - 600 $ range for a few more weeks, this newer 570 - 580 $ range will likely break sometime this week or this weekend.  While the technicals are still not all that helpful in terms of directionality, from a market makers perspective the struggle to make profit in these tight conditions is very real.  In light of this near term uncertainty we want to stay neutral and patient at current levels, although we are still in a "buy the dips, sell the rips" mentality until further notice.

Today we zoom in on the 4-hour chart below given it has been awhile since we have taken a serious look at shorter term technicals.  The first thing to notice is that we have another working symmetrical triangle on this timeframe in addition to the longer term charts, which continues to squeeze price into the current 570 - 580 $ range (and is also where volume profile PoC is and hence where near term fair value is). 

Also note that there is a new minor pivot area from 555 - 570 $ which should provide some support on dips, and SCMR is once again painting neutral/mixed candles following a few days of bullish price action earlier this week.  Finally, the OTE short zone continues to sit right overhead between 585 - 620 $ while the major OTE long zone still lies between 500 - 520 $, not to mention that volume profile leaves much to be desired, all of which is telling us that even a break of the current trading range might not catalyze a very large move this time around.

Momentum and volume are also telling a confusing story considering Willy is heading higher but is hitting centerline resistance, RSI is heading down to test the 40 level, and MACD continues to stagnate around zero.  Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross has flatlined at current prices and the 200-period SMA remains bearish, although conversely the A/D line is still healthy and trading volumes are slightly more bullish now than they were earlier in the week.  For the time being price will stay within the 570 - 580 $ range until we get a move above or below there.  Our thinking for the time being is that we could move down to test the lower triangle trendline around 560 $ before finding support once again and then attempting to move above 580 $.

All said, we remain buyers down in the 540 - 550 $ area for a shorter term scalp trade, as well as down in the 500 $ region for a longer term play.  Having said that, until there is some conviction on one side or the other, the bitcoin markets will remain stagnant in a large, extended consolidation between 450 - 700 $.  We still think an upside resolution materializes in the latter part of this year, however at this point we are relegated to sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to come to us.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-17-2016

[Ayers]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

[randy8777]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

[S3052]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

You have a good point indeed about fundamentals. That said, very often we have seen the technical picture turning bullish before fundamentals. Since we cover bitcoins in 2011, this has helped many times to be in the market before a major rally.

[amacar2]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

End of this year is very near so predicting price to be 2k within end of this year is not practical. Price need lot more time to get rebounded above 700$ again, if bitfinex wasn't hacked this month, it looked easier to reach 1k this year but now situation is changed.

[swogerino]

All these exchanges having problems or going under have caused the problem with the price just being stagnate. I am going to say the end of the year to see any real progress happening for that is the time people are going to spend and not sit on what they have.

[ivanst776]

The potential bitcoin price for the end of the years seems to be the $700 target so it's not a huge price for bitcoin.

I think that bitcoin has a greater potential to have a better price but because of the recent exchange hack bitcoin price is getting dumped.

Even though the $700 is not a bad price comparing with the current one and let's hope that the next year will be better than this.

[randy8777]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

You have a good point indeed about fundamentals. That said, very often we have seen the technical picture turning bullish before fundamentals. Since we cover bitcoins in 2011, this has helped many times to be in the market before a major rally.

do you think the roll out of the new 0.13.0 core update with the change people have been waiting for (although it won't be active yet), will change much as far as sentiment goes for the short and medium term? i personally see it as a good thing.

[Capradina]

For the future, for next year (2017) I see that the price will be above $ 800 bitcoin Because I am sure next year's growth is very high and that bitcoin makes a pretty good market movements

[noormcs5]

In the coming months, bitcoin will be go $800, and i wish it will be happened because it will be a last chance of this year to make profit. But one thing is clear no one know about future, so look only what is happening in present.

[Ayers]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

there is segwit and 2mb update coming, those update are really good, will force the price to increase, demand will increase also, because people will feel more confident in buying bitcoin

[BillyBobZorton]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

there is segwit and 2mb update coming, those update are really good, will force the price to increase, demand will increase also, because people will feel more confident in buying bitcoin

Where did you read that 2mb hard fork is coming? Segwit is coming, but afaik no 2mb increase anytime soon. We need to test segwit for a while before 2mb increase, maybe in 2017.

[richardsNY]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

there is segwit and 2mb update coming, those update are really good, will force the price to increase, demand will increase also, because people will feel more confident in buying bitcoin

Where did you read that 2mb hard fork is coming? Segwit is coming, but afaik no 2mb increase anytime soon. We need to test segwit for a while before 2mb increase, maybe in 2017.

It's will be an update with the code in it, but they won't put it to work yet. I have no idea when it will, but I hope bitcoin.org won't get hacked to mess with the installation file. I always download the latest version from there. There is even a notification on top of the page here on this forum warning us to carefully check it before installing.

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-software-version-0-13-0-segwit-code/

[angaper]

MACD, EMA, stochastic... is it really possible to make profits from technical indicators? It is nothing but superstition, a pseudo science based more in subjective speculations than in objective reasonings, and that is why only a perfect money management can give us eventual profits in the long run.

[S3052]

MACD, EMA, stochastic... is it really possible to make profits from technical indicators? It is nothing but superstition, a pseudo science based more in subjective speculations than in objective reasonings, and that is why only a perfect money management can give us eventual profits in the long run.

You are right, MACD, EMA, stochastic etc. alone do not guarantee to make profit. We at BBA incorporate dozens of hard facts like indicators but as well as a lot of special experience in the bitcoin and altcoin market that we use to successfully outperform the market massively. It's a bit like Roger Federer or Dzokovic in tennis. They have technique and tools like superrackets, but they beat robots because they have longstanding experience and "anticipate" where the ball goes..
This is what we do at BBA, we combine the experience of analysts, indicators and other things into the final forecast.

[illyiller]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

You have a good point indeed about fundamentals. That said, very often we have seen the technical picture turning bullish before fundamentals. Since we cover bitcoins in 2011, this has helped many times to be in the market before a major rally.

The thing here is, this isn't like when MT Gox went down for good. Here, Bitfinex is trying to appear as if they have recovered and will make good on their obligations. I'm not so sure. Their volume is pathetic. More than 60% of their remaining cold storage is gone. They haven't directly informed their customers (by email) so it's possible many account holders don't know. Bitfinex doesn't even know how they were compromised (admitted in their last announcement), so they are totally insecure. And the issuance of debt securities + haircut was a violation of their terms and probably illegal in many jurisdictions. So they have legal exposure to lawsuits, and perhaps even action from the USAA World Police (SEC, CFTC, FBI, etc.).

I think Bitfinex is a huge flash crash waiting to happen. Could be another hack, could be shutdown (voluntary or not) due to insolvency or US agency action or bankruptcy being brought against them in Hong Kong. It's all bad.

[S3052]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

You have a good point indeed about fundamentals. That said, very often we have seen the technical picture turning bullish before fundamentals. Since we cover bitcoins in 2011, this has helped many times to be in the market before a major rally.

The thing here is, this isn't like when MT Gox went down for good. Here, Bitfinex is trying to appear as if they have recovered and will make good on their obligations. I'm not so sure. Their volume is pathetic. More than 60% of their remaining cold storage is gone. They haven't directly informed their customers (by email) so it's possible many account holders don't know. Bitfinex doesn't even know how they were compromised (admitted in their last announcement), so they are totally insecure. And the issuance of debt securities + haircut was a violation of their terms and probably illegal in many jurisdictions. So they have legal exposure to lawsuits, and perhaps even action from the USAA World Police (SEC, CFTC, FBI, etc.).

I think Bitfinex is a huge flash crash waiting to happen. Could be another hack, could be shutdown (voluntary or not) due to insolvency or US agency action or bankruptcy being brought against them in Hong Kong. It's all bad.

You have very good points about that there are still risks with bitfinex.

That said, I still think that this won't have any mid term significant effect on bitcoin as a whole. This is because bitfinex only stads for less than 5% of global bitcoin exchange volume.

[virasog]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

There was chance of bitcoin price to rise above 1000$ but that is now seems difficult to achieve and the major cause of it is the Bitfinex Hack which led market down

[talks_cheep]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

You have a good point indeed about fundamentals. That said, very often we have seen the technical picture turning bullish before fundamentals. Since we cover bitcoins in 2011, this has helped many times to be in the market before a major rally.

The thing here is, this isn't like when MT Gox went down for good. Here, Bitfinex is trying to appear as if they have recovered and will make good on their obligations. I'm not so sure. Their volume is pathetic. More than 60% of their remaining cold storage is gone. They haven't directly informed their customers (by email) so it's possible many account holders don't know. Bitfinex doesn't even know how they were compromised (admitted in their last announcement), so they are totally insecure. And the issuance of debt securities + haircut was a violation of their terms and probably illegal in many jurisdictions. So they have legal exposure to lawsuits, and perhaps even action from the USAA World Police (SEC, CFTC, FBI, etc.).

I think Bitfinex is a huge flash crash waiting to happen. Could be another hack, could be shutdown (voluntary or not) due to insolvency or US agency action or bankruptcy being brought against them in Hong Kong. It's all bad.

The US has no jurisdiction on a Hong Kong exchange, just like it had no say in Tokyo exchange named MtGox.

I do agree Bitfinex is a disaster waiting to happen, the good news is the next incident won't have as big an impact as the last one because it's become a shadow of itself. It took almost a year for MtGox to declare bankruptcy, remember the MtGox dollars? Bitfinex seems to be following the Kapeles playbook. This time, if you're still using Bitfinex, it's on you.

[Ayers]

stagnation i call for now, until things are cleared from those bad news, then we can go as high as near 1k, and then if we can go above that we will touch 2k for sure with a new ath, i see this happening at the end of this year

bitfinex hack plays a big role as to why the market is slow and going down, that's right, but you're being too optimistic here. there is literally nothing that can justify the price to go up that much this year. even with significant manipulation i can't see the price come even close to the $2000 level. also, i can't even see the price reach $1000 this year.

there is segwit and 2mb update coming, those update are really good, will force the price to increase, demand will increase also, because people will feel more confident in buying bitcoin

Where did you read that 2mb hard fork is coming? Segwit is coming, but afaik no 2mb increase anytime soon. We need to test segwit for a while before 2mb increase, maybe in 2017.

yes they said 2017, 2017 is around the corner, not many months before it come, i'm confident that they will add 2MB soon enough to encourage adoption, they are just not ready yet