Market Commentary (BTC):
Not much to say this morning given the markets are fully in the grip of the summer doldrums. This period of extreme stagnation prompted us to go back and take a look at what happened last summer around this time, and indeed the same conditions were present then prior to an upside resolution later in the Fall. While we cannot guarantee that this same outcome will materialize again this year, we think there is a fairly good chance that something similar does occur (at least in terms of a breakout in one direction or the other). Seeing as though we are still in a slow period as far as fundamentals go, we remain primarily focused on the technicals for the time being.
We return to the 12-hour chart for another look at the medium term setup. There is no doubt the the market is currently locked in a period of indecision and uncertainty seeing as though price has been trading within the light blue pivot zone all week (only a ~25 $ range), and remains firmly in the middle of the symmetrical triangle. Also notice that SCMR has been vacillating between red and blue candles, those being bearish and upside reversal signals respectively, while dynamic resistance overhead at 600 and 630 $ both slowly loosen their grip on the market.
Moving on, we still have a minor OTE short zone sitting between 580 - 600 $ while the OTE long zone remains down around the 500 $ level, which is also still the top of the major demand area. Not only that, but price remains stuck trading around this volume profile mini-PoC that lies between two large notches, although the A/D line continues to press slowly to the upside indicating buyers remain at these levels. As far as momentum goes we are getting mixed signals as well considering Willy has pulled back nicely, RSI looks like it has bottomed near term, and MACD is poking its head above the zeroline.
Despite the possibility of a quick washout back down into support in the low to mid-500's $, where we still want to be buyers, we think the market may turn more bullish than many are expecting over the next week or two. The small but effective Adam & Eve double bottom that appears to be materializing around the 560 $ level is making us slightly more bullish than we were earlier in the week even in the face of a very murky short term technical outlook. We would not be surprised to see the action pick up slightly over the weekend as we slowly move out of the dog days of summer, and we now have a slightly more bullish bias so take that for what its worth.
GLGT
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