Bitcoin Price Update for August 19, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
Incredibly, the bitcoin price simply refuses to move from this 570 - 580 $ range as both bulls and bears get immediately spurned on any minute move in either direction. Going into what may be the slowest trading weekend of the year seasonally speaking, we are watchful but not optimistic about a breakout of this range. The lack of fundamental catalysts combined with still mixed technicals means that we must remain neutral and patient going into next week, although we do think a move out of the larger 555 - 600 $ trading area is coming in the next week or two. Until then, though, we remain on the sidelines.
Today we take another look at the 6-hour chart for the short term overview since we will be covering the medium and long term outlooks in the full report on Monday. We can see that price has truly flatlined around 570 $ which is where volume profile PoC is sitting, as are both the 9 and the 18 EMA's. Also note that SCMR is painting all neutral candles now as indecision remains prevalent, and we are lacking in dynamic support and resistance anywhere near current levels. As long as price remains within the light blue pivot area, risk/reward will continue to be unfavorable for all but the most nimble range traders who can buy the dips and sell the rips within this near term 565 - 575 $ zone.
Getting to momentum and volume, notice that Willy is moving swiftly to the upside despite little progress in terms of price, RSI continues to struggle at the centerline, and MACD remains pinned near zero. Additionally, volume profile remains very porous both above and below current prices and trading volumes continue to be anemic, although a still rising A/D line indicates that perhaps there are more buyers at these levels than meets the eye.
Finally, OTE long zone support down just below the medium term uptrend line around 500 $ continues to be our preferred reload zone, however we would still be interested in taking a shot on the long side in the 540 - 550 $ area as per our VST ProTrade. Conversely, significant SCMR dynamic resistance still hangs overhead around 630 $ so that is where we would be taking profits on any long positions.
While it may seem as though this consolidation will never end, we know from experience that just when it looks the most hopeless is when the market starts to move. We still prefer the idea that we head slightly lower out of this range first before eventually resolving to the upside, but at this point it is pretty much a waiting game until we get technical confirmation one way or the other.
Have a great weekend! GLGT!
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