How about using this to "suggest" profitable pricing of items rather than trying to make the market "behave"? Fixers invariably have this fantasy target in mind after which every new target is just a new target. They never have to admit they needed to adjust.
Difficulty goes up in less than a day. Bottom prices will rise and consolidate. Top speculation will panic and fall. This is a consistent stabilizing pattern.
Another better way to do things is to sell low price items at high traffic against the BTC and high price items at low traffic against the dollar (in BTC). I don't care if pay $13 for .5 BTC pencil. I just do not care. But I do care if I pay $80 for 5 BTC in diapers.
I always like another better way. It sounds like you have found a way to arbitrage according to the way you value things and that's fine.
It may look like enmaku is picking targets, but the thing I get about it is that he is just trying to make sense of the markets like a lot of people are, like you have found your own way to make sense of them. Not everyone is going to see things the same way thank goodness—if they did nothing would move, there would be no counter-party.
How would you frame a description of the value of Bitcoin, what data would you present, what story would you tell to communicate to people that see the world as you do, just what you think is a fair value for Bitcoin?
There is no fair value. You cannot take something that occupies space and pin it to a dimensionless point. A rock takes up volume. It is in a trillion infinitesimal coordinates corresponding to that volume.
I would focus on the moving pricing window of bitcoins. The challenge is nailing that to an abstract quantity. Like if I have a bag of coins, I'm willing to sell some of it if the price increases and willing to buy more if the price decreases, relative to what I can purchase. The analog for market price would be the two points at which I'm willing to sell the whole bag of coins or willing to double it with yet another axis of prices (velocity thereof) at which point I may be willing to increase the number of coins per bag or decrease them, and finally the acceleration at which I would be more likely to increase the amount of bags of coins in play versus decreasing.
That's the kind of trading market I would design. Using the dynamics of options in the context of actual trades.
