http://reason.com/archives/2013/03/24/how-debt-ruins-systems Nicholas Taleb: Antifragility is something that likes volatility and likes variation, likes turmoil, likes stress—up to a point. The opposite would be robust. Robust is like a rock. It doesn’t care. Diamond is perfectly robust. What is antifragile gains from disorder and may even need disorder for fuel
Certainly seems that bitcoin gains from disorder and there is plenty of fuel.
I am currently listening to this book, about 70% through.
I'm not so sure Bitcoin is antifragile yet--in the past it has been hit with Black Swan events (hacking -> loss of confidence) and the price went straight back down. The "problem" is as it makes further inroads into the mainstream, the technology and services surrounding it (hedge funds, merchant acceptance, etc) will increase the complexity of the bitcoin arena, and we will fall into the same trap as traditional markets (people calling for "protection" from fraud by--who else?
Their government). One edge it does have is that currently no government can devalue it without considerable computing power, intelligence, and organization. An
intervention from any government would only make for a huge opportunity for other governments, which might lend towards antifragility. But alas disorder from
outside bitcoin is not disorder
in the system of bitcoin itself.
That said, it is true that the software is continually improved after each bug or fork or error is found (a modicum of antifragility). But like the book says, you shouldn't confuse lack of evidence for evidence of lack. Or something like that.
Still grokking this. Taleb did an AMA the other day and only had a passing remark about Bitcoin (a government-free currency is something that is sorely needed), would love to hear his recommendations as to how to make it intrinsically antifragile.
