Taking a step back

[SlaveInDebt]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzps

[piramida]

Most definitely current super-growth will also peak out at some yet unknown value (triple digits, in my opinion), then gradually fallback to a lower level (above 32, but lower than 100), recuperate for a year or two, then a third huge wave would start, with a bottom of this year's high, whatever it will be.

As nobody can possibly predict what the current peak may be, the best possible speculation strategy still is "buy some when you can, buy lots when the price goes down".

[goxed]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzpszl

[hgmichna]

Most definitely current super-growth will also peak out at some yet unknown value (triple digits, in my opinion), then gradually fallback to a lower level (above 32, but lower than 100), recuperate for a year or two, then a third huge wave would start, with a bottom of this year's high, whatever it will be.

Certainly below $32. There is no basis for a genuine price rise to $32. Bitcoin is not used much, except for speculation.

As nobody can possibly predict what the current peak may be, the best possible speculation strategy still is "buy some when you can, buy lots when the price goes down".

You mean, sell all now, buy back not before half a year has passed and the price has stabilized. Whether it will stabilize at a single or double digit figure, nobody knows yet.

How much money do you think Wordpress or Namecheap takes in through their new bitcoin acceptance? Do you think the figures are in any reasonable relation to the current mountain of speculation money? Of course they aren't. Bitcoin is still not used much for any real economy purpose.

The price will continue to rise as long as enough new "speculators" stream into the market and part with their money. As soon as they are all in, the price will drop like a stone, too fast for practically all of them to sell at a gain. Mt.Gox will drop dead for the most part, as usual in extreme market movements.

[chrsjrcj]

Most definitely current super-growth will also peak out at some yet unknown value (triple digits, in my opinion), then gradually fallback to a lower level (above 32, but lower than 100), recuperate for a year or two, then a third huge wave would start, with a bottom of this year's high, whatever it will be.

Certainly below $32. There is no basis for a genuine price rise to $32. Bitcoin is not used much, except for speculation.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/bitpay-exceeds-2-million-in-transactions-month-to-date/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BitcoinMagazine+(Bitcoin+Magazine)

 

[Piper67]

Most definitely current super-growth will also peak out at some yet unknown value (triple digits, in my opinion), then gradually fallback to a lower level (above 32, but lower than 100), recuperate for a year or two, then a third huge wave would start, with a bottom of this year's high, whatever it will be.

Certainly below $32. There is no basis for a genuine price rise to $32. Bitcoin is not used much, except for speculation.

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/bitpay-exceeds-2-million-in-transactions-month-to-date/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BitcoinMagazine+(Bitcoin+Magazine)

 

Oh, come on, don't let the facts get in the way of a good religion. Bitcoin is useless except to buy drugs and weapons on SR and maybe to do a spot of money laundering. The real value of a BTC is between $1 and $1.5 

[zoinky]

We're going down to $5 again soon.  No one wants these stupid things.  Just in it for the paper.

[Crazy]

Oh, come on, don't let the facts get in the way of a good religion. Bitcoin is useless except to buy drugs and weapons on SR and maybe to do a spot of money laundering. The real value of a BTC is between $1 and $1.5  

Couldn't that be said of Bitcoin speculators? They think BTC is embarking on global acceptance and is going to save the world in less than a month, and for these reasons it should immediately be valued at $10000/coin.

The biggest claims to fame at this point are Wordpress (an open source CMS that most none-techies don't know or care about), and Namecheap (a niche registrar -- would be understandable if GoDaddy took BTC). Plus a handful of fly by night service providers and everyone is equating it to global acceptance.

[Piper67]

Oh, come on, don't let the facts get in the way of a good religion. Bitcoin is useless except to buy drugs and weapons on SR and maybe to do a spot of money laundering. The real value of a BTC is between $1 and $1.5 

Couldn't that be said of Bitcoin speculators? They think BTC is embarking on global acceptance and is going to save the world in less than a month, and for these reasons it should immediately be valued at $10000/coin.

Global acceptance would put each BTC at roughly 1,000,000, not 10,000.

1% of Bitcoin's potential as either a currency, a store of value or a payment processor (the three sides of the Bitcoin, so to speak), puts us easily around $10,000, so from that perspective, we're correcting upwards.

[Crazy]

Would love to see how you came to these numbers and ultimately your conclusion. Please lay that out for me with as many facts as possible because I've thus far failed to see what has caused a 500% move in valuation in less than 3 months. Burden of proof doesn't fall on me, I'm just asking for proof, everyone else is making the claim that this is all sensible movement.

[mccorvic]

Would love to see how you came to these numbers and ultimately your conclusion. Please lay that out for me with as many facts as possible because I've thus far failed to see what has caused a 500% move in valuation in less than 3 months. Burden of proof doesn't fall on me, I'm just asking for proof, everyone else is making the claim that this is all sensible movement.

I'm curious what you would consider proof.  I mean, you must not be reading the same forum I am because there is proof all over. No one will waste their time with you until you lay out what you are expecting.

[Piper67]

Would love to see how you came to these numbers and ultimately your conclusion. Please lay that out for me with as many facts as possible because I've thus far failed to see what has caused a 500% move in valuation in less than 3 months. Burden of proof doesn't fall on me, I'm just asking for proof, everyone else is making the claim that this is all sensible movement.

Actually, since a BTC is currently selling for $88.40, the burden of proof to show why that shouldn't be so very distinctly rests on you 

[BitPirate]

Exactly!

There are markets all over the world where BTC is selling right now for ~$90.

If you don't think it's worth it, the burden of proof is on YOU.

As far as I can see, the user base is expanding, and speculation:usage ratio is stable or decreasing.

[Crazy]

Would love to see how you came to these numbers and ultimately your conclusion. Please lay that out for me with as many facts as possible because I've thus far failed to see what has caused a 500% move in valuation in less than 3 months. Burden of proof doesn't fall on me, I'm just asking for proof, everyone else is making the claim that this is all sensible movement.

I'm curious what you would consider proof.  I mean, you must not be reading the same forum I am because there is proof all over. No one will waste their time with you until you lay out what you are expecting.

I'm expecting some reasonably sound metrics on a fundamental adjustment that is commanding a 500% increase in valuation. What I'm getting is statistics about reddit readership and pointing to fringe services like Wordpress, Namecheap, Reddit and Mega. Does no one have hard statistical data of new user adoption that is said to be causing this move? I haven't seen it, all I see is "look at this useless number that can indicate one of several different things, but I'm going to cherrypick the one that makes me say I can get $100 for my BTC."

As far as I can see, the user base is expanding, and speculation:usage ratio is stable or decreasing.

You say it but you don't show it, what the hell. Can I see some reporting on hard numbers? Did MtGox publish some whitepaper on this? I don't understand.

And about people saying burden of proof rests on me... so when I go and buy a vehicle, the burden of proof is on me to find out why this vehicle is worth the price tag? It's not the person suggesting a value? Keep in mind I'm not suggesting anything, I'm just asking for why this move is occurring. Now, in addition to not receiving feedback that holds water, I'm getting trolled about needing to prove why I think it shouldn't be worth $88, when I'm not even saying it shouldn't' be worth $88.

[mccorvic]

Would love to see how you came to these numbers and ultimately your conclusion. Please lay that out for me with as many facts as possible because I've thus far failed to see what has caused a 500% move in valuation in less than 3 months. Burden of proof doesn't fall on me, I'm just asking for proof, everyone else is making the claim that this is all sensible movement.

I'm curious what you would consider proof.  I mean, you must not be reading the same forum I am because there is proof all over. No one will waste their time with you until you lay out what you are expecting.

I'm expecting some reasonably sound metrics on a fundamental adjustment that is commanding a 500% increase in valuation. What I'm getting is statistics about reddit readership and pointing to fringe services like Wordpress, Namecheap, Reddit and Mega. Does no one have hard statistical data of new user adoption that is said to be causing this move? I haven't seen it, all I see is "look at this useless number that can indicate one of several different things, but I'm going to cherrypick the one that makes me say I can get $100 for my BTC."

This reads to me like "no proof will satisfy me".  You really can't get more wishy-washy and moving-goalpost prone than "some reasonably sound metrics"

[Crazy]

Well, if you can't point to anything that perhaps the community would consider a valuable indicator, I guess I'm wishy washy.

[BitPirate]

Furthermore, any chart zoomed out to years-long timescale of nascent market, will look absolutely like that -- exponential or above growth as new users flood in. The previous crash happened at a totally different point of development of Bitcoin.

BTC is not immune to crashes -- but posting a zoomed out chart does nothing to show it will crash now.

Here is a more sensible chart. It's not even log scale!



Hell, over 60 days it doesn't even look that bad!

[Piper67]

Would love to see how you came to these numbers and ultimately your conclusion. Please lay that out for me with as many facts as possible because I've thus far failed to see what has caused a 500% move in valuation in less than 3 months. Burden of proof doesn't fall on me, I'm just asking for proof, everyone else is making the claim that this is all sensible movement.

I'm curious what you would consider proof.  I mean, you must not be reading the same forum I am because there is proof all over. No one will waste their time with you until you lay out what you are expecting.

I'm expecting some reasonably sound metrics on a fundamental adjustment that is commanding a 500% increase in valuation. What I'm getting is statistics about reddit readership and pointing to fringe services like Wordpress, Namecheap, Reddit and Mega. Does no one have hard statistical data of new user adoption that is said to be causing this move? I haven't seen it, all I see is "look at this useless number that can indicate one of several different things, but I'm going to cherrypick the one that makes me say I can get $100 for my BTC."

As far as I can see, the user base is expanding, and speculation:usage ratio is stable or decreasing.

You say it but you don't show it, what the hell. Can I see some reporting on hard numbers? Did MtGox publish some whitepaper on this? I don't understand.

And about people saying burden of proof rests on me... so when I go and buy a vehicle, the burden of proof is on me to find out why this vehicle is worth the price tag? It's not the person suggesting a value? Keep in mind I'm not suggesting anything, I'm just asking for why this move is occurring. Now, in addition to not receiving feedback that holds water, I'm getting trolled about needing to prove why I think it shouldn't be worth $88, when I'm not even saying it shouldn't' be worth $88.

Ack, your comparison doesn't hold water. It would be more accurate to say you observe a transaction where both the car seller and buyer agree on a price, and after the fact you ask for a justification... well, the justification is that presumably the seller and the buyer have analysed the market and come to the conclusion that that is the right price for the car in those circumstances. Nobody is suggesting YOU should buy a single Bitcoin... but we are saying that since the price is what it is, then it is what it is, which is about the most philosophically consistent position one can take.

[Crazy]

So you focus on what you consider an ill-conceived metaphor instead of the point at issue. Clearly I won't be getting any answers which just further indicates to me that there might not be anything behind this move. Which is fine, it'll play out as it will. Appreciate the feedback guys.

[marhjan]

Well, if you can't point to anything that perhaps the community would consider a valuable indicator, I guess I'm wishy washy.

No - you're 100% correct.  The only merchants which accept btc are currently illegal (SR etc) or quasi-legal (gambling sites) or fringe tech sites (with the possible exception of WordPress.)  When Google, Amazon, EBay or even GoDaddy start to treat bitcoins with a modicum of respect perhaps the current valuation would make sense.  Until then we are in a speculation bubble - there's no saying the bubble can't goto triple or even quad digits, but it's still a bubble.

I've been (VERY) wrong about how high the price would go so far - but eventually some sort of sanity has to win out (probably..  lol)  I still think the true present value of a btc is about $8-15USD after the coming correction - time will tell.