The trouble is even if this fairly unlikely scenario of large numbers of banks starting to using Ripple came about, there is no direct correlation between the use of Ripple IOUs for things like USD transfers and XRP having any significant value.
For XRP to justify even its current price let along a significant rise, it would need to be used as a market making currency for lots of trades (eg Euro > XRP > USD) but I really don't see that happening when people can just create direct exchange markets (eg Euro > USD) and reduce their costs and risks.
Good point, what's the business model of Ripple?
How will the tokens become valuable?
The business model of Ripple?
I think the original intent was to organize all payment/settlement rails into a singular nexus.
Thus the model was that central banker, where all banking rails intersect.
Great vision in 2012, but in 2016, the 'Alt' exchange houses themselves can handle this function. Better yet the 2.0 Dex platforms.
This makes the Ripple vision, obsolete, even with their regulator participation, the centralized inhouse market making can not compete with the open market.
Ripple is looking for plan B, likely as a stable fiat pegged asset, then they can float out all their premine.
The market will likely not evaluate the NAV much above the $200M basis range, because there is no significant value (revenue potential) given the average volume traded is under $1M. And there are at least a dozen 'much less premined' more 'decentralized' assets trading well ahead of XRP.
The question is has any bank ever used XRP as an international wire?