Just another crash discussion

[BitPirate]

BTW, while I can't fault your conclusion: "no-one knows", I think it can be disengenuous to compare graphs of the crash with today's situation. They are only similar on the surface ("they are kindof the same shape").

However the Bitcoin ecosystem is in a totally different state of development now. I am NOT saying that BTC is immune to another crash, but that crashes are caused by specific sets of circumstances. Those circumstances aren't to do with graph shapes.

That said, I did reduce my exposure by about 50%; but that's more just to get through the weekend... long term I'm pretty bullish.

[Aozora21]

Its really difficult to judge what will happen because there isnt another market quite like it.. makes it exciting and scary at the same time.. especially for someone who jumped on board late.

[Crazy]

That said, I did reduce my exposure by about 50%; but that's more just to get through the weekend... long term I'm pretty bullish.

You owe me a new monitor and can of soda.

[chrsjrcj]

I don't see how anyone can say this isn't a bubble. Nothing new has occurred since $40-50, not a thing. Except, of course, hype and media attention. But that's about as meaningful as a fart in the wind.

Which I guess is relative depending on whether you're upwind or downwind.

Bitcoin adoption is the goal, but when we acquire new members it's bad? We'll probably shake off some weak hands on the way up (and see some drops in the exchange rate), but as more people buy bitcoins, more merchandisers will have an incentive to accept them. That is the plan, right? Or is this going to be some pseudo internet currency that is a nerds only club?

[yuvadm]

Extra thoughts

If we are in a bubble and it were to crash right now, and follow the same pattern as the '11 crash. It would stop at around $50.

Interesting point. Definitely something to ponder.

Also, this. All charts show $40-$50 as the probable crash site.

[phantastisch]

Wait , since when is the possibility off the table that the bitcoin accepting Services are growing and that the Price is NOT ONLY driven by announcements. Additionally you need to get the thought in your Head that a Bitcoins Price is determined by for how much YOU want to sell it. Bubble or not ,  get your emotions out of your coins and stop analyzing every single bag of fallen rice in bitcoinland or cent fluctuation.

[Crazy]

Bitcoin adoption is the goal, but when we acquire new members it's bad? We'll probably shake off some weak hands on the way up (and see some drops in the exchange rate), but as more people buy bitcoins, more merchandisers will have an incentive to accept them. That is the plan, right? Or is this going to be some pseudo internet currency that is a nerds only club?

When we acquire new members that speculate based on get rich quick theory, and then early adopters hoarding so they can cash in on the influx of speculators, yeah, that's bad.

[siggy]

What does that intersection mean? Might be a bubble & not a bubble & at peak of bubble = ?

It means Satoshi is the real life reincarnation of schrodinger's cat.

Sigg

[yokosan]

Extra thoughts

If we are in a bubble and it were to crash right now, and follow the same pattern as the '11 crash. It would stop at around $50.

Interesting point. Definitely something to ponder.

First of all.... stop comparing 2011 with today. TOTALLY DIFFERENT AND IRRELEVANT!
Second. We are not in a bubble, there will be corrections, there are no questions about that. But you won't see bitcoin at $50 or less never again unless there's a major flaw in the protocol, quantum computers show up, or any other catastrophe of that nature .
I have no intentions of discussing this. Whatever you say to disqualify these statements will be wrong.

Quoting this now so it can be brought back up in a couple of months time.

[BitPirate]

That said, I did reduce my exposure by about 50%; but that's more just to get through the weekend... long term I'm pretty bullish.

You owe me a new monitor and can of soda.

If you think balancing risk over time is hilarious, you might want to quit dispensing advice in the speculation forum.  I think there's a risk of a correction over the long weekend, and I plan to buy back in at the bottom -- or at a marginally higher price if not. Either way, a bit of sideways movement will be good for the market.

[netrin]

Do yourself a favour and look at a log chart to compare geometrically. If you'd like to compare June 2011 to 2013, you'd have to look at exponentials (doubling). A nominal rise of $5 per day is a yawn in 2013, while $5 per day in 2011 made several people liquidate their homes and sell their grandmothers.

What was fascinating in 2011 were gains of roughly 50x in two months. Whereas it has taken well over 15 months to gain 50x since 2012. Bitcoin has only appreciated 5x in the past two months. Very different: 50x versus 5x. Use a log chart and this is immediately and visibly obvious.

[ErisDiscordia]

The area where the three circles intersect and where yokosan put the Bitcoin is Schrodingers bubble territory. It is and yet it is not a bubble and continues to exist in an indeterminate state until the observer observes it. And the observer is of course Satoshi and because nobody knows who Satoshi is, there is no observer and we shall never know if we are in a bubble or not.

[deadweasel]

The area where the three circles intersect and where yokosan put the Bitcoin is Schrodingers bubble territory. It is and yet it is not a bubble and continues to exist in an indeterminate state until the observer observes it. And the observer is of course Satoshi and because nobody knows who Satoshi is, there is no observer and we shall never know if we are in a bubble or not.

It's really quite beautiful.

[OnlyGoodVibes]

Further proof that the best way to troll on the internet is to use an unsuitable format for data visualization 

[jubalix]

This is why you hedge into alt coins about 1/4 or 1/5 of BTC total

so you don't care about bubbles/crashes any more

ok you may have less BTC in the end, but maybe not, and you very may well have more.

if it does have a crash...then alts will go up, covert half or alts to BTC and then wait.

repeats.

later when BTC UP concert half of you gained BTC back to alt

repeat.

Lets look at some charts.

The first chart is going to be a 2 month chart with a 12 hour time period that shows the rise and fall of the '11 crash.

The second chart is going to be the last 2 months with a 12 hour time period.



The million Bitcoin question is: Are we in a speculative bubble?

Now for some possible answers.

We are in a bubble

Look at the fucking graphs. You have got to admit they look very similar.

Dragonfly doji, indecision forming... a storm is brewing.

No, we are not in a bubble

There is nowhere near as much uncertainty about the price this time. It's a lot more stable. Also the user base is much stronger now. More services than ever are using Bitcoin.

The real answer

Who knows.



Extra thoughts

If we are in a bubble and it were to crash right now, and follow the same pattern as the '11 crash. It would stop at around $50.