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Market Commentary (BTC):
Despite still being trapped within the 565 - 585 $ area, price is slowly moving up to the top of that range as expected. While follow through on this move has been anemic, we think price action will pick up if the 580 $ resistance level can be broken on decent volume. We say this due to some emerging technical signals on the medium term chart, as well as the fact that Bitcoin Core 0.13.1 (which will contain SegWit code) is now over 30% complete. Even though we are still in the final days of the summer doldrums, we think this combination of positive technicals and fundamentals could give the market some juice to the upside. To find out where we might be heading, lets turn to the 12-hour chart below.
We can see that price remains firmly within the symmetrical triangle, as well as the pivot area, and is sitting right on top of the volume profile PoC. Also note that SCMR painted a confirmed upside reversal yesterday, the first since June, and despite no new dynamic support yet we can see dynamic resistance slowly weakening over time. Additionally, market structure is starting to come in slightly more bullish and the Vix is indicating that an increase in volatility is likely nearing, therefore we think a move up into the volume profile notch around 600 $ is a possibility over the next week or so.
Having said that, we still have mixed signals coming from momentum and volume which is why we are not ready to call a breakout rally imminent just yet. Notice that Willy is heading back to the downside despite the possible reversal in price, RSI has not been able to break above the 50-line, and the 9/18 EMA cross remains flat for the time being. We can also see that MACD has finally jumped over the zeroline although without much fanfare, while the A/D line continues to slowly press to the upside. While we think a move higher is more likely than not, we don't think it will be very large in magnitude considering the mixed oscillators as well as the heavy resistance overhead in the form of SCMR, OTE, volume profile, and the 200-period SMA. Getting through 630 $ will still be a very tall task for the bulls, but 600 $ is a more realistic possibility.
Overall we continue to slowly move into the bullish camp given we now have a short term risk/reward profile that we can live with, which is why the new VST ProTrade was issued. Despite this tempered positivity, unless price can breakout of the larger triangle that we remain in between 540 - 630 $ then the market will stay in this sideways consolidation, albeit with a bit more volatility, going into September. We are still hopeful that we get another shot to add to longs down in our buy zones, but for now this small long scalp will have to do.
Thanks! AKWAnalytics and S3052
