Bitcoin Price Update for August 31, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
Although things were looking pretty good yesterday for near term bulls, the market once again turned south following a tag of the 580 $ resistance area. Now price is sitting back down in the 570 - 575 $ area where it has felt so comfortable for over a month. We are not expecting any action in the market until later in the weekend going into early next week, therefore we remain neutral on a market that is stagnant and indecisive at current levels. We will continue to remain patient overall given a still mixed bag of technicals and some waiting time until the next fundamental catalyst (Bitcoin Core 0.13.1), however we are willing to hold our small VST ProTrade long for the time being.
Today we revisit the 6-hour chart for a look at the short to medium term prospects. We can see that price remains flat within the pivot area, and also continue to hug volume profile PoC, while market structure vacillates between bullish and bearish. Also note that trading volumes remain anemic and volume profile looks relatively thin on either side of the current trading range, however the A/D line is still slowly pressing to the upside so it appears as though there are still buyers around current levels. Additionally, SCMR continue to paint mixed signals as we had a potential upside reversal that was cancelled a few bars later, but now we have a re-confirmation of the reversal although there has been no follow-through in price action yet.
Moving on to momentum we can see that the near term EMA's are almost completely flat, the 200-period SMA is still bearish, and PPO is close to signaling slightly overbought conditions despite practically no movement to the upside so far this week. Finally, we can see that Willy and RSI both failed to push sustainably above their respective centerlines, while MACD continues to dance around it's zeroline as well. None of these indications are all that encouraging, at least not from a near term perspective, so for now we are expecting more of the same until we get closer to the holiday weekend.
Considering how tight the market is coiling right now, and has been for some time, we think that when a break of the symmetrical triangle/consolidation range materializes it will send some shockwaves of volatility through the market. The key levels to watch are now 540 $ on the downside and 630 $ on the upside, so keep an eye out for a break of one of these levels over the next few weeks. A break lower would likely take us down into the MT ProTrade add zone just below 500 $, while a breakout higher would likely send prices up to more significant resistance in the form of the OTE short zone around 700 $. For the time being, however, we continue to sit on the sidelines in order to wait for more favorable setups.
GLGT!
https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-31-2016
