Bitcoin Price Update for September 6, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
And, we're back! After some long overdue and much needed time off, we return with renewed invigoration and conviction regarding our recent forecasts. Despite a continuation of the absence of fundamental catalysts, the technicals proved to be enough to spark a breakout from the previous 565 - 585 $ trading range as expected. Now with price sitting just above 600 $ but just below the still intact symmetrical triangle, we stand at a critical juncture with regard to where we might be headed over the course of the next few weeks. So, without further ado, let's take a look at the daily chart below for a classic medium term view of the current state of the market.
We can see that indeed price is now near the upper bound of the triangle consolidation that the market has been stuck in for almost three months, which means that multiple resistance areas exist right overhead in the form of the pivot area and the downtrend line. Also notice that SCMR is still painting some dynamic resistance around the key 630 $ level, although we finally have new support at 565 $ along with green candles and a myriad of reversal signals. Additionally, we have some decent market structure to work with following a small Adam & Eve double bottom in the 560's $, and we continue to watch a still intact Elliot Wave ABC correction.
Moving on to momentum and volume we can see that Willy and RSI are now firmly in uptrends despite rapidly approaching overbought territory, MACD is picking up some steam above the zeroline, and PPO is now neutral but trending higher. Not only that, but the near term EMA's have crossed over bullishly and the 200-day SMA has held as support while continuing to press higher, signaling we are still in a bull market. Finally, volume is not as bullish as the other indications considering that there remain multiple large volume profile notches both above and below that market that could use some work, not to mention exchange volumes remain anemic, however the A/D line continues to indicate that buyers are still outpacing sellers even at these levels.
From a longer term perspective bitcoin remains in a wide consolidation range between 450 - 700 $ as players continue to position for the next substantial move. While our call for a rally up to resistance going into this week was the right one, we also realize that there could be some minor downside from here if we stick to our roadmap from last week. One final downside washout back to support at the bottom of the triangle between 550 - 570 $ would allow us to jump back in once again for what we think will be at least a test of 630 $. This would also recharge the momentum oscillators which would greatly increase the chances of moving above 630 $ once we are able to get there. At this point, there just might not be enough left in the bulls' tanks to push through such heavy resistance on the first try.
To sum up, we are staying generally bullish but near term cautious. Dips can continue to be bought, and now that we have confirmation of upside bias we can put a little more juice in these trades than we have been for the past several weeks. Things should be getting exciting again soon in Bitcoinland (at long last!).
GLGT!
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