Bitcoin Price Update for September 8, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
Another leg of the rally has taken price into the 620 - 630 $ resistance range at the top of the current symmetrical triangle formation. This indeed confirms our upside bias but also reinforces the idea that the market needs at least a quick breather before making moves up into the mid to high 600's $. The bulls have been fairly strong so far, which means we are not looking for a big move to the downside in the immediate future, but we still think that a test of the 580 - 600 $ region would be healthy and regenerative for a market that is currently stretched from a technical perspective.
Moving on to said technicals, we can see on the 12-hour chart below that price is now butting up against some serious resistance in the form of the descending triangle trendline, the 200- period SMA, heavy SCMR dynamic resistance, and a large volume profile notch. Also notice that momentum is now highly overbought on this timeframe as well (in addition to the 6-hour chart we showed yesterday) with Willy and RSI officially there, while MACD struggles to find any juice above the zeroline. All of these indication are concerning from a nearer term perspective, however it's not all bad news for the bulls over a slightly longer timeframe.
First of all, the A/D line remains in a slow and steady uptrend, a sign that some serious accumulation is and has been going on for quite some time below 700 $. Additionally, SCMR is painting bright green candles meaning price action still favors the bulls, and pattern-wise it looks even more likely that the Elliot Wave ABC correction has played out which would mean that the lows are in for this mini-consolidation cycle. Finally, volume seems to be confirming upside bias as well considering yesterday we saw an encouraging small volume breakout on total exchange volume. This tells us that global interest in the bitcoin market is reemerging following what has been a historically slow summer for price action.
It should be clear that we remain medium to long term bullish on bitcoin with the expectation of a breakout to the upside above 700 $ by the end of this year at the latest. Despite the need for a pullback over the near term in order to recharge the oscillators and put in a cleaner double bottom, we would be unequivocal buyers of that dip in order to pad our MT ProTrade position off of the 480 $ level which we are still holding. We think this is the beginning of another exciting period for the still dominant cryptocurrency, although a bit more patience is required before getting too bulled up just yet.
GLGT!
https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-8-2016
