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Author Topic: FACT CHECK: Bitcoin Blockchain will be 700GB in 4 Years  (Read 9008 times)
coins101
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October 28, 2016, 09:32:40 AM
 #161

What are the chances of never increasing the block size beyond 1mb? Is it a case of when, not if? and is the when, more likely to be sooner rather than later?

Will we see a negotiations on increasing the 1mb size cap in order for segwit to see the light of day?

Segwit IS an increase of the blocksize cap, it increases to 4MB.

Surely it means that Segwit will free the blocks enough that it would allow, in paper,  4mb worth of transactions? Please explain more if I got it wrong. Because if it really increases the blocks to 4mb each then that would also need a hard fork, right?

Forgive me for the stupid question. My first impression of Segwit was that they would remove data from the blocks to fit in more transactions allowed in each block with no increase in the block size necessary.

It's basically an accounting trick.

When you sign a bitcoin transaction you need to use both your public and private key to prove ownership. You can't let the world know your private key. So the signing process hides your private key. This hiding of your private key process creates a lot of data, relative to the other data used when you make a transaction.

Segwit, basically, removes your signing information into another data table once your transaction is signed and accepted into the blockchain as a valid transaction.

Table 1 = data necessary to validate blocks and maintain the integrity of the blockchain. This includes data that gets counted within the 1mb block size.

Table 2 = your removed signature validation data. This does not get included in the data count when looking at the 1mb block size.

So given the main question in the OP, accepting segwit soft fork will basically mean the blockchain now allows more transaction data to be included in the 1mb block cap, but with the 'discarded' signing data now also forming part of the overall blockchain data size.

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October 28, 2016, 12:28:13 PM
 #162

Except the signatures won't be discarded by default, or at least I don't believe so.

And it will take time for all 4MB to get filled up: the original 1MB will hold the transaction data only, but the extra 3MB can only be used for signatures. Lightning settlement transactions are the type of transaction that will be balanced to the signature-heavy extreme such that the whole 3MB gets filled up.

With the way we use the blockchain today, Segwit will supposedly fill the whole 1MB in the original transactions block, and 700kB (out of 3MB) in the signatures block. So it'll be the equivalent of having 1.7MB of transactions & signatures in the traditional style of blocks that we're doing today. It'll take a bit more evolution in peoples habits using the software (and development/growth time for 2nd layers like Lightning) to fill up the 4MB total.

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October 30, 2016, 07:56:55 AM
 #163

It'll take a bit more evolution in peoples habits using the software (and development/growth time for 2nd layers like Lightning) to fill up the 4MB total.
If you take a look at some testnet blockchain explorers, you will encounter a few different types of blocks. In general, the heavier the multisignature usage is, the closer will the *block size* reach 4 MB. However, a whole different story will be *told* if Bitcoin Core upgrades to Schnorr signatures (where multisignature style transactions would be of similar or equal size to standard transactions).

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October 30, 2016, 05:36:29 PM
 #164

It'll take a bit more evolution in peoples habits using the software (and development/growth time for 2nd layers like Lightning) to fill up the 4MB total.
If you take a look at some testnet blockchain explorers, you will encounter a few different types of blocks. In general, the heavier the multisignature usage is, the closer will the *block size* reach 4 MB. However, a whole different story will be *told* if Bitcoin Core upgrades to Schnorr signatures (where multisignature style transactions would be of similar or equal size to standard transactions).

Ah, the ratio between the tx block and the signature block has to reflect the average signature size, hence all the "block weight" language used to describe the signature block structure. So the ratio gets a little tighter if we drop ECDSA for Schnorr sigs. Cool, the transaction data should get prioritised in the ratio if it can be done right (and Schnorr has other benefits over ECDSA also). Is the Schnorr scheme not relatively new though?

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October 30, 2016, 06:16:19 PM
 #165

Would it not be possible to buy a harddrive with the blockchain already on it?
Downloading 700GB P2P, I guess that would take weeks or even months.
Every package sent around the globe usually is faster.
In 4 years, a 700 GB USB stick will be a normal thing.

1TB usb is currently around $600. Plus, loading fees, plus delivery, plus taxes, lets say its around $400 $300 delivered to your door in 4 years. Would you buy one?

Don't forget that monthly bandwidth cost.

Ok, let's say we put it on a ssd. You get a 1TB ssd today for about 200$. In four years maybe 50$.
If you can spare somebody from downloading the blockchain for weeks, I can imagine that there are people who give you 150$ for it. In four years.
I really think that could work.
Do you have another opinion?
I expect competition would bring it down 75 or less plus shipping.

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October 30, 2016, 07:10:27 PM
 #166

Since posting the OP, the blockchain has gone from



~81GB, to ~88GB

So, a little over my monthly growth prediction, but it grew by 5% between end of Sept and end of Oct.

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October 30, 2016, 07:22:00 PM
 #167

Ah, the ratio between the tx block and the signature block has to reflect the average signature size, hence all the "block weight" language used to describe the signature block structure.
Correct. The expected 1.7 MB is based on the current real world usage (primarily P2SH). r/btc recently tried to spread FUD that for 1.7MB worth of transactions, Segwit requires 4 MB of data (which is wrong on so many levels).

So the ratio gets a little tighter if we drop ECDSA for Schnorr sigs.
Not just a 'little tighter'. Multisignature size after Schnorr will be trivial in comparison to the current one, we are talking about much smaller size or the same size as a 1-of-1 (this depends on whether you want to know who signed messages).

Is the Schnorr scheme not relatively new though?
Kind-of, but it's the *gold standard* of digital signing algorithms.

So, a little over my monthly growth prediction, but it grew by 5% between end of Sept and end of Oct.
You should definitely keep historical data, so that we can compare with 2017 (with 'after-Segwit data').

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October 31, 2016, 04:39:45 PM
 #168

My 4% to 5% guestimate was based off some data.

If segwit gets accepted by miners, no reason why it shouldn't, we'll have to wait for 1-3 months to see evidence of the impact on blockchain growth.

Any predictions?  For example, will the growth rate remain at 4-5% or move up to 5-8%, or something else?

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October 31, 2016, 06:36:10 PM
 #169

It won't grow exponentially people..
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October 31, 2016, 09:55:41 PM
 #170

Surely it means that Segwit will free the blocks enough that it would allow, in paper,  4mb worth of transactions? Please explain more if I got it wrong. Because if it really increases the blocks to 4mb each then that would also need a hard fork, right?

Forgive me for the stupid question. My first impression of Segwit was that they would remove data from the blocks to fit in more transactions allowed in each block with no increase in the block size necessary.

nope. generally the switch of the signatures allow 1.6x-2x capacity depending on number of sigs of a multisig address or multi-input vs single input.
this is done by splitting the tx data from the signatures
1mb base (tx data) 3mb witness(signatures)=4mb total potential weight

the "witness" part (3mb) which brings cores total weight to 4m wont be utilised fully straight away, but will be used later to allow new features such as confidential payment codes where the weight area can store this payment code as extra data outside the base block and inside the witness area.

thus, lets say we have ~2500 tx a block today for 1mb. (traditional transactions)
the average scaling proposed is 4500tx if everyone was to move funds and use only segwit style transactions..
4500tx:~1.8mb weight (tx data=1mb base... signatures=~0.8mb witness = ~1.8mb weight used)

but that leave the witness area capacity with (2.2mb) spare for other later uses like scrambling sensitive data for privacy.(confidential payment codes)
making about 4500tx+CFP:4mb if fully utilising the weight (base and witness area) for other such features.

however if we were to accept 4mb of data was no longer "bandwidth heavy" now that core have stopped the bandwidth heavy doomsday debate we could have had 5000tx:2mb(traditional).. or 10,000tx:4mb(traditional)

but instead the best average we can hope for is
4500tx:2mb in 2017 and 4500tx+CPF:4mb in 2018

unless we go for 2mb base 2mb witness=4mb weight - yes this means segwit still gets to be used for all the segwit fanboys
meaning we can have 9000tx using segwit but not having confidential payment codes

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November 02, 2016, 12:06:11 AM
 #171

It won't grow exponentially people..

THIS
It's linear, not exponential

My 4% to 5% guestimate was based off some data.

If segwit gets accepted by miners, no reason why it shouldn't, we'll have to wait for 1-3 months to see evidence of the impact on blockchain growth.

Any predictions?  For example, will the growth rate remain at 4-5% or move up to 5-8%, or something else?

you can also fit a quadratic function to your graph
but it's capped by a linear function
segwit may change the slope, but still linear

my prediction: your 5% will start to decrease asymptotically towards 0%


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November 02, 2016, 03:49:07 AM
 #172

ill just leave this here

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November 02, 2016, 04:33:28 AM
 #173

Would it not be possible to buy a harddrive with the blockchain already on it?
Downloading 700GB P2P, I guess that would take weeks or even months.
Every package sent around the globe usually is faster.
In 4 years, a 700 GB USB stick will be a normal thing.

you must still be on dial up or something

700GB can be downloaded in less than a day on 4G Connection (80mb)

it would only take 9 hours to download 700GB today on a 200mb connection (fibre)
(which are available in certain developing countries already for $50/month)

you might want to look at:
http://www.download-time.com/

700GB in 4 years will be nothing in most countries
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November 02, 2016, 06:49:36 AM
 #174

Downloading 700GB P2P, I guess that would take weeks or even months.
No. Please do not post when you don't know what you're talking about. The bottleneck currently is not, and is likely not going to be the download speed.

it would only take 9 hours to download 700GB today on a 200mb connection (fibre)
You're assuming that the 8 nodes that you're connected to can provide you with a full speed download at all times for that speed. As mentioned above, the bottleneck is going to be the validation time.



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November 02, 2016, 06:55:24 AM
 #175

Do you still need to validate blocks when you use a bootstrap?
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November 02, 2016, 06:58:08 AM
 #176

Quantum Computers are advancing much faster in calc and storage capacity. In 4 years from now, QCs will have cracked the blockchain, and Bitcoin will be gone, or at least, residing on a QC.

Cool

Why will bitcoin be gone? Won't there be a new way we can revive or keep it going? That worries me what you said now lol. So what will happen then? We just kind of got started.

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Lauda
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November 02, 2016, 07:01:27 AM
 #177

Do you still need to validate blocks when you use a bootstrap?
This has been obsolete with the introduction of faster-synchronization. in 0.10.0. It will be slowed than using the client.

Why will bitcoin be gone? Won't there be a new way we can revive or keep it going? That worries me what you said now lol. So what will happen then? We just kind of got started.
Ignore that guy and his FUD, he doesn't know what he's talking about. Once Bitcoin moves away from ECDSA it should be quantum proof for the foreseeable future.

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marleybobthedog
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November 02, 2016, 07:03:28 AM
 #178

According to you current rate is 4% monthly so this 4% would definitely increase to 6 to 9% monthly because adoption of bitcoin is taking very fast now a days. All these 7 years from 2009 to 2016 Hutton was in dark but now only people are recognising its value so it's adoption will definitely affect in its monthly growth rate.
David Walters
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November 02, 2016, 07:05:01 AM
 #179

Do you still need to validate blocks when you use a bootstrap?
This has been obsolete with the introduction of faster-synchronization. in 0.10.0. It will be slowed than using the client.

I see, i'm used to bootstrapping old altcoins, didn't know this. thanks.
Lauda
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November 02, 2016, 07:07:05 AM
 #180

According to you current rate is 4% monthly so this 4% would definitely increase to 6 to 9% monthly because adoption of bitcoin is taking very fast now a days.
False. Blocks are already primarily full on average, thus there is no additional space to jump by 50-100% in terms of blockchain growth regardless of adoption. If you were talking about Segwit, which I'm sure that you're not, then it would be an entirely different story.

All these 7 years from 2009 to 2016 Hutton was in dark but now only people are recognising its value so it's adoption will definitely affect in its monthly growth rate.
This has nothing to do with the subject. Go (signature) spam somewhere else.

I see, i'm used to bootstrapping old altcoins, didn't know this. thanks.
They are usually based on outdated Bitcoin Core versions (most newer coins are as well). You can read about the change here.

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