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Author Topic: FACT CHECK: Bitcoin Blockchain will be 700GB in 4 Years  (Read 8996 times)
HabBear
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September 10, 2016, 05:46:18 PM
 #21

Quantum Computers are advancing much faster in calc and storage capacity. In 4 years from now, QCs will have cracked the blockchain, and Bitcoin will be gone, or at least, residing on a QC.

Cool

PHEW!

Seriously though, is the fork still an option? I've been away from the topic for a while. Thanks.

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September 10, 2016, 06:16:37 PM
 #22

If you can spare somebody from downloading the blockchain for weeks, I can imagine that there are people who give you 150$ for it. In four years.
I really think that could work.

there's currently zero incentive to run a node. who's gonna pay dollars for a hard disk containing the blockchain on top of that? i guess there might be a tiny hard core but other than that people are gonna say 'screw it' and let someone else deal with it. that's how it is with a manageable size right now. when it gets really big it's not likely to improve.

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Dite1989
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September 10, 2016, 07:10:17 PM
 #23

I too investigated some graphs about this topic and according to my research I think the size will be about 700 GB in 4 years. Maybe not 700 exactly, but somewhere around that. I agree with your sight there. I look forward to checking this fact when the time comes

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September 10, 2016, 07:21:29 PM
 #24

ok some basic maths
at todays 1mb blocks = 52gb maximum bloat potential.
so far no year has even got close to 52gb growth per year alone.

but lets pretend the next 4 years are at full capacity
1mb blocks x4 years = 208gb maximum bloat potential(+ 7 years historic data = ~290gb)
2mb blocks x4 years = 416gb maximum bloat potential(+ 7 years historic data = ~498gb)
4mb blocks x4 years = 832gb maximum bloat potential(+ 7 years historic data = ~914gb)

so there you have it.
in 4 years time the MAXIMUM bloat the blockchain can be is 914gb, which is fact
yet the reality of actual data can be anything between/below, which is speculation

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September 10, 2016, 07:32:14 PM
 #25

That's not a problem for the end user. Most of us can afford to buy a 2 TB to 5 TB hard disk , the conventional one and not the SSD, as SSD is much more expensive. After 4 years will not be a problem keeping bitcoin core wallet which contains the full blockchain but the main problem with be the bandwidth it will use per month. This cost will surely grow. But there is hope, if bitcoin price is like 10.000 USD after 4 years (not highly possible but possible) a lot of us here will be very happy back then.
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September 10, 2016, 07:44:44 PM
 #26



This guy is seeing around 600GiB in bandwidth over 30 days.

So, lets say the blockchain is 10x today in 4 years time, would the bandwidth be 10x 600GiB?  What about if we see user growth from 1-3 million going up to 3-6 million?

https://statoshi.info/dashboard/db/bandwidth-usage

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September 10, 2016, 08:00:31 PM
 #27

Quantum Computers are advancing much faster in calc and storage capacity. In 4 years from now, QCs will have cracked the blockchain, and Bitcoin will be gone, or at least, residing on a QC.

Cool

Wrong.

You could have been right though, if you were aware of some mathematical facts:



What we do know is that internet speed is advancing at a rate nowhere close to the rate the Blockchain is growing, I hope people have prepared for themselves some real life hobbies, especially since downloading the Blockchain will become a long process (taking a couple of weeks), andBitcointalk.org will experience more DDoS attacks.

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September 10, 2016, 08:11:16 PM
 #28

Quantum Computers are advancing much faster in calc and storage capacity. In 4 years from now, QCs will have cracked the blockchain, and Bitcoin will be gone, or at least, residing on a QC.

Cool

Wrong.

You could have been right though, if you were aware of some mathematical facts:



What we do know is that internet speed is advancing at a rate nowhere close to the rate the Blockchain is growing, I hope people have prepared for themselves some real life hobbies, especially since downloading the Blockchain will become a long process (taking a couple of weeks), andBitcointalk.org will experience more DDoS attacks.


We have underestimated quantum computers in a big way.


Quantum Computing – Artificial Intelligence Is Here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqN_2jDVbOU



Or watch the extended version at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=By56IOSZ7KY.


Cool
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September 10, 2016, 08:18:47 PM
 #29

It means absolutely nothing. In 4 years, the average computer will have 2 Tb at disposal and cheap SSDs will be the 240 Go ones. Data storage is where things go really fast.

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September 10, 2016, 08:37:06 PM
 #30


Wrong.

You could have been right though, if you were aware of some mathematical facts:

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FfYFBsqp.jpg&t=568&c=eyDijE3i8fSqag

What we do know is that internet speed is advancing at a rate nowhere close to the rate the Blockchain is growing, I hope people have prepared for themselves some real life hobbies, especially since downloading the Blockchain will become a long process (taking a couple of weeks), andBitcointalk.org will experience more DDoS attacks.

Re the info-graphic.

Even though that info-graphic is widely circulated on these forums, unfortunately it is wrong. Bitcoin only has 160 bits of security. The private key is 256 bits, but we are only using a 160 bit hash for the bitcoin address. So there are many many private keys associated with the same bitcoin address.

160 bits of security is still a lot (and due to the hashing, we know of no Quantum Computing algorithm that can crack bitcoin even if they had the computing power), but it is not strictly true that thermodynamics puts a limit on cracking bitcoin as is said on the info-graphic.
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September 10, 2016, 08:38:06 PM
 #31

Quantum Computers are advancing much faster in calc and storage capacity. In 4 years from now, QCs will have cracked the blockchain, and Bitcoin will be gone, or at least, residing on a QC.

Cool

Wrong.

You could have been right though, if you were aware of some mathematical facts:



What we do know is that internet speed is advancing at a rate nowhere close to the rate the Blockchain is growing, I hope people have prepared for themselves some real life hobbies, especially since downloading the Blockchain will become a long process (taking a couple of weeks), andBitcointalk.org will experience more DDoS attacks.


We have underestimated quantum computers in a big way.

I agree with that, but we're not there yet.

It means absolutely nothing.

I disagree, internet speeds will never be able to cope with maintaining a 1 TB download to a duration of less than a week. This is not even counting the daily synchronizations necessary for spending/receiving coins. It could be a couple of Gigabytes for all we know.

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September 10, 2016, 08:42:51 PM
 #32

That is insight information because I knew that .dat file for the bitcoin core was around 45 gigs at the time I was using it but that is coming to a terabyte of information.
That is massive. But there must be a way to compile it to make it smaller. Undecided

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September 10, 2016, 08:45:47 PM
 #33

Quantum Computers are advancing much faster in calc and storage capacity. In 4 years from now, QCs will have cracked the blockchain, and Bitcoin will be gone, or at least, residing on a QC.

Cool

Wrong.

You could have been right though, if you were aware of some mathematical facts:



What we do know is that internet speed is advancing at a rate nowhere close to the rate the Blockchain is growing, I hope people have prepared for themselves some real life hobbies, especially since downloading the Blockchain will become a long process (taking a couple of weeks), andBitcointalk.org will experience more DDoS attacks.


We have underestimated quantum computers in a big way.

I agree with that, but we're not there yet.

It means absolutely nothing.

I disagree, internet speeds will never be able to cope with maintaining a 1 TB download to a duration of less than a week. This is not even counting the daily synchronizations necessary for spending/receiving coins. It could be a couple of Gigabytes for all we know.

Except for one thing. As the video showed, quantum computers act in such an entirely different way that there is no way to compare them with regular PCs. Certainly, if they can touch other universes, they might be able to find all the pieces of the blockchain elsewhere, other than the blockchain right here. then, all that they need do is bring that info home to Mommy.

Cool
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September 10, 2016, 09:29:57 PM
 #34


Except for one thing. As the video showed, quantum computers act in such an entirely different way that there is no way to compare them with regular PCs. Certainly, if they can touch other universes, they might be able to find all the pieces of the blockchain elsewhere, other than the blockchain right here. then, all that they need do is bring that info home to Mommy.

Cool

Look up post quantum cryptography.
You can start here:

http://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/ir/2016/NIST.IR.8105.pdf


About transmission speed look up quantum teleportation and data transmission.

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September 10, 2016, 09:36:53 PM
 #35


Except for one thing. As the video showed, quantum computers act in such an entirely different way that there is no way to compare them with regular PCs. Certainly, if they can touch other universes, they might be able to find all the pieces of the blockchain elsewhere, other than the blockchain right here. then, all that they need do is bring that info home to Mommy.

Cool

Look up post quantum cryptography.
You can start here:

http://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/ir/2016/NIST.IR.8105.pdf


About transmission speed look up quantum teleportation and data transmission.


Hey! Thanks for the link. I think I have seen it before. So have all the developers of quantum computers. That's why government authorizes stuff like this, and why developers go way beyond it.

Cool
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September 10, 2016, 09:49:13 PM
 #36


Except for one thing. As the video showed, quantum computers act in such an entirely different way that there is no way to compare them with regular PCs. Certainly, if they can touch other universes, they might be able to find all the pieces of the blockchain elsewhere, other than the blockchain right here. then, all that they need do is bring that info home to Mommy.

Cool

Look up post quantum cryptography.
You can start here:

http://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/ir/2016/NIST.IR.8105.pdf


About transmission speed look up quantum teleportation and data transmission.


Hey! Thanks for the link. I think I have seen it before. So have all the developers of quantum computers. That's why government authorizes stuff like this, and why developers go way beyond it.

Cool

Since you like links so much, here is mine:

https://micahflee.com/2013/01/no-really-the-nsa-cant-break-your-crypto/

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btvGainer
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September 10, 2016, 10:55:26 PM
 #37

Moore's Law.

I believe the devs are working on the size of the blockchain, but it's not at the top of their list, and rightly so. They have bigger matters which require their more immediate attention.

You're correct to point out the growing size of the blockchain, but it's a relatively small problem amongst others.

100TB to 1,000TB bandwidth requirement for full nodes in just 4 years time is not a small problem. Who has a data plan that can allow that, even unlimited plans have a fair use cap?

There is very little the devs can do about the growing size of the blockchain. Data is data.

Multi sig, for example, will counter any voodoo by the devs to reduce the size of transactions.

Can we have something like cloud storage or something to compress blockchain?Like we have file compressors can we have blockchain compressors as well?

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September 10, 2016, 11:16:11 PM
 #38

Moore's Law.

I believe the devs are working on the size of the blockchain, but it's not at the top of their list, and rightly so. They have bigger matters which require their more immediate attention.

You're correct to point out the growing size of the blockchain, but it's a relatively small problem amongst others.

100TB to 1,000TB bandwidth requirement for full nodes in just 4 years time is not a small problem. Who has a data plan that can allow that, even unlimited plans have a fair use cap?

There is very little the devs can do about the growing size of the blockchain. Data is data.

Multi sig, for example, will counter any voodoo by the devs to reduce the size of transactions.

Can we have something like cloud storage or something to compress blockchain?Like we have file compressors can we have blockchain compressors as well?


I'm pretty sure that cloud storage could lead to an easier data compromise, so for privacy reasons, I don't think they'll ever implement that

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BADecker
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September 11, 2016, 03:53:24 AM
 #39


Except for one thing. As the video showed, quantum computers act in such an entirely different way that there is no way to compare them with regular PCs. Certainly, if they can touch other universes, they might be able to find all the pieces of the blockchain elsewhere, other than the blockchain right here. then, all that they need do is bring that info home to Mommy.

Cool

Look up post quantum cryptography.
You can start here:

http://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/ir/2016/NIST.IR.8105.pdf


About transmission speed look up quantum teleportation and data transmission.


Hey! Thanks for the link. I think I have seen it before. So have all the developers of quantum computers. That's why government authorizes stuff like this, and why developers go way beyond it.

Cool

Since you like links so much, here is mine:

https://micahflee.com/2013/01/no-really-the-nsa-cant-break-your-crypto/

The NSA may not be able to break Bitcoin quite yet, but this video courtesy of SulmaINO (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1578776.msg16209756#msg16209756) shows that they will be able soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhHMJCUmq28

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September 11, 2016, 08:16:08 AM
 #40

Quantum Computers are advancing much faster in calc and storage capacity. In 4 years from now, QCs will have cracked the blockchain, and Bitcoin will be gone, or at least, residing on a QC.

Cool

Its true that quantum computers are advancing fast but as far as i know until 2020 bitcoin is quantum computers resistant

They won't tell you when it's working.

but let us be realistic here. if you QC can crack the blockchain, then it can also crack other places with much more money involved. and if you want money you do not go for bitcoin, since an attack for a big sum will be noticed and bitcoin will probably become worthless. so the only reason to do this would be to destroy bitcoin.

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