Future of Bitcoin

[ripper234]

A friend of mine asked me where I think Bitcoin is headed.
I am planning to give a talk about this on the next Israeli Bitcoin Meetup, so I thought I might start gathering my thoughts on a new thread anyway.

TL;DR of the future I believe in, with high probability:

1. Governments keeps pulling shit off like the Cyprus bank crisis.
2. More and more people, wealthy and mid class, learn about Bitcoin and its "promise of salvation from banks". They will not all understand its depth, but they will see more people they trust turn to Bitcoin, and thus will turn to Bitcoin.
3. Eventually it won't be considered a risky investment, but rather a sensible part of every portfolio.
4. Infrastructure will get a lot better, including core Bitcoin and other layers on top of it such as [http://ripple.com/]Ripple[/url].
5. Every major business accepts Bitcoins.
6. Large financial bodies will start insuring Bitcoin companies ... people would be able to deposit BTC in a "bank", and not worry about hakers (like they don't worry much about hackers today).
7. Eventually (this might take 20-30 years), Fiat will just fade away. Future generations won't understand why we even needed so many currencies to begin with. Bitcoin will become the global currency.

The details might turn out a bit different (e.g. the winning currency might not be just Bitcoin, but some combination of Bitcoin and an alt, or perhaps just an alt) ... perhaps something entirely new will come and change (improve) things so much that Bitcoin will only be considered a stepping stone towards that new thing. But the gist will be the same.

[Chet]

I don't think step 6 is going far. There isn't any good reason to put BTC in a bank. Once people start treating BTC like current fiat and using banks that loan it back out with 'fractional reserves' we will have accomplished nothing.

Insured accounts? haha bank accounts in fiat are 'insured' now.

[yuvadm]

I'm missing the local part of the story.
Clearly Bitcoin is not ready for small ad-hoc purchases (such as a visit to the market).
What do you think will complement that aspect of local trade?

[yocko06]

Bitcoin will be finding its feet over the next 12 months. I know of a few massive things being built for bitcoin ATM that will bring in millions of users. I cant say anything now because i don't want to give the idea's away before they are up and running.
I see bitcoin hitting the $1000. mark in the not to distant future.

[boscorocks]

Bitcoin will be finding its feet over the next 12 months. I know of a few massive things being built for bitcoin ATM that will bring in millions of users. I cant say anything now because i don't want to give the idea's away before they are up and running.
I see bitcoin hitting the $1000. mark in the not to distant future.

I think the Bitcoin ATM is the turning-point technology. In my opinion the biggest hurdle for mainstream use is the steps needed in obtaining bitcoin in the first place.

[ripper234]

I don't think step 6 is going far. There isn't any good reason to put BTC in a bank. Once people start treating BTC like current fiat and using banks that loan it back out with 'fractional reserves' we will have accomplished nothing.

Insured accounts? haha bank accounts in fiat are 'insured' now.

Current solution aren't good enough for "Gavin's mom".
Gavin mom will need to use a bank. A more transparent and competitive bank, but a bank.

I'm missing the local part of the story.
Clearly Bitcoin is not ready for small ad-hoc purchases (such as a visit to the market).
What do you think will complement that aspect of local trade?

Physical bitcoins / printed currency backed by Bitcoin.
Governments can hold BTC in their vaults and issue paper money, and act as a 1:1 or 1:X reserve system.
Like money was backed by Gold once, it will be backed by Bitcoin.

In the future electronic systems will be more prevalent and this will not be any issue.

Bitcoin will be finding its feet over the next 12 months. I know of a few massive things being built for bitcoin ATM that will bring in millions of users. I cant say anything now because i don't want to give the idea's away before they are up and running.
I see bitcoin hitting the $1000. mark in the not to distant future.

+1. $1000 in 2013-2014.

[ripper234]

I think the Bitcoin ATM is the turning-point technology. In my opinion the biggest hurdle for mainstream use is the steps needed in obtaining bitcoin in the first place.

I think it's a powerful combo of dozens of different things, the ATM is a key player but not the only one or most important one IMHO.

[yocko06]

Bitcoin will be finding its feet over the next 12 months. I know of a few massive things being built for bitcoin ATM that will bring in millions of users. I cant say anything now because i don't want to give the idea's away before they are up and running.
I see bitcoin hitting the $1000. mark in the not to distant future.

I think the Bitcoin ATM is the turning-point technology. In my opinion the biggest hurdle for mainstream use is the steps needed in obtaining bitcoin in the first place.

I ment at the moment sorry for the confusion. but year your right the atm is a massive step.

[BTC Books]

I'm missing the local part of the story.
Clearly Bitcoin is not ready for small ad-hoc purchases (such as a visit to the market).
What do you think will complement that aspect of local trade?

Try here:

https://www.bridgewalkerapp.com/

In Japan they just wave their phone at stuff and they've bought it.  That'll be world-wide pretty soon.  And Bridgewalker makes that happen right now in bitcoin, for anyone with an android phone.

[herzmeister]

7. Eventually (this might take 20-30 years), Fiat will just fade away. Future generations won't understand why we even needed so many currencies to begin with. Bitcoin will become the global currency.

"So many currencies" (i.e. complementary regional currencies) do make sense, even in a Bitcoin world. See Prof Bernard Lietaer's work about it.

[CurbsideProphet]

The future of Bitcoin is with all of us who are still, despite the price rise, early adopters.  That being said, Bitcoin won't get to where everyone wants it to go by sitting on our hands and staring at the ticker screen.  If everyone did that, rather than investing in improving the infrastructure or increasing the amount of products/services available, we wouldn't get very far.  Better to be the casino than the gambler. 

[Zomdifros]

A friend of mine asked me where I think Bitcoin is headed.
I am planning to give a talk about this on the next Israeli Bitcoin Meetup, so I thought I might start gathering my thoughts on a new thread anyway.

TL;DR of the future I believe in, with high probability:

1. Governments keeps pulling shit off like the Cyprus bank crisis.
2. More and more people, wealthy and mid class, learn about Bitcoin and its "promise of salvation from banks". They will not all understand its depth, but they will see more people they trust turn to Bitcoin, and thus will turn to Bitcoin.
3. Eventually it won't be considered a risky investment, but rather a sensible part of every portfolio.
4. Infrastructure will get a lot better, including core Bitcoin and other layers on top of it such as [http://ripple.com/]Ripple[/url].
5. Every major business accepts Bitcoins.
6. Large financial bodies will start insuring Bitcoin companies ... people would be able to deposit BTC in a "bank", and not worry about hakers (like they don't worry much about hackers today).
7. Eventually (this might take 20-30 years), Fiat will just fade away. Future generations won't understand why we even needed so many currencies to begin with. Bitcoin will become the global currency.

The details might turn out a bit different (e.g. the winning currency might not be just Bitcoin, but some combination of Bitcoin and an alt, or perhaps just an alt) ... perhaps something entirely new will come and change (improve) things so much that Bitcoin will only be considered a stepping stone towards that new thing. But the gist will be the same.

I agree with you on most points. I think a very important step for Bitcoin to take is to acquire a solid legal framework so institutional investors are able to join the party. The role of the Bitcoin Foundation is crucial in this aspect. Once this framework is implemented, all bets are off and Bitcoin will be gaining immense traction.

I doubt that an alternative currency will ever be able to surpass Bitcoin, due to the network effect. There might be some layers build on top of Bitcoin, but the Blockchain will remain.

[bg002h]

I'm working with someone in Ghana to develop a transatlantic Business course in Entrepreneurship for students in Ghana and the USA, and I advise my students down here in South Florida to consider Bitcoin in their business plans, especially those that involve international trade with the Caribbean and Latin America.

+1000. Coolest teacher of the year award.

[WikileaksDude]

Bitcoin will become the global currency.

I agree, but I see the outcome as pitch black reality, not pink unicorn dreamworld.

I second this.

[yolo2222]

When migrant workers work out that their families back home can receive remittances on smartphones for the princely sum of $0 going to Western Union or Moneygram, expect to see a multitude of BTC 10.00 payments in the Unconfirmed queue at blockchain.info.

I'm working with someone in Ghana to develop a transatlantic Business course in Entrepreneurship for students in Ghana and the USA, and I advise my students down here in South Florida to consider Bitcoin in their business plans, especially those that involve international trade with the Caribbean and Latin America.

Very intersting ! +1

I love Ghana, especially cape coast or the timber market in accra.

As far as I am concerned some Nigerians are already using bitcoins!

[franky1]

avoid mentioning step 6.....

thats then making people think that bitcoin will become a government fiat.

instead say people will keep their bitcoins on them, whether its on a laptop memory stick, a piece of paper or a smartphone. and there is no yearly interest made from bankers 'borrowing' your money overnight. but the yearly interest is just the value increase for just hoarding the coins.

there maybe services where you can put in pocket money amounts to convert to fiat or use as escrow to instant payments that are PRE-confirmed before being spent at starbucks etc but long term storage should stay with the owner.

as this is the whole point of bitcoins.. no centralisation.

[Melbustus]

I don't think step 6 is going far. There isn't any good reason to put BTC in a bank. Once people start treating BTC like current fiat and using banks that loan it back out with 'fractional reserves' we will have accomplished nothing.

Insured accounts? haha bank accounts in fiat are 'insured' now.

A few points:
1) Some people won't want to handle their own BTC. They'll be worried about how to properly secure it, etc.
2) Services to insure those people's balances against a hack/theft/whatever make sense.
3) Fractional reserve can happen, but not like today. With no ultimate backstop of a "lender of last resort" that can simply issue new money, people will not tolerate the levels of leverage that exist in our current fiat system (eg, people will get scared sooner, so banks won't leverage as much, else they'll face a run). Thus, even if/when fractional reserve banking happens with bitcoin, it will not grow to the egregious size we have today.

[alexeft]

6. Large financial bodies will start insuring Bitcoin companies ... people would be able to deposit BTC in a "bank", and not worry about hakers (like they don't worry much about hackers today).

No banks, thank you. They are not needed anyways!!!

[bithobo]

No banks, thank you. They are not needed anyways!!!

Why not? Currently, banks are a necessity. But if all the transaction power is given to the people, banks will became what they should have been in the first place: A service. Mainly for people who are willing to pay a small fraction of money to have their other money kept in safety. Let's face it, being your own bank is risky

[bg002h]

No banks, thank you. They are not needed anyways!!!

Why not? Currently, banks are a necessity. But if all the transaction power is given to the people, banks will became what they should have been in the first place: A service. Mainly for people who are willing to pay a small fraction of money to have their other money kept in safety. Let's face it, being your own bank is risky

why is being your own bank risky? Can you not take care of your own finances? Sorry I dont understand you point.

Many computers get infected with malware. Most computers don't have cash that you can make a copy of either though. It doesn't take much thought or effort to find examples of decidedly not dumb people losing Bitcoin. Bitcoin will redefine "bank," not eliminate them.