Bitcoin Price Update for September 12, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
As expected, the market indeed took a leg lower over the weekend following what was a feeble attempt to break sustainably above the 630 $ resistance level on volume. Clearly the market is trading primarily according to technicals considering this latest failure at a key confluence area, not to mention the fact that the dump yesterday was catalyzed by price action and not fundamentals or news. In light of this, we want to make sure we take advantage of the opportunities presented by a market that is in tune with the charts, which is why we have entered the VST ProTrade and are waiting with fresh capital in case price makes one final leg lower into our 570 - 580 $ buy zone.
Moving on to the currently all important technicals we can see on the 12-hour chart below that the symmetrical triangle remains firmly intact, particularly now that we have another touch point on the descending trendline. Also notice that the breakout failure materialized right around the 200-period SMA, as well as at strong historical SCMR dynamic resistance, both of which will continue to be trouble spots for bulls on the way out of this larger consolidation range. Having said that, we do have multiple areas of relatively new SCMR dynamic support just below the market and it is still painting green candles despite the weekend breakdown below 600 $.
As far as momentum and volume are concerned, Willy is now coming down slightly out of officially overbought territory, RSI is testing its centerline, MACD has rolled over below zero, and the 9/18 EMA cross is close to turning bearish once again. Conversely, volume remains fairly healthy considering that the A/D line is still steadily climbing to the upside, trading volumes are picking up, and price is in a wide volume profile notch that has been needing some attention for quite some time. A basic recharge of momentum along with volume signs that buyers remain at these levels are likely all the bulls need to give the 620 - 630 $ area another go in our opinion, hence the VST ProTrade.
Overall we remain medium to long term bullish on this market which is why we want to continue to buy the dips, however we also think that downside technical pressure will have a significant influence on near term price action. A move down to test SCMR dynamic support, volume profile PoC, the ascending triangle trendline, and short term OTE long zone all in our 570 - 580 $ buy area seems reasonable. Having said that, we are still staying long off of the sub-600 $ levels we saw yesterday in case the bulls decide they've had enough suppression. Optimally we can take this VST PT off on a relatively small bounce from here in order to prepare to back up the truck on a move down into the sweet spot around 575 $.
GLGT!
https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-12-2016
