jasonjm (OP)
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March 30, 2013, 03:35:39 PM |
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by my calculations there has been about $40 to $50 million ordered in mining Equipment that is now supposedly going to come online.
pretty much 99% of those miners will try to recoup their investment immediately.
can the bitcoin market handle sustained selling of that magnitude for months on end?
that assumes that every single holder of bitcoins who sees the price stop moving up decides to hold bitcoins, rather than taking profit, which does not seem realistic - all 11 million coins!
lets assume 95% are "believers", and 5% are speculators - which is nonsense, I would guess up to 50% are speculators, but lets say 5%. that means 500 000 coins approx need to be sold if the price stops moving up. That is $50 million, plus $50 million in miners recouping their money, for a total of $100 million, at minimum - assuming bitcoin has the strength to hover at around $100 per coin.
Has anyone considered the current bitcoin price increase has more to do with miners technology switch than anything else? think about it, we are at a generational change in mining tech, no one is buying GPUs and cashing out, because ASIC is the next thing. So at the moment there are no miners attempting to recover their money just yet as the ASIC wave has yet to hit. So right now the miners are actually exerting the opposite of a downforce on the market, because none are cashing out as the new equipment has not arrive yet, but more importantly some ASIC makers such as AVALON are requiring payment in bitcoins. they sold 1000 units at approx 100 bitcoins each, which means a demand for 100 000 bitcoins all in a few days.
Mark this post, mock this post, if you believe in bitcoin and want to buy in, you will get a much much better opportunity before this year is out.
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