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September 16, 2016, 04:00:38 PM |
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Bitcoin Price Update for September 16, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
Bitcoin is still within a few pennies of what the price was when we issued our update yesterday, which is pretty incredible considering OKCoin futures settlement occurred overnight last night. Despite some choppy volatility in those specific futures markets, the other major exchanges took everything in stride to remain within the tight 605 - 610 $ range. While this may not seem like a big deal as a singular event it does add to the growing pile of evidence that this market is preparing for a move, a move to the upside in our opinion. Both the technicals and fundamentals a aligning going into this fall which will be a recipe for some big moves over the coming months.
Today we take a look at the daily chart for a look at the medium term setup going into the weekend trade. We can see that price remains in the symmetrical triangle, and is still flatlining just above the bottom of the pivot zone. Also notice that we are stuck between the 9 and the 18 EMA's, the 200 SMA continues to trend higher, and price is currently still in a volume profile notch area that could use more exploration. These mixed signals are showing indecision and a lack of conviction on either side of the market so we don't think we are ready for a breakout just yet, although we also don't think it is too far off considering momentum is recharging with little to no reaction in price.
Getting to said momentum, we can see on the oscillators that there is still some work to be done to the downside, however they are awfully close to testing support at their respective centerlines. Willy and RSI are staying fairly flat in the upper half while MACD has already crossed over its zeroline, and PPO is showing some slightly overbought conditions although they are dwindling as we speak. Additionally, SCMR is still painting neutral candles, new dynamic support and resistance are nowhere to be found, and the A/D line continues to press to the upside despite lackluster exchange volumes and price action over the course of this week.
For the time being the market doesn't seem to be giving us any immediate clues that a dump is imminent which is why we are holding strong in the VST ProTrade. Despite tightening our official stoploss level just a tad, we still think there is a pretty good chance of a retest of the 620 - 630 $ area over the weekend prior to a failure move to the downside into our ST buy zone. On that note, we also think there is a possibility that we see a move down into the MT PT zone between 480 - 500 $, but we are not counting on it at this point.
Having said that, we think the odds are much more in favor of a spike tag of the 570 - 580 $ area that gets bought up quickly, rather than another grind lower into medium term support. Price action should be interesting and revealing early next week which is why we will issuing a full BBB report on Monday.
GLGT & Have a great weekend!
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