This upcoming week will be big. Big in terms of new user and dynamic. Big in terms of new popular press. Big in terms of government comment and infiltration. Not trying to sate the obvious here.
I see a price increase to 50 by Wednesday. Then, a ten point decline or more as people cash out.
Price will increase as demand by existing BTC traders increases in anticipation for the new Dwolla account approvals and increased demand. We already see this (20-24 movement). Then, new BTC users will flood in, driving up the price to 50. We will see resistance at 50 as many cash out. Think about the nature of the number 50 and the feelings it inspires.
The flood will come Tuesday and continue Wednesday. Think about this....how do you short the BTC against the dollar? The average user has no clue. The built in deflation is complemented by the inability to short the BTC. The price will rise.
My concern is stability paving the way for actual acceptance of BTC in the marketplace. The system will not be stable until every potential BTC user has heard of BTC and the full "potential demand".
How can you make the BTC as good and quick as cash? When a merchant accepts BTC can he or she instantly cash out through Mt. Gox? Are most merchants holding their BTC right now or converting it straight to cash?
Merchants out there, please share your BTC strategy and concerns for stability of the currency.