How much division of labour will unravel

[blogospheroid]

EDIT - Wrongly posted.

The present world relies on a certain division of labour and that is dependent upon a present set of spending patterns, some of which are reliant on continuous money growth and many which are not. The depression that results from a monetary shock is an undisputed phenomenon.

A monetary re-standardization is a monetary shock in which one currency loses value and another rapidly gains. During the time that monetary re-standardization occurs, no new business that seeks to pay dividend in the new standard, will be really viable except money printing, which in the case of bitcoin is mining.

The question I would like to ask the forum is how much do you think that the present division of labour will unravel, until it reaches a new bottom and picks up (slowly) after that?

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[Realpra]

Well most of that sounds like more nonsensical words made up by economists.

But I guess the worker division called "bankers" will disappear..

[blogospheroid]

Hmm.. I'm not absolutely certain that bankers would be the only ones to go.

Let me explain.

Most corporate investments are done with the idea of earning money, paying dividends to the shareholders. Now, present stock prices are way out of whack with what dividends are given out. Similarly, real estate prices are way out of whack with the rent that is obtained. Now if bitcoin catches up and is threatening to become a notable world currency. (Monetary re-standardization is the change of the money standard). Then most people will simply not be able to pay dividends in bitcoin unless and until they were in the business of money printing themselves.

Prices of almost all assets being held for their future value will drop as they can pay only in a rapidly depreciating fiat.
Human attention is one of the scarcest resource in capitalism. Entrepreneurs who see this coming will realise that they are better off shutting some enterprises because the attention they pay to it is simply not worth it.

The reverse wealth effect will lead to many enterprises shutting down and entire specialisations vanishing. The only counter to this could be the new bitcoin wealthy spending an amount good enough to equalise the lost revenue. That is highly doubtful, as the bitcoin wealthy will themselves not be sure of till when will this unraveling continue.

[Adrian-x]

If a finite currency idea ever takes off its going to fundamentally change the world,  I'd go as far as saying only the essentials food, some basics and art wont unravel. It will look like life today was a bubble and it will unravel until the expansionist monastery policy, encouraged mal-investment unravels.

[blogospheroid]

That is an extreme answer, Adrian. Thanks for that. I was wondering whether I was the only person with this idea. Apparently you're even more extreme than me.

Other than infrastructure (needed for bitcoin itself), I would add some medicine also. No one would want to lose modern medicine. The bitcoin rich should make efforts to keep modern medicine alive.

[Adrian-x]

I think there are lots of basics that won't unravel, technology won't disappear or be lost, just the technology vanguards will change.
Our suburbs and cities, food distribution infrastructure, our dependence on natural recourses are inappropriately designed for an indefinite sustained way of life, this will change and the change will be devastating to some.

Thinking of medical, medicine will be a calling, you will be a doctor because you want to help people; the thought of not fulfilling your calling because someone can't pay will be absurd (this ideal existed just 2 generations ago)

The bottom line is human effort will be steered to dealing with fulfilling needs. (ones needs during inflation will change during deflation, in my mind people will find more focused meaning and pulpous in life.) 

[benjamindees]

I would consider that velocity is at historic lows in the US at least.  Depending on how long the transition takes, the impact could be minimal.