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Author Topic: Obviously unstable market state  (Read 1514 times)
Vandroiy
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June 13, 2011, 11:59:13 AM
 #1

I know you all have seen enough of these threads, but aren't some people trying to make things look to simple? Nobody is concerned? Uptrend, all good?

We just had clear proof that there are people who don't buy below 11 USD, but buy above 24, just as long as they're doing both in-trend! Please let this fact sink in for a second! This is pure insanity! "Defies sound economic practices" is really an understatement on what happened these last days.



Something is majorly messed up with this "market state", and the past fluctuations do not suffice to remove the root of the problem. Now don't tell me some magical manipulator managed to over-sell every sane person in the world. There is something wrong here, and it's not a minor fluctuation, nor did its (admittedly insanely high) volume suffice to clean up against future trouble.

I firmly believe there is a major disturbance ahead. Maybe it won't start this very moment, maybe it will -- but if it happens later, the chaos will scale up with the market size. Whichever case, unless a majority starts applying more sophisticated models, there is no way to avoid it now.
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bitcoinconnection
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June 13, 2011, 12:20:31 PM
 #2

You have some very good points. I think there is a pull between people who are looking for BTC to go higher and the other who will sell into a rally. I guess we will see who is the smarter.






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June 13, 2011, 12:28:52 PM
 #3

IMO, you are putting out a big effort without mentioning the obvious. The market went from under 1 to over 31 in a pretty short time. Did you actually expect a stable market state once a over-due correction started?

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June 13, 2011, 12:33:40 PM
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Your not dealing with the NYSE here.

If you like my post please feel free to give me some positive rep https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=18639
Tip me BTC: 1FBmoYijXVizfYk25CpiN8Eds9J6YiRDaX
Vandroiy
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June 13, 2011, 12:35:39 PM
 #5

IMO, you are putting out a big effort without mentioning the obvious. The market went from under 1 to over 31 in a pretty short time. Did you actually expect a stable market state once a over-due correction started?

No, I didn't. But if this keeps mirroring the NASDAQ Echo crash, I'll be shaking my head at those throwing their money away.

Also, there's a long way between "stable" and "People changing their mind on a factor 2 scale on a daily basis". I've never seen such a thing before.
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June 13, 2011, 12:50:35 PM
 #6

IMO, you are putting out a big effort without mentioning the obvious. The market went from under 1 to over 31 in a pretty short time. Did you actually expect a stable market state once a over-due correction started?

No, I didn't. But if this keeps mirroring the NASDAQ Echo crash, I'll be shaking my head at those throwing their money away.

Also, there's a long way between "stable" and "People changing their mind on a factor 2 scale on a daily basis". I've never seen such a thing before.

Yes, it is extreme and it's also an exciting distraction which can get in the way of building up the BTC economy.

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June 13, 2011, 01:07:10 PM
 #7

Whose fault is it, if kids panic and just look for the lowest possible price to get rid of their little 0.2BTC's they gained in a few weeks of cpu mining.

They have only themselves to blame if they sell at 10 bucks and cry to mommy after it's back to 22 the next day.

Really, it's this simple: Stop being cowards if you don't want to experience losses.
Stop pushing the price lower and lower in your desperate attempt to get rid of all your btc as you think the world is about to collapse and btc will come to an end.

Then again, more power to you if you continue to do so. You are doubling the money of speculators in steady intervals.
Many people will be thanking you after you continue selling your BTC at $11-$13 week after week..

By all means, do F5 bitcoincharts.com every 20 seconds and sell everything when it notches down a dollar.

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DeiBellum
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June 13, 2011, 02:35:53 PM
 #8

As I keep telling people who are complaining about the market sweeping up and down wildly...

"This market is too young, and too full of inexperienced and financially (stock wise) retarded people, to be able to say anything about the future of btc"

I have noticed that most people are only looking about 1" in front of their face when trading btc instead of the long run.

If you like what I have posted please donate Smiley
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Bimmerhead
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June 13, 2011, 02:43:49 PM
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We just had clear proof that there are people who don't buy below 11 USD, but buy above 24, just as long as they're doing both in-trend! Please let this fact sink in for a second! This is pure insanity! "Defies sound economic practices" is really an understatement on what happened these last days.


That depends on your timeframe.  Last week at some points it made sense to buy above 24.  If somebody didn't buy below 11 because their analysis indicated it was going to 7, then they acted rationally there as well.

This price fluctuation is only relevant to short term speculators.  If you believe bitcoin is the way of the future then why would you care about day to day price changes?

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June 13, 2011, 02:55:06 PM
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We just had clear proof that there are people who don't buy below 11 USD, but buy above 24, just as long as they're doing both in-trend! Please let this fact sink in for a second! This is pure insanity! "Defies sound economic practices" is really an understatement on what happened these last days.


That depends on your timeframe.  Last week at some points it made sense to buy above 24.  If somebody didn't buy below 11 because their analysis indicated it was going to 7, then they acted rationally there as well.

This price fluctuation is only relevant to short term speculators.  If you believe bitcoin is the way of the future then why would you care about day to day price changes?

My projections put it a lot higher in the coming months.  This correction actually brought the BTC price back in line with my projections.

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June 13, 2011, 03:02:06 PM
 #11

It is my understanding that most "booms" happen due to injection of easy credit into the market, causing an unsustainable bubble. Those talking about a "crash" of bitcoins are not taking into consideration that there are no fancy financial instruments at play here, for the most part it is strictly cash and coins and not credit.  It's still possible that a correction is in order, but i dont think it would be near the magnitude of a market crash with investors who are highly leveraged and/or pursue risky trading strategies due to manipulation of credit or the backing of large financial interests.
Basiley
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June 13, 2011, 03:33:49 PM
 #12

its market/people/society nature.
and yes, nothing/nobody stable under/aside moon/sun.
even love doesn't :/
/sarcasm off
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June 13, 2011, 03:51:02 PM
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It is my understanding that most "booms" happen due to injection of easy credit into the market, causing an unsustainable bubble. Those talking about a "crash" of bitcoins are not taking into consideration that there are no fancy financial instruments at play here, for the most part it is strictly cash and coins and not credit.  It's still possible that a correction is in order, but i dont think it would be near the magnitude of a market crash with investors who are highly leveraged and/or pursue risky trading strategies due to manipulation of credit or the backing of large financial interests.

I don't think the rise and fall of one narrow asset class can always be linked to easy/tight credit.  For instance the rise in Microsoft stock from the 1980s to the present was largely a function of growing profitability, though price fluctuations along the way may have been influenced by the availability of credit.

The price of bitcoin could be somewhat at the mercy of the credit markets.  For example if we have a repeat of 2008 and credit dries up it may force some holders of btc to sell in order to raise dollars/pounds/Euros etc. to pay their bills/mortgage.

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Vandroiy
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June 13, 2011, 07:52:53 PM
 #14

Why these overly difficult models?

It's simply over-speculation, no matter where the funds originate. Take something that has current intrinsic market value of a few cent, then talk about how it must be worth thousands in the future, generating arbitrary price jumps. This is a young, high-risk thing and everybody bets on some magical super-fast smooth way up. If that is being done for too long, market dynamics ensure someone gets hurt.



We should consider ourselves lucky if price comes down now, stabilizing things for Bitcoin traders. Imagine prices would have gone above 100 USD, with a massive hype fed by newcomers only, then running dry in days afterwards, generating a catastrophic crash! We do not want that to happen!
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June 13, 2011, 11:23:45 PM
 #15

I hope it stabilizes -- I was planning to sell something on the forums here but I decided to delete the post because the exchange rate was so unstable.
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