Upside breakout above ~$800 in Medium-Term...

[S3052]

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Bitcoin remains in the 600 - 610 $ range as the dull month of September approaches it's end and the new, more volatile month of October gets underway over the weekend.  While we are not expecting a sudden bout of volatility, we do think it will slowly creep back into the market as we get deeper into the month.  Until then, however, we think price action will remain subdued with the market staying within the 590 - 610 $ range, which is also where the symmetrical triangle trendlines are currently sitting.  As long as we stay in this area there won't be all that much to do on the trading front, although as this range tightens the likelihood of a breakout in either direction inevitably increases. 

Speaking of directionality, lets take a look at the 6-hour chart below for a glance at the short to medium term technicals.  As previously mentioned, price is still in the triangle consolidation off of the regional highs, and is also back in the upper half of the pivot zone.  Also notice that SCMR is painting neutral candles once again following what is still an active confirmed upside reversal, and we now have a fairly strong area of dynamic support sitting between 590 - 595 $.  Finally, the near term EMA's are still bullish for the time being, and the 200-period SMA is still pretty flat but is slightly bullish and supportive around 590 $.  This 590 $ level is now crucial considering it is becoming a confluence area which includes the triangle uptrend line, the 200 SMA, and the top of the OTE.

Moving on, we can see that the momentum oscillators remain mixed given that RSI and MACD are currently stuck at their centerlines, Willy is chopping around in no man's land (lockstep with price), and PPO is still neutral.  Additionally, trading volumes are picking up while the A/D line continues to push steadily to the upside, although there is also a large volume profile notch down between 575 - 590 $ that still is begging for some attention.  Despite a small technical bias to the upside, we think there are at least a few more days of sideways action.

To reiterate what we have been saying for the past few months, we think this period of stagnation remains an extended bull market consolidation which implies an eventual upside breakout above the ~800 $ regional high.  While we are not expecting this move to materialize over the next week, we do think that over the next few we could start to see some progress up and out of this range.  Having said that, there are still a bunch of resistance spiderwebs between 610 - 700 $ that should prove to be difficult to get through which is why we are still relatively cautious for the time being.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

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[justdimin]

Very in depth analysis.
The supporting upcoming events might be some European and south American countries' possible economic crisis in this fall. Before, when Greece had similar problem, we had seen some impact on bitcoin prices. Hopefully alternate investment might get stir up in upcoming days due to world economic slowdown.

[mindrust]

It is for sure that it is going to blow up in a direction upside or downside. Graphs say it will be downside but my heart says it will be up. Hard to decide but i will listen to my heart and keep my coins. I never believed in technical analysis anyway...

[Wind_FURY]

OP thanks for the in-depth analysis. To be honest the title plus this statement by you is confusing me "As long as we stay in this area there won't be all that much to do on the trading front, although as this range tightens the likelihood of a breakout in either direction inevitably increases."

What is the likelihood of Bitcoin going to $800 in the medium term if you use the price movement during the recent 2 months as basis? I do agree that there will not be that much trading if everything stays the same because for me the price has to go down first so that more accumulation can happen. At the present price and movement we see neither accumulation or selling and one has to give way to prop up trading again.

No offense but thinking about Bitcoin going to $800 for the medium term is too optimistic if we use the recent data as basis.

[lumeire]

It is for sure that it is going to blow up in a direction upside or downside. Graphs say it will be downside but my heart says it will be up. Hard to decide but i will listen to my heart and keep my coins. I never believed in technical analysis anyway...

That's one attitude that you gotta have I'd say that. Well at least you should keep those analyses at the back of your mind, not entirely dismiss them.

@ontopic, IMO the market's not gonna have a big move for awhile, not unless another news would shake it.

[~Bitcoin~]

It is for sure that it is going to blow up in a direction upside or downside. Graphs say it will be downside but my heart says it will be up. Hard to decide but i will listen to my heart and keep my coins. I never believed in technical analysis anyway...

I think better decision is to hold all bitcoin you have, price is testing $600 for several weeks now so upside move can be predicted. However to reach $800 it may require few more months.

[ArdiPrabowo]

i think in end year or early month next year
bitcoin price can up until reach every one bitcoin price to 800 dollar

[dunfida]

It is for sure that it is going to blow up in a direction upside or downside. Graphs say it will be downside but my heart says it will be up. Hard to decide but i will listen to my heart and keep my coins. I never believed in technical analysis anyway...

I think better decision is to hold all bitcoin you have, price is testing $600 for several weeks now so upside move can be predicted. However to reach $800 it may require few more months.

This thing i was expecting too that bitcoins price would probably rise  up  atlease $800 on year end  of 2016  thats  why  im saving  up  as much as i can   on my bitcoin  because it would somehow give me decent profits when that  particular price is  been reached by bitcoin.

[randy8777]

i doubt we'll even get to see the price touch the $700 levels again this year. there is nothing that traders can look forward to. and since this is a speculation driven market, certain happening are very important. they can make people buy, or decide to wait longer. and in this case, i am quite sure that people will continue the waiting game.

[DeathAngel]

Great analysis S3052, thanks for that. Above $800 in the medium term would be fantastic, I hope you're right there.
After a period of stability though anything over $700 would make me happy.

[afbitcoins]

I view upside breakout as more likely too. This fork has held for a while yet lets see how long bitcoin price stays within it

[talks_cheep]

Medium term?

800 is tops for the year 2016, will happen in November/December, probably December. We will see a huge crash in January 2017. I'm talking 250 in January.

[quake313]

Medium term?
We will see a huge crash in January 2017. I'm talking 250 in January.

250 is highly unlikely unless some very bad news hits. Chinese miners are probably barely making a profit at $600, at 250 it would be a complete disaster and probably spell the end of Bitcoin. It is too soon for that.

[Wind_FURY]

i doubt we'll even get to see the price touch the $700 levels again this year. there is nothing that traders can look forward to. and since this is a speculation driven market, certain happening are very important. they can make people buy, or decide to wait longer. and in this case, i am quite sure that people will continue the waiting game.

I agree, that is why in my past posts I believe it would be better for Bitcoin to go down to the lower $500s so that there will be new speculators will be encouraged to start buying again instead of waiting. New speculators in the economy means there is new money coming in. This price today is a sellers market and most traders are not willing to buy at these prices.

[maxhor]

Medium term?
We will see a huge crash in January 2017. I'm talking 250 in January.

250 is highly unlikely unless some very bad news hits. Chinese miners are probably barely making a profit at $600, at 250 it would be a complete disaster and probably spell the end of Bitcoin. It is too soon for that.

I don't think price will go down below than $590 as they are talking about January than it would go up to $700 and will be more stable like now it's around $600, that is why I am pretty sure that is not going to happen in near future.

[afbitcoins]

i doubt we'll even get to see the price touch the $700 levels again this year. there is nothing that traders can look forward to. and since this is a speculation driven market, certain happening are very important. they can make people buy, or decide to wait longer. and in this case, i am quite sure that people will continue the waiting game.

I agree, that is why in my past posts I believe it would be better for Bitcoin to go down to the lower $500s so that there will be new speculators will be encouraged to start buying again instead of waiting. New speculators in the economy means there is new money coming in. This price today is a sellers market and most traders are not willing to buy at these prices.

On the other hand if price starts rising new speculators will kick themselves not buying now and then rush in late.

[S3052]

and indeed, we predicted the breakout above 800$

[BitcoinBarrel]

Well done, incredible analysis. I have no idea what any of it means 

What does this breakout above $800 mean for 2017?

[rjclarke2000]

and indeed, we predicted the breakout above 800$

Do we get the next prediction?

[notme]

and indeed, we predicted the breakout above 800$

Do we get the next prediction?

Only if you pay up