Chart:
https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-28-2016Bitcoin Price Update for September 28, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
Bitcoin just can't seem to get out of the way of this 600 - 610 $ trading range, not for the time being at least. Despite the fact that we don't yet see the impetus for a significant move in either direction at this time, we do think the technicals are telegraphing at least a minor breakout from the current restrictive trading area. While we cannot rule out a break to the downside, we think it would be limited to our 570 - 580 $ buy zone. Conversely, we do think an upside breakout is more likely, but again would be surprised if the bulls can push price up through multiple resistance levels in the 630 - 680 $ area prior to an indicator recharge going into October.
Getting to the details of the analysis, we can see on the 12-hour chart below that price is incredibly close to breaking above the symmetrical triangle downtrend line which would resolve us out of the pattern. Notice how price is temporarily suspended between the triangle trendline and the pivot area on neutral SCMR candles and mixed market structure, telling us that there is not much more room to run sideways at this time. Additionally, SCMR is painting a double confirmed reversal following the cancellation from last weekend, typically a very powerful near term bullish signal, and the near term EMA's are trying to tick up slightly.
Moving on to momentum and volume, we can see that the oscillators remain mixed given Willy is moving up towards overbought territory while RSI continues to wander aimlessly around in no man's land, not to mention the fact that PPO is neutral but close to overbought and MACD continues to flirt with the zeroline. Regarding volume, the A/D line remains in an uptrend while global trading volumes continue to rise, however volume profile still leaves much to be desired considering the notch between 580 and 600 $ as well as how thin things get outside of the value area.
As we head into the latter half of the trading week, there are a few things to keep in mind. First of all, if the bulls can get through futures settlement tomorrow night while keeping price elevated above 600 $ then we will feel pretty good about our ProTrades going into the weekend. Practically speaking, any noticeable upside movement from here should spark a FOMO rally as we break above the triangle formation, however the previously mentioned 630, 650, and 680 $ levels will all prove very difficult to push through.
Having said that, we still have a tight stop on the VST trade in case things turn south unexpectedly, although we would not view this as such a bad thing either considering it would give us a chance to reload in the more attractive buy zones we have been mentioning for weeks. Either way, we feel we are well positioned as we progress towards what could be a relatively volatile weekend.
GLGT!
