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人民币国际化让比特币持续增值,很可能达到1000美元
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Topic: 人民币国际化让比特币持续增值,很可能达到1000美元 (Read 195 times)
healtheworld
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人民币国际化让比特币持续增值,很可能达到1000美元
October 10, 2016, 03:03:05 AM
#1
2016年10月1号,IMF把人民币纳入特别提款权的货币篮子 (SDR)。只有大国的货币才有资格被纳入,如今中国的货币成为了其中的一员:美元,英镑,日元,欧元和人民币。
IMF不可以再忽视世界第二大经济体的货币的存在。中国也在积极努力推进人民币国际化的进程。这意味着,中国会逐渐开放资本账户, 逐渐接受市场对人民币的定价。
中国并不是一个按部就班照搬国外做法的国家, 然而北京政府认识到人民币被添加到这个有象征意义的货币篮子,会进一步让他的经济正规化,通过这个方式进一步融入国际社会。
加入后人民币如何表现呢?今年人民币贬值了7%。大家一致认同人民币需要贬值。问题是贬值的步伐如何,以及最后贬值到什么程度。
中国热衷于以信贷刺激经济增长。政府认识到了这个问题,然而还是以这样方式发展。不是重工业就是家庭必需品生产部门,必须承担这些损失。对于北京政府来说,问题是重工业在政治地位上很强大的,更为重要的是有几百万的工人就职。政府的目标是保持社会稳定。所以,国有的银行仍然授信给国有工业和房地产公司。
中国不能够在人民币大量贬值的情况下持续地印制钞票。许多公司和个人为了逃离可能即将到来的通货膨胀而选择转移资产到国外。在IMF对人民币进行审核,以及加入SDR之前,中国就已经让人民币贬值了许多。 假如中国让人民币贬值30%,同时申请加入国际储备货币,会在国际社会上丢失颜面。要是你在中国生活足够久的话,你就会知道不管怎么样都不能丢失颜面。
外汇储备的数据明显说明资本大量外流,这是一个警告信号。然而中国的公司还继续全球大规模的收购和兼并。中国的公民还继续在全球的豪华住宅市场投资重金。加拿大的温哥华最近就颁布了一条法规,对外国人购买房产征收15%的税点,以此遏制贪婪的中国人的购买。
如今中国正式加入了这个SDR俱乐部, 可以使用更多的货币工具调节经济,就像Fed、ECB、 BOJ和BOE那样不失颜面地去实行。量化宽松就是印制钞票的一个委婉好听的名字。西方的银行家们很擅长这个。现在中国可以公开地玩这个游戏了。
交易员会密切关注中国人民银行(PBOC)在9:15发布的参考汇率。在人民币加入SDR后,第一周中国央行的做法会为以后树立榜样。现在美联储在11和12月提高利率的可能性增加了,我们相信中国央行会有更多的措施出台。年终的时候USD-CNY的汇率很可能会是7.00。
不要忘了欧洲。一家或者多家的银行可能会在第四季度倒闭。也许中国央行需要注入更多的钱以减轻对他们产生的影响。总的来说,由于黄金周放假,央行没有什么动作。下周就有有很多的消息出来。
这个趋势很明显,人民币跌了,比特币就涨了。 要是中国央行在第四季度贬值人民币,比特币就会从低迷中站起来,很可能会达到$1,000。
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人民币国际化让比特币持续增值,很可能达到1000美元
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