Will you invest in Chain-Bet.com bankroll?

[Bitcoin Gambling]

This is to gauge general investor's interest regarding https://www.chain-bet.com. We are operating since May 30, 2016. Here is our announcement thread - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1492457.0. We have got a few proposals to accept investment in bankroll. Lately, we are considering the same. We'd like to know how many of you would like to invest and if you do what would be the general range of investment...

Update: We are accepting private investments in the bankroll for test run. In case u want to invest 8 BTC, feel free to PM us or let us know in this thread.

[1714842598]

1714842598

[Albert Hamilton]

The board looks interesting. It is full of loss!

[Lutpin]

That's a 0 house edge game, right?
Why would anyone consider investing into something that gives you an expected profit of nada?

[DarkStar_]

I definitely would not, as I am expected to make absolutely no profit. I have investments in BitVest.io, Crypto-Games.net and BetKing.io because those games operate on a house edge, and I am expected to make a profit. Those games also have more volume as well, so profits would be more stable or losses would be lowered. By investing into a game with no expected profit, I'm exposing myself to more risk, for less reward.

[SyGambler]

That's a 0 house edge game, right?
Why would anyone consider investing into something that gives you an expected profit of nada?

is that really a 0 house edge game  maybe he is thinking about adding another game to the site ?
otherwise this would be totally a joke , why would someone invest in a 0 house edge and how is the site making money atm anyways 

[Albert Hamilton]

I definitely would not, as I am expected to make absolutely no profit. I have investments in BitVest.io, Crypto-Games.net and BetKing.io because those games operate on a house edge, and I am expected to make a profit. Those games also have more volume as well, so profits would be more stable or losses would be lowered. By investing into a game with no expected profit, I'm exposing myself to more risk, for less reward.

I think, u r mistaken. This guy has summed it up pretty well...

Personally, i think a casino game (any game) with a 0 percent house edge will either go bancrupt in the longrun, or will result in cheating...

i don't think so.

because people usually don't use good strategies and they are wasting their money in most of these gambling sites.

for example i have seen new dice sites that start off with a 0% house edge and there aren't that many winners on the site to win and bankrupt the casino.

house edge is like a guarantee in my opinion.

and also add to this, the fact that a lot of the gamblers will continue gambling when they win and if a losing streak hits them they lose all they have won so far.

If u still disagree, u may place bet and try to loot the bankroll of www.bitcoinbetting.website to get the hands on experience.

[Pif]

That's a 0 house edge game, right?
Why would anyone consider investing into something that gives you an expected profit of nada?

That's the point imo as : house edge , when volume is really big, is what we expect as return on investiment.

Zero HE = Zero ROI

[DarkStar_]

i don't think so.
because people usually don't use good strategies and they are wasting their money in most of these gambling sites.

Strategies don't affect the EV of a gambling game where it isn't PvP (bustabit, which has a PvP aspect can become +EV), so using a "good" strategy doesn't change the EV. Going all in at a 2x multiplier is probably more effective than maritangling to double your money, as you would be paying less of a house edge.

for example i have seen new dice sites that start off with a 0% house edge and there aren't that many winners on the site to win and bankrupt the casino.

It's about luck if it's a 0 EV site. The house isn't expected to make a profit, or lose, which makes sense that the site didn't get bankrupt.

house edge is like a guarantee in my opinion.

Safedice: Someone won a 2% chance bet with 2 BTC against a 7+% house edge, causing most investors to have a huge loss.

and also add to this, the fact that a lot of the gamblers will continue gambling when they win and if a losing streak hits them they lose all they have won so far.

Winning streaks might cause them to stop and cashout.

If u still disagree, u may place bet and try to loot the bankroll of www.bitcoinbetting.website to get the hands on experience.

That is the reason I'm not investing. Playing on bitcoinbetting.website has the same expected value as investing, which is 0. The truth is that the expected value is 0 - no expected profit or loss. Talking about strategies doesn't change anything, nor does quoting a post which doesn't affect the expected value at all. If your talking about profiting off of variance, I'd rather invest in SafeDice where the amount wagered is the highest proportionate to the bankroll, and experience high variance there with still and expected profit.

[arcathomas]

BitcoinBetting.website is not really a 0% edge game.
They take 0.0002 btc on each transaction, that's how they make money.
In fact, if you bet less than 0.02 btc, they take you more than 1% 

[DarkStar_]

BitcoinBetting.website is not really a 0% edge game.
They take 0.0002 btc on each transaction, that's how they make money.
In fact, if you bet less than 0.02 btc, they take you more than 1% 

Never noticed that before. I assumed their advertising was true (16x payout), but now that I look at it, it's false advertising. Betting 0.1BTC would get a 1.5968BTC profit if the bet won, which is a 15.96x multiplier. Just another reason to not invest - they falsely advertise payouts in an attempt to get more players. I suppose it would make it +EV for an investor, but I'm not sure if bitcoinbetting.website would give that to investors, and what fee they would take.

Assuming they keep the fees, think of it like this: (assuming you are the only investor)
You invest 100 BTC into both BetKing.io and BitcoinBetting.website.
Someone bets 1 BTC at BetKing.io - your expected profit from that bet is 0.01BTC (1% edge, not counting fees).
Someone bets 1 BTC at BitcoinBetting.website - your expected profit is 0BTC

[RocketSingh]

BitcoinBetting.website is not really a 0% edge game.
They take 0.0002 btc on each transaction, that's how they make money.
In fact, if you bet less than 0.02 btc, they take you more than 1% 

Nopes buddy. This has remotely anything to do with how they make money. Following is clearly stated in the FAQ.

7. Why is 0.0002 BTC missing from the bet amount I sent?

A transaction processing fee of 0.0002 BTC is deducted from each bet.

It is an on-chain game and 0.0002 BTC is used in mining fee.

For example, take the winning bet Tx of Bet ID: 515, i.e. https://blockchain.info/tx/26b04135e30c4dfce53de060477720875c191817f389c81e29f01ef466f6aaa3. The fee paid is 0.0002 BTC. Moreover, in each bet 0.0001 BTC seems to be going in mining fee to forward the bet amount, e.g. https://blockchain.info/tx/2bc2d1ad923806dac9b95ba842c6643e2523a6f84e98f71f56af6d39e95321e8.

[RHavar]

That's a 0 house edge game, right?
Why would anyone consider investing into something that gives you an expected profit of nada?

Maybe the idea of unbounded risk for 0 EV is appealing? AKA you're a gambler, and this is a cost-effective way to gamble? No idea


PevPot had 0EV gambling (actually positive EV) and was theoretically a sustainable business because it had no house risk (it was totally pvp) and the extra EV was from advertisers buying ads on the site). I guess that *might* work, but gamblers don't seem to care that much, they just want a good gambling experience.


Anyway, investing money in bitcoinbetting.website sounds like a horrible idea, even if you were doing it for gambling purposes. The whole point of investors is that you can offer bigger max wins, but as soon as bitcoinbetting.website max-win is > ~13 BTC, now miners can actually start to cheat on the website, and undetectably rip you off. The only thing that makes the site reasonably secure, is the prizes are small

[Albert Hamilton]

Anyway, investing money in bitcoinbetting.website sounds like a horrible idea, even if you were doing it for gambling purposes. The whole point of investors is that you can offer bigger max wins, but as soon as bitcoinbetting.website max-win is > ~13 BTC, now miners can actually start to cheat on the website, and undetectably rip you off. The only thing that makes the site reasonably secure, is the prizes are small

Nopes. Whatever be the max-win, miners can not cheat without risking 12.5 BTC loss at their end. It has been thoroughly discussed in this thread - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493510.0 and this guy has summed it up pretty well...

I think the "threshold" for risking losing 99.99% of earning 12.5 BTC is a gamble of how many percent of their hashpower is to the total network of about double or triple. Or 25 BTC. Or more.

No miner in his right mind will give up the current block reward for anything less than double or triple that. I think no miner would give up 12.5 BTC unless the gamble has a higher than 50% chance of earning 25 BTC, or a higher than 75% of earning 50 BTC (if the bet or prize gets that big).

Now if the last digit of a block hash is used in conjunction with a secret, then the website owner would have to collude with a large or strong miner or a pool.

Currently, there is no known single pool or sufficiently large solo miner that has the hashpower to even consider this kind of attack, plus it is a gamble, so why would they do it?

So, the winning amount, i.e. 16 BTC, is more than a block reward, i.e. 12.5 BTC. Do u think, miners may hold a block now if they place 1 BTC bet with a wrong choice? Appears impossible to me...

Nope. Too risky for a winning amount that small. I'd rather take the 12.5 BTC because I have that now. (not even guaranteed).

[RHavar]

Nopes. Whatever be the max-win, miners can not cheat without risking 12.5 BTC loss at their end.

Sure, that's correct. I mispoke about max profit, it's more related to the max bet, but the logic still is sound. Block discarding (throwing away 12.5 (+ fees) btc) is often the economical choice, if the bet is big enough and you're a big enough miner. Especially so in low-payout bets.

[ricky ryaan]

nope

[DarkStar_]

It is an on-chain game and 0.0002 BTC is used in mining fee.

No, it's a "transaction processing fee". Look at Bet #530 or any other bet that lost.


The bet amount is 0.0006BTC, and the transaction that was given is 981f3689d2ef7e8f477948ea17287eb90472ab189d3c803cb05478b076a3bb64

There are 2 outputs - one of 0.0008BTC, and one of 0.008BTC. It would seem logical to assume that the 0.0008BTC was the bet, right? Why would they need to pay the miners fee if the bet lost? Actual 12x payout for this example btw, not the 16x they advertise.

[RocketSingh]

It is an on-chain game and 0.0002 BTC is used in mining fee.

No, it's a "transaction processing fee". Look at Bet #530 or any other bet that lost.


The bet amount is 0.0006BTC, and the transaction that was given is 981f3689d2ef7e8f477948ea17287eb90472ab189d3c803cb05478b076a3bb64

There are 2 outputs - one of 0.0008BTC, and one of 0.008BTC. It would seem logical to assume that the 0.0008BTC was the bet, right? Why would they need to pay the miners fee if the bet lost? Actual 12x payout for this example btw, not the 16x they advertise.

Your assumption that mining fee is not required for a lost bet is incorrect. Let us see how in your example...

First this address was created - https://blockchain.info/address/1J9uBy5ba1pqtXfYfxzzAxK74qUK1sAfo1

User sent the Tx to this address - https://blockchain.info/tx/981f3689d2ef7e8f477948ea17287eb90472ab189d3c803cb05478b076a3bb64 (User paid the mining fee of 0.000117 BTC)

This address forwarded the fee to the hot wallet - https://blockchain.info/tx/156a3a82fd231097ea41955f8e5f9c122c055f392179507209ba6404de96f927 (House paid the mining fee of 0.0001 BTC)

So, just to accept a lost bet, house already paid 0.0001 BTC. Now remains another 0.0001 BTC from the Tx processing fee of 0.0002 BTC they mentioned in their FAQ.

Whenever, a winning bet is paid, all these small bets are accumulated and paid from the hot wallet. This increases the Tx size and hence the mining fee required for quick confirmation. So, let us have a look at the latest winning bet right now, i.e. Bet #537.

Wining Tx: https://blockchain.info/tx/0e6af2f890bac066d349c2b56fff45aa62ddac0fd8b2a5706e5d5212ea5295d9

Tx fee: 0.0002 BTC

For this, bet 0.0001 BTC was already with the house from the deposit of the winner of Bet #537. But, who'll pay the rest of 0.0001 BTC? That is taken from the loser of Bet #530. That is how it is compensated.

This is why I said 0.0002 BTC is used in mining fee. I hope it makes sense now.

[DarkStar_]

Sending the funds to your hot wallet and to other players should be paid by those players, and you. Definitely not by the person who lost money. Take luckyb.it for example - they pay 0.0002BTC for transaction fees, and charge the player 0.0001BTC if they win. I don't expect you to cover the fees to send funds back, but luckyb.it doesn't charge you fees for losing bets. Really dumb model imo.

You don't need to forward it to your hot wallet, nor do you need to pay winning funds with micro transactions. What Cloudbet does (not an on chain game, but still...) is they consolidate a bunch of small inputs from time to time, to form larger inputs at less busy hours where they can get it confirmed with no fee or as little as 0.0001BTC for 10+ inputs.

AFAIK, no gambling sites require you to pay BTC if you lose to forward the BTC to other hot wallet addresses and to forward it to other winners.

[RHavar]

AFAIK, no gambling sites require you to pay BTC if you lose to forward the BTC to other hot wallet addresses and to forward it to other winners.

It's not an unreasonable fee, every transaction sent to the site directly costs them money, as eventually those inputs will need to be sent. And what makes it worse, is that most of the best have a low probability of winning, it makes it even more expensive for them to spend. Most other sites can eat that cost themselves because they have a house edge, and it's just a cost of doing business.  But it's not unreasonable for them to not want to run the site at a loss, so I think the fee is justified.

(But for instance, I'd had to ban accounts on my site that have made hundreds or thousands of deposits but never actually gamble, because they're just directly costing me money. A more natural thing would be to have a small deposit fee, but players would revolt against it because it's not standard)

[Bitspenser]

AFAIK, no gambling sites require you to pay BTC if you lose to forward the BTC to other hot wallet addresses and to forward it to other winners.

It's not an unreasonable fee, every transaction sent to the site directly costs them money, as eventually those inputs will need to be sent. And what makes it worse, is that most of the best have a low probability of winning, it makes it even more expensive for them to spend. Most other sites can eat that cost themselves because they have a house edge, and it's just a cost of doing business.  But it's not unreasonable for them to not want to run the site at a loss, so I think the fee is justified.

(But for instance, I'd had to ban accounts on my site that have made hundreds or thousands of deposits but never actually gamble, because they're just directly costing me money. A more natural thing would be to have a small deposit fee, but players would revolt against it because it's not standard)

I agree that it isn't unreasonable, but I think they should just add a house edge (ie 1% - x15.84 payout). The fee hurts small players the most, like DarkStar mentioned

There are 2 outputs - one of 0.0008BTC, and one of 0.008BTC. It would seem logical to assume that the 0.0008BTC was the bet, right? Why would they need to pay the miners fee if the bet lost? Actual 12x payout for this example btw, not the 16x they advertise.

I don't think large players would mind that much, and will attract more small players to come. Making them pay a fee on returns is still fine.