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【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
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Topic: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值 (Read 1485 times)
Gufeng
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【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
April 01, 2013, 11:50:37 PM
#1
这里的比特币,泛指所有去中心化的p2p加密货币。
1,首先是设计架构,总数一定,必然是通缩属性。4年产量减半,也意味着,币值至少4年翻倍。
维护团队的强弱,也影响到用户对比特币的信心。
2,矿工数量越多,难度越大,挖矿成本越高,币值也越高。因为如果币值低于挖矿成本,矿工会惜售。
3,流通度越高,交易市场对比特币的数量需求越高,币值也会越高。周边应用,支持比特币的商家数量,都影响到比特币币值。目前除了btc,其他山寨币的周边应用几乎为零,这也决定了山寨币目前只能跟跑。
4,媒体曝光度。比特币目前还是极少数人在玩,总数也就几十万人。大型知名媒体曝光一次,币值蹿升好几天。
实体货币,金融业负面消息越多,比特币越值钱。
hxtop
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
April 03, 2013, 07:20:32 AM
#2
Quote from: Gufeng on April 01, 2013, 11:50:37 PM
这里的比特币,泛指所有去中心化的p2p加密货币。
1,首先是设计架构,总数一定,必然是通缩属性。4年产量减半,也意味着,币值至少4年翻倍。
维护团队的强弱,也影响到用户对比特币的信心。
2,矿工数量越多,难度越大,挖矿成本越高,币值也越高。因为如果币值低于挖矿成本,矿工会惜售。
3,流通度越高,交易市场对比特币的数量需求越高,币值也会越高。周边应用,支持比特币的商家数量,都影响到比特币币值。目前除了btc,其他山寨币的周边应用几乎为零,这也决定了山寨币目前只能跟跑。
4,媒体曝光度。比特币目前还是极少数人在玩,总数也就几十万人。大型知名媒体曝光一次,币值蹿升好几天。
实体货币,金融业负面消息越多,比特币越值钱。
第三点和四点最重要.1,2都好办,技术上可以解决的..
Gufeng
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 10, 2013, 04:21:52 AM
#3
Quote from: hxtop on April 03, 2013, 07:20:32 AM
第三点和四点最重要.1,2都好办,技术上可以解决的..
第二点不容易,矿工入流水,那个赚钱挖那个
fpdesnds
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 10, 2013, 01:07:32 PM
#4
学习一下。
why8520
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 10, 2013, 01:24:32 PM
#5
总结的不错。学习了
wdq4587
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 11, 2013, 03:14:08 AM
#6
去中心虚拟化货币没有锚定价值,流通度是其价值根本的决定因素。
1. 和法币间稳定的兑换汇率会提高其流通度,而汇率是否稳定和流通度成正比;
2. 技术局限和缺陷会影响流通度,比如网络攻击、钱包丢失等,而可伸缩性我认为是最核心的,我觉得采用一本帐模式的所有币都会遇到规模瓶颈;
3. 竞争性虚拟货币的出现会增加整个虚拟货币的市场份额,但是长远看必然会摊薄旧币的价值。
虚拟币的核心问题是没有不可替代性,最近出现的BTC克隆BTE就很好地证明了这点。所以占有率是第一位的,但是忠诚度不是必然的,这要看转向的代价,代价低而 新币优势明显,就会造成旧币持续失血、新币明显成长。除非一种币已无太多局限和缺陷,后来者难以竞争,这时候就会进入强者愈强的局面,但仍然不排除竞争优势差不多的多币共存,如《货币的非国家化》设想的那样,因为共存的代价显然不高。
回过头来说忠诚度,什么样的币能发展快,忠诚度高?我认为不随时间推移或用户规模增加而获取难度明显增加的币最有可能尽快占领市场,但这初看起来和发行总额限定的目标是矛盾的。所以以我目前能设想的,以给每个能参与的实体的人分同样一份钱比较理想,从经济学的角度看把通胀和通缩减到最低,当然为了满足限额要求,也许开始十几年每人一样,后面肯定要递减到零。我希望能有人从理论角度想出更理想的模式。而不是目前这些怎么看都是象庞氏骗局的模式。
zmzmdcf
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 11, 2013, 03:19:29 AM
#7
看了下LZ写的,我比较认同第3条
xjyjh01
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 12, 2013, 02:00:09 PM
#8
说得很好,我觉得关键还是中国,要知道中国人是最喜欢炒作的了!
NXT-PZLE-HPVZ-2EBX-9UN7E
mcpunk
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 14, 2013, 02:19:19 AM
#9
这个有待研究,参考吧!
cjianwei220
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 14, 2013, 10:35:43 AM
#10
流通度到了一定的程度,政府是不可能放任一个虚拟货币影响干扰实体经济的,但是当政府介入的时候,此虚拟货币的价值应该也就非常高了,那时他的流通度也应该是相当高的
Tgspring
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 14, 2013, 11:04:37 AM
#11
感觉这个东西只适合炒作,不适合流通。就像黄金一样。。。
thunderdrum
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 14, 2013, 11:42:08 AM
#12
确实~ 目前谈形成气候尚早
This is the best project in crypto----DarkCoin. Time will tell and don't blame you miss it.
FAQ
nolanhuang
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Re: 【研究会】4点因素决定比特币的价值
May 16, 2013, 06:55:37 AM
#13
关键是应用要跟得上,也要小心某种山寨比的认可度超过比特币的可能,否则比特币就是郁金香
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