The trend of “long transaction chains”

[Brandsen]

Please take a look on these two charts:

A: Confirmed Transactions Per Day:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=2years

B: Number Of Transactions Excluding Chains Longer Than 100:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100?timespan=2years

Long chains have been steadily decreasing, but still, about 1/3 of all transactions takes part in long chains. (And yes, I do know that there are some legitimate reasons...but I believe better solutions are coming..)

I’m mostly just speculating here, but it seems to me that the downward trend of “long transaction chains” may be a result of increasing fee levels..

If so, this behavior is slowly being priced out of the blockchain...

But lets say the blocksize limit is doubled tomorrow…

If we assume that a doubling of the blocksize will result in fees getting halved..

What do you think will happen to the trend of “long transaction chains” ?

If the fee is cut in half wouldn't that stimulate a doubling of this phenomenon?

I believe that people who need bitcoin are more than willing to pay to use it.
I also believe that people who don’t need bitcoin are not going to start using it just because it is free or very cheap.

Maybe it is a good thing that the behavior of “long transaction chains” is being priced out of the blockchain…?


Thanks for reading my post!

All feedback is appreciated!

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[philipma1957]

I do not see what you see.

Long chains are pretty flat.


we are doing about 200-250 k transactions every day since Jan 2016  that 250k number is very close to the most we can do under current header size at 590k is all 1 transaction blocks  so we cap near 250k.  the ½ ing does not effect that.



we are doing about 100 -125 k transaction every day since Jan 2016 to May 2016 under 100

then about  125 - 150 k transaction every day since May 2016 under 100


so it appears at first you are correct but you are simply leaving out the ½ ing   influence  .


so if  we did reduce  larger chains  from  say 150k of 250k  to 100 k of 250 k my guess is the ½ ing is why.  Also many large pools simply get bigger and have a bigger chain when they pay.  here is a medium small pool 1 block chain


https://blockchain.info/tx/3efc6be8bad78471073a128eb3084b9e9a8260515293e094ad982c221d195f34


this has more then 100 in it .

so bigger pools like f2pool have bigger ones then that.  and they confirm there own block it reduces  the  the big chains a bit.  not the one chain it may be 400 or 500 big

but the number is less.  say 10 of 800  vs 50 of 160

[Brandsen]

I do not see what you see.

Long chains are pretty flat.

I should have phrased it better…
Out of all transactions within blocks; the percentage consisting of “long transaction chains” is decreasing..